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Šamorín v Humenné

Šamorín

2–1Full time

Humenné

Cup · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 16:01

Šamorín 2–1 Humenné ŠAMORÍN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Šamorín win~~45%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.449

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.142

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Šamorín win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Šamorín 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–29
1′KICK-OFF Šamorín v Humenné
1′⚽ GOAL · 2' Šamorín 1–0 Humenné
2′A goal for Šamorín on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–17–12
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Šamorín win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
4′We said Šamorín at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–18–12
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
41′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Šamorín
45′HALF-TIME Šamorín 1–0 Humenné
45′SECOND HALF Šamorín 1–0 Humenné
47′We said Šamorín at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Šamorín win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
53′54′ and it is 1–1: Humenné have scored. 1–1 · 33–43–24
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Šamorín 1–1 Humenné
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Šamorín win: 45% at kick-off, 33% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Šamorín win 33%)
55′We said Šamorín at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–44–23
59′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 78–18–4
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Šamorín 2–1 Humenné · M. Ranko
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Šamorín win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Šamorín win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
59′GOAL DISALLOWED · 59' Šamorín
59′⚽ GOAL · 60' Šamorín 2–1 Humenné
60′GOAL DISALLOWED · 60' Šamorín
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Šamorín 2–1 Humenné · M. Ranko
61′Šamorín find the net on 60′. 1–1. 1–1 · 29–49–21
61′GOAL DISALLOWED · 61' Šamorín
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Šamorín 2–1 Humenné · M. Ranko
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Šamorín win: 45% at kick-off, 29% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Šamorín win 29%)
62′GOAL DISALLOWED · 62' Šamorín
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Šamorín win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Šamorín win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
66′We said Šamorín at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 2–1 · 81–16–3
74′We said Šamorín at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Šamorín win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
78′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Humenné
82′We said Šamorín at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–1 · 91–8–0
83′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Šamorín
88′We said Šamorín at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Šamorín win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
88′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Šamorín
FTFULL TIME Šamorín 2–1 Humenné
FTŠamorín 2–1 Humenné · Šamorín win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Šamorín v HumennéBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 13:01 · locked at kick-off

Šamorín win45%

Draw26%

Humenné win29%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 13:30

Line-ups

Šamorín

Humenné

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Šamorín

Humenné

36Days since last match42

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
25	Šamorín	2	+2	6
35	Humenné	2	+1	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Šamorín

Formation not confirmed

12 V. Kaltsas

25 S. Barro

6 A. Konan

14 M. Ranko

22 M. Kucman

8 L. Bubuteishvili

29 S. Useni

9 O. Ihejirika

4 A. Avetisyan

11 S. Bednar

7 D. Pavuk

Coach · Michal Kuruc

Substitutes

23 · V. Bajtos

66 · P. Varga

38 · A. Hudok

5 · S. Varga

88 · L. Khozrevanidze

15 · N. Kapus

18 · G. Marek

24 · S. Simpore

20 · K. Blasko

Humenné

Formation not confirmed

13 E. Karaj

29 V. Matas

5 L. Zincak

3 P. Lazar

17 M. Zlacky

19 I. Komjaty

14 S. Ninac

23 M. Sarr

16 F. Sitarcik

26 Z. Zahradnik

7 B. S. Kozak

Coach · Miroslav Nemec

Substitutes

24 · J. Straka

9 · M. Bega

77 · O. Vyshnevskyi

8 · C. Vasil

40 · Mateus

18 · S. Kost

1 · M. Breda

Our number · šamorín winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 13:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market69%

Us45%

~~Market~~69%

We make Šamorín a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 24 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Šamorín v Humenné~~1.57 – 1.21

~~Last six in Cup~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 4~~25 v 35

~~The market · Šamorín win~~69% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · šamorín win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Šamorín win	45%	69%	−24
Draw	26%	19%	+7
Humenné win	29%	12%	+17
Over 2.5 goals	53%	63%	−10
Both teams to score	56%	53%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	80%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	43%	−12
Šamorín or draw	71%	88%	−17
Šamorín clean sheet	30%	–	–
Humenné clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.6 7.1 4.5 1 9.4 12.2 7.1 2.9 2 7.7 9.3 5.6 2.3 3 4.0 4.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Šamorín down, Humenné across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Šamorín play in the 2. liga, Humenné in the 3. liga - East.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Šamorín are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Šamorín, 1.21 for Humenné. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Cup since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Cup

ŠAMORÍN

LWWDWW1–2 · 4–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

HUMENNÉ

WWWLWD2–0 · 6–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Čadca	3	+12	9
2	Zemplín Michalovce	3	+8	9
3	Podbrezová	3	+6	9
4	Nové Zámky	3	+5	7
5	Žilina	2	+13	6
6	FK Košice	2	+12	6
7	Slovan Bratislava	2	+10	6
8	Tatran Prešov	3	+8	6
9	AS Trencin	2	+8	6
10	Lokomotíva Zvolen	2	+8	6
11	Komárno	2	+7	6
12	Lokomotíva Košice	2	+7	6
13	Ružomberok	2	+7	6
14	Pohronie	2	+6	6
15	Spartak Trnava	2	+5	6
16	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	3	+4	6
17	Veľké Ludince	2	+4	6
18	Skalica	2	+4	6
19	Dukla Banská Bystrica	2	+4	6
20	Považská Bystrica	2	+3	6
21	Spartak Myjava	2	+3	6
22	Liptovský Mikuláš	2	+3	6
23	Svätý Jur	3	+2	6
24	Inter Bratislava	3	+2	6
25	Šamorín	2	+2	6
26	Piešťany	2	+7	4
27	MSK Tesla Stropkov	2	+5	4
28	Petržalka	2	+4	4
29	Námestovo	2	+4	4
30	Nová Baňa	2	+2	4
31	Beluša	2	+2	4
32	Zlaté Moravce	2	+2	4
33	MFK Bytča	2	+2	4
34	Vranov nad Topľou	2	+1	4
35	Humenné	2	+1	4
36	Kostolné Kračany	2	+1	4
37	Slovan Duslo Šaľa	2	+1	4
38	Dunajska Streda	2	+12	3
39	Partizán Bardejov	2	+3	3
40	Dunajská Lužná	2	+3	3
41	Novohrad Lučenec	2	+3	3
42	Spišská Nová Ves	2	+3	3
43	Galanta	2	+2	3
44	Fiľakovo	2	+2	3
45	Rača	2	+2	3
46	Boleráz	1	+2	3
47	Tomášov	2	+1	3
48	Fomat Martin	2	0	3
49	Druzstevnik Latky	2	0	3
50	Baník Prievidza	2	0	3
51	Oravské Veselé	2	0	3
52	Púchov	2	0	3
53	Kysucké Nové Mesto	2	0	3
54	Nitra	2	0	3
55	Slávia TU Košice	2	0	3
56	Poprad	2	0	3
57	Brezno	2	−1	3
58	Šoporňa	2	−1	3
59	Spartak Medzev	2	−1	3
60	Slovan Vavrečka	2	−3	3
61	Zahradne	1	0	1
62	Ostrovany	1	0	1
63	Sokol Brezovica	1	0	1
64	Hranovnica	1	0	1
65	Podkonice	1	0	1
66	Levoča	2	−2	1
67	Tatran Krásno	2	−2	1
68	Harichovce	2	−7	1
69	Slovan Kendice	2	−8	1
70	Jelka	1	−1	0
71	Malženice	1	−1	0
72	Partizán Osrblie	1	−1	0
73	Rožňava	1	−1	0
74	Snina	1	−1	0
75	Gerlachov	1	−1	0
76	Kovarce	1	−1	0
77	Nové Mesto nad Váhom	1	−1	0
78	Rohožník	1	−1	0
79	Dynamo Diviaky	1	−2	0
80	Gabčíkovo	1	−2	0
81	Holíč	1	−2	0
82	Priehrada	1	−2	0
83	Príbelce	1	−2	0
84	Rovnost Krajne	1	−2	0
85	Dolné Krškany	1	−2	0
86	Družstevník Bešeňov	1	−2	0
87	Lovca	1	−2	0
88	Oravan	1	−2	0
89	Priechod	1	−2	0
90	Rosina	1	−2	0
91	Sokol Borský Mikuláš	1	−2	0
92	Starý Smokovec	1	−2	0
93	Tvrdošín	1	−2	0
94	Závažná Poruba	1	−2	0
95	Spartak Kvašov	1	−3	0
96	Baník Kalinovo	1	−3	0
97	Jakubov	1	−3	0
98	Vycapy Opatovce	1	−3	0
99	Zitavany	1	−3	0
100	Bernolákovo	1	−3	0
101	Družstevník Čirč	1	−3	0
102	Kechnec	1	−3	0
103	Rudňany	1	−3	0
104	Trenčianske Stankovce	1	−3	0
105	V. Kapusany	1	−3	0
106	Slovan Giraltovce	1	−4	0
107	Malinovo	1	−4	0
108	Nová Dedinka	1	−4	0
109	Geča	1	−4	0
110	Hronec	1	−4	0
111	Kováčová	1	−4	0
112	Vinohrad Čebovce	1	−4	0
113	Višňové	1	−4	0
114	Čaňa	1	−4	0
115	Šenkvice	1	−4	0
116	Cicarovce	1	−5	0
117	FC Topoľčany	1	−5	0
118	Raslavice	1	−5	0
119	Slovan Halic	1	−5	0
120	Slovan Tomášovce	1	−5	0
121	Spišské Podhradie	1	−5	0
122	Jednota Bánová	1	−6	0
123	Kopčany	1	−7	0
124	Kysučan Korňa	1	−7	0
125	Divina	1	−8	0
126	Slovan Nitra-Chrenová	1	−8	0
127	Svaty Peter	1	−13	0