Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Cup › Liptovský Mikuláš v Skalica

Back
Slovakia flag

Liptovský Mikuláš v Skalica

Liptovský Mikuláš
0–0After penalties
Skalica

Cup · TUE 20 OCT

After 90 minutesGraded 20 Oct 18:31
Liptovský Mikuláš 0–0 Skalica SKALICA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Skalica win48%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.858
The market’s Brier score0.801

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 0–0, the score after 90 minutes. Skalica won 3–5 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Skalica win at 48%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Skalica 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 26–26–48
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Liptovský Mikuláš v Skalica
  4. 38′PENALTY MISSED · 38' Skalica
  5. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Skalica win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Liptovský Mikuláš 0–0 Skalica
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Liptovský Mikuláš 0–0 Skalica
  8. 50′We said Skalica at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 23–41–36
  9. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Skalica win 39%)
  10. 54′We said Skalica at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 22–44–34
  11. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 22–45–34
  12. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Liptovský Mikuláš
  13. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Skalica · On: A. Morong · Off: A. Abdullahi
  14. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Skalica · On: D. Baris · Off: A. Ravas
  15. 63′We said Skalica at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 19–51–29
  16. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Skalica win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
  17. 70′We said Skalica at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 16–59–24
  18. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Skalica · On: M. Gulisek · Off: M. Masik
  19. 76′We said Skalica at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 13–68–19
  20. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Liptovský Mikuláš · On: E. Okonji · Off: A. Daneji
  21. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Skalica win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
  22. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Liptovský Mikuláš · On: S. Mojcak · Off: L. Laura
  23. 81′We said Skalica at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 9–77–13
  24. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Skalica · On: R. Potocny · Off: E. Eshele
  25. 85′We said Skalica at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 6–85–9
  26. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Skalica win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
  27. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Skalica
  28. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 49%. 0–0 · 20–49–31
  29. 91′We said Skalica at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
  30. 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  31. FTFULL TIME Liptovský Mikuláš 0–0 Skalica
  32. FTLiptovský Mikuláš 0–0 Skalica after 90 minutes, as graded · Skalica win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Skalica are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Liptovský Mikuláš 26%, draw 25%, Skalica 48%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Liptovský Mikuláš v SkalicaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Liptovský Mikuláš win26%
Draw25%
Skalica win48%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 16:00

RoundRound of 32

Line-ups

Liptovský Mikuláš

Skalica

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Liptovský Mikuláš

Skalica

4Days since last match3

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. liga

Last match: 17 Oct · the Slovak Super Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Liptovský Mikuláš

Formation not confirmed

30 A. Slancik

22 S. Chlepko

28 M. Piter-Bucko

23 T. Hak

4 P. Majercik

21 S. Kucharik

6 M. Sot

10 R. Bartos

27 A. Daneji

11 T. Stas

19 L. Laura

Coach · Marek Petrus

Substitutes

1 · J. Novak

14 · L. Fedor

8 · T. Gerat

20 · Rafael Freitas

24 · L. Jendrek

7 · A. Macejko

17 · E. Okonji

15 · S. Mojcak

Skalica

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Ludha

8 L. Simko

20 O. Podhorin

4 M. Macorig

13 S. Sula

5 M. Ryzek

19 M. Masik

11 A. Krizan

30 A. Abdullahi

21 A. Ravas

34 E. Eshele

Coach · Stanislav Macek

Substitutes

39 · M. Junas

6 · P. Karhan

26 · P. Guinari

27 · D. Baris

91 · R. Potocny

23 · E. Daniel

3 · M. Cernek

9 · A. Morong

14 · M. Gulisek

Our number · skalica winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
48% The market43%
Us48%
Market43%

We make Skalica a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Liptovský Mikuláš v Skalica1.14 – 1.62
Form · Cup this season · since 19 AugW2 D0 L0 · W2 D0 L0
The market · Skalica win43% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 15:43
Our probability · Skalica win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Liptovský Mikuláš win26%30%−4
Draw25%27%−2
Skalica win48%43%+5
Over 2.5 goals52%51%+1
Both teams to score55%56%−1
Over 1.5 goals77%74%+3
Over 3.5 goals30%33%−3
Liptovský Mikuláš or draw52%57%−5
Liptovský Mikuláš clean sheet20%––
Skalica clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%
0123450 6.7 9.9 8.3 4.5 1 6.8 12.1 9.5 5.1 2.1 2 4.1 6.7 5.4 2.9 3 2.5 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Liptovský Mikuláš down, Skalica across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.80
Over 2.54 of 5
Both scored1 of 5
Last meetingsSKA 4–0 LIP · LIP 0–3 SKA · LIP 2–2 SKA · SKA 3–0 LIP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 19 Aug

LIPTOVSKÝ MIKULÁŠ

WW1–0 · 2–0

SKALICA

WW1–0 · 4–1