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Nitra v Rača

Nitra

6–0Full time

Rača

3. liga - West · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Nitra 6–0 Rača NITRA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nitra win~~78%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.075

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.077

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Nitra win78%

Draw14%

Rača win9%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nitra winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

78% The market78%

Us78%

~~Market~~78%

We make Nitra a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 3.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nitra win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nitra win	78%	78%	0
Draw	14%	14%	0
Rača win	9%	8%	0
Over 2.5 goals	74%	67%	+6
Both teams to score	56%	49%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	89%	86%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	54%	49%	+5
Nitra or draw	91%	92%	0
Nitra clean sheet	41%	–	–
Rača clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 8.9%

0123450 2.8 1 6.0 6.0 2.6 2 8.9 7.8 3.6 3 8.5 7.5 3.4 4 6.4 5.6 2.5 5 4.0 3.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nitra down, Rača across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,354 3. liga - West matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. liga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Nitra at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Rača away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.06 goals for Nitra, 0.91 for Rača. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. liga - West

NITRA

WWWWWW2–0 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 4–0 · 4–2

RAČA

LWDWDD1–2 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nitra	9	+23	25
2	Púchov	9	+13	18
3	Spartak Myjava	10	+7	18
4	Beluša	9	+8	16
5	Dunajská Lužná	9	+2	15
6	Gabčíkovo	9	+2	14
7	Trenčín II	9	+2	13
8	Baník Prievidza	9	0	12
9	Nové Zámky	9	−5	12
10	DAC II	9	+4	11
11	Rača	9	−2	10
12	MŠK Senec	9	−9	9
13	Častkovce	10	−8	8
14	Komárno II	9	−13	8
15	Slovan Duslo Šaľa	9	−9	6
16	Veľké Ludince	9	−15	6