MŠK Senec v Nové Zámky prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40

MŠK Senec 1–0 Nové Zámky MŠK SENEC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said MŠK Senec win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.482

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

MŠK Senec are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: MŠK Senec 43%, draw 28%, Nové Zámky 29%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on MŠK Senec v Nové ZámkyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

MŠK Senec win43%

Draw28%

Nové Zámky win29%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:30

RoundWest · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

MŠK Senec

Nové Zámky

6Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - West

Last match: 13 Oct · the Slovak Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Nové Zámky	10	−4	15
13	MŠK Senec	10	−11	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mšk senec winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:06 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make MŠK Senec a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · MŠK Senec v Nové Zámky~~1.43 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - West this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 15~~13 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · MŠK Senec win

Published at 44%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MŠK Senec win	43%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Nové Zámky win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
MŠK Senec or draw	71%	–	–
MŠK Senec clean sheet	33%	–	–
Nové Zámky clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.0 8.1 5.0 1 10.4 12.9 6.8 2.6 2 8.0 8.6 4.8 3 3.9 4.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MŠK Senec down, Nové Zámky across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,361 3. liga - West matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

MŠK Senec at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Nové Zámky away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for MŠK Senec, 1.12 for Nové Zámky. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MSK 3–0 NOV · NOV 2–0 MSK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - West this season · since 4 Sept

MŠK SENEC

LLWLLL0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 1–3

NOVÉ ZÁMKY

WLLLDW2–1 · 1–3 · 1–5 · 2–5 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nitra	10	+29	28
2	Púchov	10	+13	19
3	Spartak Myjava	10	+7	18
4	Dunajská Lužná	10	+5	18
5	Beluša	10	+8	17
6	Nové Zámky	10	−4	15
7	Trenčín II	10	+2	14
8	Gabčíkovo	10	+1	14
9	Baník Prievidza	10	0	13
10	DAC II	10	+1	11
11	Komárno II	10	−12	11
12	Rača	10	−8	10
13	MŠK Senec	10	−11	9
14	Veľké Ludince	10	−13	9
15	Častkovce	10	−8	8
16	Slovan Duslo Šaľa	10	−10	6