MŠK Senec v Beluša prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30

MŠK Senec 2–2 Beluša BELUŠA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Beluša win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.797

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Beluša win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF MŠK Senec v Beluša
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' MŠK Senec 0–1 Beluša
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Beluša win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Beluša win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
31′🟥 RED CARD · 31' Beluša
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' MŠK Senec 1–1 Beluša
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Beluša win: 39% at kick-off, 35% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Beluša win 35%)
45′SECOND HALF MŠK Senec 1–2 Beluša
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' MŠK Senec 1–2 Beluša
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Beluša win: 39% at kick-off, 72% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Beluša win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 41%)
48′HALF-TIME MŠK Senec 1–2 Beluša
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Beluša win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Beluša win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
82′🟥 RED CARD · 82' MŠK Senec
83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Beluša
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' MŠK Senec 2–2 Beluša
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Beluša win: 39% at kick-off, 6% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Beluša win 95%)
FTFULL TIME MŠK Senec 2–2 Beluša
FTMŠK Senec 2–2 Beluša · Beluša win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Beluša are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: MŠK Senec 34%, draw 27%, Beluša 39%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on MŠK Senec v BelušaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

MŠK Senec win34%

Draw27%

Beluša win39%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 17:30

RoundWest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

MŠK Senec

Beluša

5Days since last match3

Last match: 16 Oct · 3. liga - West

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. liga - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Beluša	11	+6	17
12	MŠK Senec	11	−10	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · beluša winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 01:53 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Beluša a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · MŠK Senec v Beluša~~1.26 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - West this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 17~~12 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Beluša win

Published at 40%, 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MŠK Senec win	34%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Beluša win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
MŠK Senec or draw	61%	–	–
MŠK Senec clean sheet	26%	–	–
Beluša clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.2 9.3 6.8 3.2 1 8.5 12.7 8.2 3.8 2 5.8 7.6 5.1 2.4 3 2.5 3.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MŠK Senec down, Beluša across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,369 3. liga - West matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.1% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

MŠK Senec at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Beluša away: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for MŠK Senec, 1.38 for Beluša. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BEL 1–1 MSK · MSK 1–0 BEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - West this season · since 12 Sept

MŠK SENEC

LWLLLW1–2 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–0

BELUŠA

LDDDDL0–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nitra	11	+31	31
2	Dunajská Lužná	11	+6	21
3	Púchov	11	+11	19
4	Spartak Myjava	11	+6	18
5	Beluša	11	+6	17
6	Gabčíkovo	11	+2	17
7	Baník Prievidza	11	+1	16
8	Nové Zámky	11	−5	15
9	DAC II	11	+3	14
10	Trenčín II	11	+1	14
11	Komárno II	11	−9	14
12	MŠK Senec	11	−10	12
13	Častkovce	11	−7	11
14	Rača	11	−11	10
15	Veľké Ludince	11	−14	9
16	Slovan Duslo Šaľa	11	−11	6