Dunajská Lužná v Rača prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Dunajská Lužná 2–1 Rača DUNAJSKÁ LUŽNÁ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dunajská Lužná win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.240

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dunajská Lužná are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dunajská Lužná 60%, draw 24%, Rača 16%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Dunajská Lužná v RačaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dunajská Lužná win60%

Draw24%

Rača win16%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundWest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dunajská Lužná

Rača

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. liga - West

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. liga - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Dunajská Lužná	11	+6	21
14	Rača	11	−11	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dunajská lužná winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 01:53 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Dunajská Lužná a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dunajská Lužná v Rača~~1.82 – 0.81

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - West this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 10~~2 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dunajská Lužná win

Published at 58%, 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dunajská Lužná win	60%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Rača win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Dunajská Lužná or draw	84%	–	–
Dunajská Lužná clean sheet	45%	–	–
Rača clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 8.3 5.5 2.5 1 12.7 11.0 4.2 2 11.7 9.2 3.7 3 7.1 5.6 2.3 4 3.4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dunajská Lužná down, Rača across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,371 3. liga - West matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 4.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dunajská Lužná at home: 1.60 scored, 0.20 conceded a game (last 5). Rača away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Dunajská Lužná, 0.81 for Rača. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~4.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~DUN 0–3 RAC · RAC 4–2 DUN · DUN 1–4 RAC · RAC 2–1 DUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - West this season · since 12 Sept

DUNAJSKÁ LUŽNÁ

DLWWWW1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–0

RAČA

DWDDLL3–3 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–6 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nitra	11	+31	31
2	Dunajská Lužná	11	+6	21
3	Púchov	11	+11	19
4	Spartak Myjava	12	+6	19
5	Beluša	12	+6	18
6	Gabčíkovo	11	+2	17
7	Baník Prievidza	11	+1	16
8	DAC II	12	+3	15
9	Nové Zámky	11	−5	15
10	Trenčín II	11	+1	14
11	Komárno II	11	−9	14
12	MŠK Senec	12	−10	13
13	Častkovce	11	−7	11
14	Rača	11	−11	10
15	Veľké Ludince	11	−14	9
16	Slovan Duslo Šaľa	11	−11	6