Beluša v Nitra prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

Beluša 2–4 Nitra NITRA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nitra win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.475

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nitra are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Beluša 34%, draw 22%, Nitra 44%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Beluša v NitraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Beluša win34%

Draw22%

Nitra win44%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundWest · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Beluša

Nitra

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. liga - West

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nitra	10	+29	28
5	Beluša	10	+8	17

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nitra winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Nitra a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Beluša v Nitra~~1.65 – 1.93

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - West this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D5 L1 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 17 v 28~~5 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Beluša win	34%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Nitra win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Beluša or draw	56%	–	–
Beluša clean sheet	16%	–	–
Nitra clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.7 5.2 5.2 3.3 1 4.4 9.3 8.1 5.2 2.6 2 4.0 7.1 6.5 4.2 2.1 3 2.2 3.9 3.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Beluša down, Nitra across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,366 3. liga - West matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Beluša at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Nitra away: 3.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Beluša, 1.93 for Nitra. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BEL 3–0 NIT · NIT 0–2 BEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - West this season · since 6 Sept

BELUŠA

DLDDDD2–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

NITRA

WWWWWW5–0 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 4–0 · 4–2 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nitra	10	+29	28
2	Dunajská Lužná	11	+6	21
3	Púchov	10	+13	19
4	Spartak Myjava	11	+6	18
5	Beluša	10	+8	17
6	Gabčíkovo	11	+2	17
7	Baník Prievidza	11	+1	16
8	Nové Zámky	11	−5	15
9	Trenčín II	11	+1	14
10	MŠK Senec	11	−10	12
11	DAC II	10	+1	11
12	Častkovce	11	−7	11
13	Komárno II	10	−12	11
14	Rača	10	−8	10
15	Veľké Ludince	11	−14	9
16	Slovan Duslo Šaľa	11	−11	6