Baník Prievidza v Spartak Myjava prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Baník Prievidza 3–2 Spartak Myjava BANÍK PRIEVIDZA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Baník Prievidza win~~39%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.558

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.793

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Baník Prievidza just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Baník Prievidza 39%, draw 26%, Spartak Myjava 35%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Baník Prievidza v Spartak MyjavaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Baník Prievidza win39%

Draw26%

Spartak Myjava win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundWest · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Baník Prievidza

Spartak Myjava

7Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - West

Last match: 14 Oct · the Slovak Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Spartak Myjava	10	+7	18
9	Baník Prievidza	10	0	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · baník prievidza winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market28%

Us39%

~~Market~~28%

We make Baník Prievidza a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Baník Prievidza v Spartak Myjava~~1.53 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - West this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 18~~9 v 3

~~The market · Baník Prievidza win~~28% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Baník Prievidza win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Baník Prievidza win	39%	28%	+11
Draw	26%	26%	0
Spartak Myjava win	35%	45%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	57%	55%	+2
Both teams to score	59%	58%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	35%	35%	0
Baník Prievidza or draw	65%	55%	+10
Baník Prievidza clean sheet	24%	–	–
Spartak Myjava clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.2 6.9 5.4 2.6 1 7.3 11.7 7.9 3.8 2 6.0 8.4 5.9 2.9 3 3.1 4.3 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Baník Prievidza down, Spartak Myjava across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,362 3. liga - West matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Baník Prievidza at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Spartak Myjava away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Baník Prievidza, 1.44 for Spartak Myjava. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAN 1–1 SPA · SPA 2–2 BAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - West this season · since 4 Sept

BANÍK PRIEVIDZA

WWLWLD3–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

SPARTAK MYJAVA

LWDWWW1–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nitra	10	+29	28
2	Púchov	10	+13	19
3	Spartak Myjava	10	+7	18
4	Dunajská Lužná	10	+5	18
5	Beluša	10	+8	17
6	Nové Zámky	11	−5	15
7	Trenčín II	10	+2	14
8	Gabčíkovo	10	+1	14
9	Baník Prievidza	10	0	13
10	MŠK Senec	11	−10	12
11	DAC II	10	+1	11
12	Komárno II	10	−12	11
13	Rača	10	−8	10
14	Veľké Ludince	10	−13	9
15	Častkovce	10	−8	8
16	Slovan Duslo Šaľa	10	−10	6