Spartak Medzev v MSK Tesla Stropkov prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Spartak Medzev 3–1 MSK Tesla Stropkov SPARTAK MEDZEV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spartak Medzev win~~50%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.382

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.551

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spartak Medzev are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spartak Medzev 50%, draw 23%, MSK Tesla Stropkov 28%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Spartak Medzev v MSK Tesla StropkovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Spartak Medzev win50%

Draw23%

MSK Tesla Stropkov win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundEast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spartak Medzev

MSK Tesla Stropkov

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - East

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. liga - East

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Spartak Medzev	10	+6	19
9	MSK Tesla Stropkov	10	+4	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spartak medzev winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market39%

Us50%

~~Market~~39%

We make Spartak Medzev a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spartak Medzev v MSK Tesla Stropkov~~1.95 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - East this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 14~~2 v 9

~~The market · Spartak Medzev win~~39% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Spartak Medzev win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spartak Medzev win	50%	39%	+11
Draw	23%	27%	−4
MSK Tesla Stropkov win	28%	33%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	64%	56%	+8
Both teams to score	64%	60%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	85%	77%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	43%	36%	+7
Spartak Medzev or draw	72%	67%	+5
Spartak Medzev clean sheet	25%	–	–
MSK Tesla Stropkov clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.3 4.6 3.5 1 6.5 9.9 6.6 3.1 2 6.6 9.0 6.3 3.0 3 4.3 5.8 4.1 4 2.2 2.9 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spartak Medzev down, MSK Tesla Stropkov across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,182 3. liga - East matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spartak Medzev at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). MSK Tesla Stropkov away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Spartak Medzev, 1.40 for MSK Tesla Stropkov. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MSK 1–0 SPA · SPA 2–2 MSK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - East this season · since 5 Sept

SPARTAK MEDZEV

DLWLWW0–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–6 · 2–1 · 2–1

MSK TESLA STROPKOV

LLWDLW0–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lokomotíva Košice	10	+13	21
2	Spartak Medzev	10	+6	19
3	Raslavice	10	+1	19
4	Stará Ľubovňa	10	+9	18
5	Lipany	10	+11	17
6	Poprad	10	+4	16
7	Partizán Bardejov	10	+1	16
8	Spišská Nová Ves	10	+1	16
9	MSK Tesla Stropkov	10	+4	14
10	Slávia TU Košice	10	+1	13
11	Snina	10	−3	11
12	Vranov nad Topľou	10	−15	10
13	Slovan Sabinov	10	−12	6
14	Kežmarok	10	−21	1