Poprad v Partizán Bardejov prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Poprad 3–4 Partizán Bardejov POPRAD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Poprad win~~67%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.229

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.743

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Poprad are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Poprad 67%, draw 20%, Partizán Bardejov 14%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Poprad v Partizán BardejovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Poprad win67%

Draw20%

Partizán Bardejov win14%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundEast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Poprad

Partizán Bardejov

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - East

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Poprad	10	+4	16
7	Partizán Bardejov	10	+1	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · poprad winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

67% The market43%

Us67%

~~Market~~43%

We make Poprad a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 24 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Poprad v Partizán Bardejov~~2.22 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - East this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 16~~6 v 7

~~The market · Poprad win~~43% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Poprad win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Poprad win	67%	43%	+24
Draw	20%	27%	−7
Partizán Bardejov win	14%	30%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	59%	56%	+3
Both teams to score	52%	59%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	81%	77%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	37%	35%	+2
Poprad or draw	86%	70%	+16
Poprad clean sheet	42%	–	–
Partizán Bardejov clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.9%

0123450 5.4 3.7 1 9.8 9.2 3.9 2 10.9 9.3 4.1 3 8.0 6.8 3.0 4 4.6 3.8 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Poprad down, Partizán Bardejov across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,182 3. liga - East matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Poprad at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Partizán Bardejov away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.22 goals for Poprad, 0.88 for Partizán Bardejov. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PAR 0–1 POP · POP 3–0 PAR · PAR 2–1 POP · POP 0–2 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - East this season · since 5 Sept

POPRAD

WLLLWD2–0 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

PARTIZÁN BARDEJOV

WWLLWL1–0 · 4–3 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lokomotíva Košice	10	+13	21
2	Spartak Medzev	10	+6	19
3	Raslavice	10	+1	19
4	Stará Ľubovňa	10	+9	18
5	Lipany	10	+11	17
6	Poprad	10	+4	16
7	Partizán Bardejov	10	+1	16
8	Spišská Nová Ves	10	+1	16
9	MSK Tesla Stropkov	10	+4	14
10	Slávia TU Košice	10	+1	13
11	Snina	10	−3	11
12	Vranov nad Topľou	10	−15	10
13	Slovan Sabinov	10	−12	6
14	Kežmarok	10	−21	1