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Lipany v Spartak Medzev

Lipany

12:30Result not confirmed

Spartak Medzev

3. liga - East · SAT 24 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LipanyDrawSpartak Medzev

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Lipany 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lipany are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lipany 59%, draw 19%, Spartak Medzev 21%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Lipany v Spartak MedzevBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Lipany win59%

Draw19%

Spartak Medzev win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundEast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lipany

Spartak Medzev

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. liga - East

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. liga - East

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Spartak Medzev	11	+8	22
6	Lipany	11	+8	17

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lipany winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 01:53 · locked at kick-off

59% The market51%

Us59%

~~Market~~51%

We make Lipany a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lipany v Spartak Medzev~~2.42 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - East this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 22~~6 v 2

~~The market · Lipany win~~51% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lipany win The market, margin stripped

Published at 62%, 59% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lipany win	59%	51%	+8
Draw	19%	24%	−5
Spartak Medzev win	21%	25%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	73%	62%	+11
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	52%	41%	+11
Lipany or draw	79%	75%	+4
Lipany clean sheet	25%	–	–
Spartak Medzev clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.8 2.9 2.3 1 5.2 7.8 5.2 2.4 2 6.5 8.7 6.0 2.8 3 5.1 6.9 4.8 2.3 4 3.1 4.2 2.9 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Lipany down, Spartak Medzev across0–5 goals a side shown (95.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,189 3. liga - East matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.9% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lipany at home: 3.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Spartak Medzev away: 2.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.42 goals for Lipany, 1.40 for Spartak Medzev. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LIP 2–1 SPA · SPA 4–0 LIP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - East this season · since 12 Sept

LIPANY

LWDLDL0–3 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–3

SPARTAK MEDZEV

LWLWWW1–2 · 3–0 · 2–6 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lokomotíva Košice	11	+14	24
2	Spartak Medzev	11	+8	22
3	Raslavice	11	+4	22
4	Stará Ľubovňa	11	+11	21
5	Partizán Bardejov	11	+2	19
6	Lipany	11	+8	17
7	Poprad	11	+3	16
8	Spišská Nová Ves	11	0	16
9	MSK Tesla Stropkov	11	+2	14
10	Snina	11	−2	14
11	Slávia TU Košice	11	0	13
12	Vranov nad Topľou	11	−13	13
13	Slovan Sabinov	11	−14	6
14	Kežmarok	11	−23	1