Námestovo v Novohrad Lučenec prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Námestovo 3–2 Novohrad Lučenec NÁMESTOVO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Námestovo win~~74%

~~The market said~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.105

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.080

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Námestovo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Námestovo 74%, draw 16%, Novohrad Lučenec 11%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Námestovo v Novohrad LučenecBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Námestovo win74%

Draw16%

Novohrad Lučenec win11%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundCentral · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Námestovo

Novohrad Lučenec

3Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · the Slovak Cup

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - Center

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Námestovo	10	+19	25
10	Novohrad Lučenec	10	−1	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · námestovo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

74% The market77%

Us74%

~~Market~~77%

We make Námestovo a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Námestovo v Novohrad Lučenec~~2.54 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - Center this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 25 v 10~~2 v 10

~~The market · Námestovo win~~77% · ours 74%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Námestovo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 73%, 74% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Námestovo win	74%	77%	−3
Draw	16%	15%	+1
Novohrad Lučenec win	11%	8%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	65%	67%	−2
Both teams to score	51%	50%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	84%	0
Over 3.5 goals	43%	47%	−4
Námestovo or draw	89%	92%	−3
Námestovo clean sheet	44%	–	–
Novohrad Lučenec clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.0%

0123450 3.7 3.2 1 9.1 7.2 3.1 2 11.0 8.8 3.7 3 9.2 7.3 3.1 4 5.9 4.7 5 3.1 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Námestovo down, Novohrad Lučenec across0–5 goals a side shown (94.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 612 3. liga - Center matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - Center matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.1% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.89 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Námestovo at home: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Novohrad Lučenec away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.54 goals for Námestovo, 0.83 for Novohrad Lučenec. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.89

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~NOV 1–1 NAM · NAM 2–2 NOV · NOV 2–2 NAM · NAM 1–0 NOV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - Center this season · since 5 Sept

NÁMESTOVO

WWDWWW2–1 · 5–2 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 3–0

NOVOHRAD LUČENEC

DLWWLL1–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ružomberok II	10	+20	26
2	Námestovo	10	+19	25
3	Fiľakovo	10	+9	21
4	Čadca	10	+13	19
5	Fomat Martin	10	+4	18
6	Podkonice	10	+6	15
7	Baník Kalinovo	10	−4	13
8	Rimavská Sobota	10	−6	12
9	Oravské Veselé	10	−6	11
10	Novohrad Lučenec	10	−1	10
11	Banská Byst II	10	−12	8
12	Kysucké Nové Mesto	10	−13	8
13	Sokol Medzibrod	10	−15	8
14	Dolný Kubín	10	−14	5