Dolný Kubín v Podkonice prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Dolný Kubín 1–1 Podkonice PODKONICE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Podkonice win~~42%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.919

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.895

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Podkonice are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dolný Kubín 37%, draw 22%, Podkonice 42%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Dolný Kubín v PodkoniceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dolný Kubín win37%

Draw22%

Podkonice win42%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundCentral · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dolný Kubín

Podkonice

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - Center

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. liga - Center

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Podkonice	10	+6	15
14	Dolný Kubín	10	−14	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · podkonice winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market46%

Us42%

~~Market~~46%

We make Podkonice a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dolný Kubín v Podkonice~~1.67 – 1.80

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - Center this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 15~~14 v 6

~~The market · Podkonice win~~46% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Podkonice win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dolný Kubín win	37%	31%	+6
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Podkonice win	42%	46%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	67%	63%	+4
Both teams to score	67%	64%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	85%	81%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	45%	42%	+3
Dolný Kubín or draw	58%	54%	+4
Dolný Kubín clean sheet	17%	–	–
Podkonice clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.2 5.9 5.1 3.1 1 5.5 9.1 8.1 4.9 2.3 2 4.4 7.6 6.7 4.0 3 2.5 4.3 3.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dolný Kubín down, Podkonice across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 612 3. liga - Center matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - Center matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.1% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dolný Kubín at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Podkonice away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Dolný Kubín, 1.80 for Podkonice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~POD 2–2 DOL · DOL 2–4 POD · POD 1–1 DOL · DOL 2–1 POD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - Center this season · since 5 Sept

DOLNÝ KUBÍN

WDLLLD1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

PODKONICE

DWLDLD1–1 · 3–2 · 3–4 · 4–4 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ružomberok II	10	+20	26
2	Námestovo	10	+19	25
3	Fiľakovo	10	+9	21
4	Čadca	10	+13	19
5	Fomat Martin	10	+4	18
6	Podkonice	10	+6	15
7	Baník Kalinovo	10	−4	13
8	Rimavská Sobota	10	−6	12
9	Oravské Veselé	10	−6	11
10	Novohrad Lučenec	10	−1	10
11	Banská Byst II	10	−12	8
12	Kysucké Nové Mesto	10	−13	8
13	Sokol Medzibrod	10	−15	8
14	Dolný Kubín	10	−14	5