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Zlaté Moravce v Pohronie

Zlaté Moravce

1–3Full time

Pohronie

2. liga · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 18:49

Zlaté Moravce 1–3 Pohronie ZLATÉ MORAVCE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zlaté Moravce win~~54%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.940

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.922

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 57 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zlaté Moravce win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Zlaté Moravce 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
20′21′ and it is 0–0: Zlaté Moravce have scored. 0–0 · 50–27–23
27′We said Zlaté Moravce at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–16–7
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Zlaté Moravce win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Zlaté Moravce win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Zlaté Moravce win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 78–16–6
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Zlaté Moravce win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
32′Pohronie are down to ten from 27′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 78–16–6
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Zlaté Moravce win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
32′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Zlaté Moravce
32′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Pohronie
32′🟨 YELLOW · 33' M. Bukata · Zlaté Moravce
32′🟨 YELLOW · 33' F. Shudeiwa · Pohronie
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Zlaté Moravce win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Zlaté Moravce win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Zlaté Moravce win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Zlaté Moravce win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Zlaté Moravce win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Zlaté Moravce win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Zlaté Moravce win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Zlaté Moravce win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Zlaté Moravce win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Zlaté Moravce win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Zlaté Moravce win: 54% at kick-off, 79% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 45' Zlaté Moravce 1–0 Pohronie
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Zlaté Moravce win: 54% at kick-off, 79% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Zlaté Moravce
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Zlaté Moravce 1–1 Pohronie · M. Kuzma
56′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Zlaté Moravce
58′⚽ GOAL · 60' Zlaté Moravce 1–1 Pohronie
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Zlaté Moravce 1–2 Pohronie · M. Dumbuya
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Zlaté Moravce 1–3 Pohronie
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Zlaté Moravce · On: S. Kucharik · Off: L. Bortoli
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Zlaté Moravce · On: S. Sonko · Off: O. Lachowicz
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Zlaté Moravce · On: A. Ousaye · Off: D. Bugar
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Pohronie · On: J. Port · Off: M. Dumbuya
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Zlaté Moravce · On: S. Bagin · Off: M. Konopka
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Pohronie · On: P. Filippov · Off: M. Kuzma
79′🟨 YELLOW · 5' S. Jobe · Pohronie
79′🟨 YELLOW · 20' A. Lajciak · Pohronie
79′⚽ GOAL · 21' Zlaté Moravce 1–3 Pohronie · D. Kutik
79′🟨 YELLOW · 27' A. Lajciak · Pohronie
79′🟥 RED CARD · 27' A. Lajciak · Pohronie
79′🟨 YELLOW · 33' M. Bukata · Zlaté Moravce
79′🟨 YELLOW · 33' F. Shudeiwa · Pohronie
79′⚽ GOAL · 45' Zlaté Moravce 1–3 Pohronie · M. Kuzma
79′🟨 YELLOW · 46' D. Duga · Zlaté Moravce
79′🟨 YELLOW · 57' R. Buhaj · Zlaté Moravce
79′⚽ GOAL · 60' Zlaté Moravce 1–3 Pohronie · M. Dumbuya
79′⚽ GOAL · 66' Zlaté Moravce 1–3 Pohronie · J. Michlik
79′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Zlaté Moravce · On: S. Kucharik · Off: L. Bortoli
79′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Zlaté Moravce · On: S. Sonko · Off: O. Lachowicz
79′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Zlaté Moravce · On: A. Ousaye · Off: D. Bugar
79′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Pohronie · On: J. Port · Off: M. Dumbuya
79′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Zlaté Moravce · On: S. Bagin · Off: M. Konopka
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Pohronie · On: P. Filippov · Off: M. Kuzma
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Pohronie · On: S. Ivan · Off: F. Shudeiwa
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Zlaté Moravce · On: S. Mato · Off: M. Bukata
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Pohronie · On: B. Rusnak · Off: J. Michlik
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Pohronie · On: P. Hrnciar · Off: P. Kutka
FTFULL TIME Zlaté Moravce 1–3 Pohronie
FTZlaté Moravce 1–3 Pohronie · Zlaté Moravce win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 16:02 · locked at kick-off

Zlaté Moravce win54%

Draw23%

Pohronie win23%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 16:00

Line-ups

Zlaté Moravce

Pohronie

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Zlaté Moravce

Pohronie

9Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Pohronie	11	+3	19
12	Zlaté Moravce	11	+1	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Zlaté Moravce

Formation not confirmed

41 P. Vasil

3 R. Buhaj

8 O. Lachowicz

9 A. Pudil

11 D. Bugar

14 D. Duga

17 D. Kutik

21 D. Adamkovic

22 M. Konopka

28 M. Bukata

77 L. Bortoli

Coach · Peter Gazi

Substitutes

31 · M. Tresl

10 · S. Kucharik

13 · A. Radenkovic

16 · M. Lipovsky

20 · S. Sonko

25 · A. Ousaye

26 · S. Bagin

89 · M. Halo

99 · S. Mato

Pohronie

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Rodriguez

2 A. Lajciak

5 M. Mrva

3 B. Mendy

11 S. Jobe

9 P. Kutka

6 A. Petic

22 F. Shudeiwa

17 J. Michlik

14 M. Dumbuya

19 M. Kuzma

Coach · Pavol Gregora

Substitutes

20 · T. Lukosik

4 · P. Hrnciar

7 · J. Port

15 · P. Filippov

21 · S. Ivan

13 · B. Rusnak

10 · S. Subert

18 · M. Kamenicky

Our number · zlaté moravce winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 13:10 · locked at kick-off

54% The market53%

Us54%

~~Market~~53%

We make Zlaté Moravce a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · zlaté moravce win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 54% now. The market has gone from 54% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zlaté Moravce win	54%	53%	+2
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Pohronie win	23%	23%	0
Over 2.5 goals	56%	61%	−5
Both teams to score	55%	60%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	78%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	40%	−6
Zlaté Moravce or draw	77%	77%	0
Zlaté Moravce clean sheet	34%	–	–
Pohronie clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.3 6.2 3.3 1 10.1 10.6 5.9 2.2 2 8.9 9.7 5.3 3 5.4 5.9 3.2 4 2.5 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zlaté Moravce down, Pohronie across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,239 2. liga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zlaté Moravce at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Pohronie away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Zlaté Moravce, 1.10 for Pohronie. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ZLA 0–1 POH · POH 3–1 ZLA · ZLA 1–0 POH · POH 2–0 ZLA

Form · last six in 2. liga

ZLATÉ MORAVCE

LWWDLD0–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–2

POHRONIE

WWWLLW3–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Petržalka	12	+14	29
2	Šamorín	12	+10	28
3	Považská Bystrica	12	+4	23
4	Žilina II	12	+3	20
5	Inter Bratislava	12	+12	19
6	Pohronie	11	+3	19
7	Galanta	12	−1	19
8	Tatran Prešov	12	−1	18
9	Liptovský Mikuláš	12	+3	16
10	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	12	−1	16
11	Slovan Bratislava II	12	+2	15
12	Zlaté Moravce	11	+1	13
13	Malženice	12	−5	11
14	MFK Bytča	12	−18	9
15	Humenné	12	−12	8
16	Lokomotíva Zvolen	12	−14	3