Šamorín v Pohronie prediction · 2. liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Šamorín 2–1 Pohronie ŠAMORÍN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Šamorín win~~47%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.416

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.311

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Šamorín win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Šamorín 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
1′KICK-OFF Šamorín v Pohronie
14′Pohronie find the net on 14′. 0–1. 0–1 · 22–23–55
14′We said Šamorín at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–23–55
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Šamorín 0–1 Pohronie
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Šamorín win: 47% at kick-off, 22% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Pohronie win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Šamorín win 45%)
25′We said Šamorín at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 18–24–58
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Šamorín win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Pohronie
42′We said Šamorín at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
45′HALF-TIME Šamorín 0–1 Pohronie
46′SECOND HALF Šamorín 0–1 Pohronie
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Šamorín
56′We said Šamorín at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Šamorín win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Pohronie
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Šamorín
70′We said Šamorín at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Šamorín
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Pohronie
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Pohronie
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Pohronie
91′A goal for Šamorín on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 5–92–3
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Šamorín 1–1 Pohronie
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Pohronie win 95%)
93′Šamorín score on 90′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Šamorín 2–1 Pohronie
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Šamorín win: 47% at kick-off, 98% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Šamorín win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 95%)
94′We said Šamorín at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Šamorín
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Šamorín win: 47% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Šamorín 2–1 Pohronie
FTŠamorín 2–1 Pohronie · Šamorín win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Šamorín are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Šamorín 47%, draw 23%, Pohronie 29%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Šamorín v PohronieBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Šamorín win47%

Draw23%

Pohronie win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Šamorín

Pohronie

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. liga

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. liga

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Šamorín	13	+10	29
3	Pohronie	13	+5	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · šamorín winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 23 Oct 04:27 · locked at kick-off

47% The market54%

Us47%

~~Market~~54%

We make Šamorín a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Šamorín v Pohronie~~1.72 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in 2. liga this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 29 v 23~~2 v 3

~~The market · Šamorín win~~54% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Šamorín win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Šamorín win	47%	54%	−7
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Pohronie win	29%	22%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	58%	57%	+1
Both teams to score	60%	57%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	78%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	36%	37%	−1
Šamorín or draw	71%	78%	−7
Šamorín clean sheet	27%	–	–
Pohronie clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.8 6.4 4.1 1 8.5 10.8 7.0 3.1 2 7.2 9.3 6.0 2.6 3 4.1 5.3 3.5 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Šamorín down, Pohronie across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,248 2. liga matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.38 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Šamorín at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Pohronie away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Šamorín, 1.30 for Pohronie. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.38

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~POH 1–0 SAM · SAM 1–1 POH · POH 3–1 SAM · SAM 2–0 POH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. liga this season · since 11 Sept

ŠAMORÍN

WWWLDD3–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2

POHRONIE

WLLWWD2–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Petržalka	13	+14	30
2	Šamorín	13	+10	29
3	Pohronie	13	+5	23
4	Považská Bystrica	13	+3	23
5	Galanta	13	0	22
6	Žilina II	13	+3	21
7	Inter Bratislava	13	+12	20
8	Liptovský Mikuláš	13	+4	19
9	Tatran Prešov	13	−1	19
10	Slovan Bratislava II	13	+2	16
11	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	13	−2	16
12	Zlaté Moravce	13	−2	13
13	Malženice	13	−5	12
14	Humenné	13	−11	11
15	MFK Bytča	13	−19	9
16	Lokomotíva Zvolen	13	−13	6