Šamorín v Petržalka prediction · 2. liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Šamorín 1–1 Petržalka PETRŽALKA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Petržalka win~~39%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.842

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.788

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Petržalka win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Šamorín v Petržalka
2′Much as we predicted: Petržalka was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
3′Much as we predicted: Petržalka was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
15′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Šamorín
16′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Šamorín
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Petržalka
19′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Petržalka
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Petržalka
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Petržalka win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Šamorín 0–0 Petržalka
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Petržalka win 32%)
45′SECOND HALF Šamorín 0–0 Petržalka
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Petržalka · On: D. Bordac · Off: S. Sefcik
54′🟨 YELLOW · 16' A. Avetisyan · Šamorín
54′🟨 YELLOW · 17' S. Barro · Šamorín
54′🟨 YELLOW · 18' S. Alabi · Petržalka
54′🟨 YELLOW · 42' B. Ninaj · Petržalka
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Petržalka · On: D. Bordac · Off: S. Sefcik
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Petržalka
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Šamorín 1–0 Petržalka
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Šamorín 1–0 Petržalka
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Šamorín
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' O. Ihejirika · Šamorín
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Šamorín 1–1 Petržalka · P. Varga
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Šamorín 1–1 Petržalka
67′⚽ GOAL · 64' Šamorín 1–1 Petržalka
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Šamorín · On: M. Kucman · Off: M. Weber Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Šamorín · On: S. Useni · Off: S. Barro Corrected
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Šamorín
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Petržalka · On: P. Nikolaj · Off: E. Isaac
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Šamorín · On: S. Varga · Off: V. Bajtos
83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Šamorín
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Petržalka
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Šamorín
FTFULL TIME Šamorín 1–1 Petržalka
FTŠamorín 1–1 Petržalka · Petržalka win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Šamorín win36%

Draw25%

Petržalka win39%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Line-ups

Šamorín

Petržalka

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Šamorín

Petržalka

6Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Petržalka	11	+14	28
2	Šamorín	11	+10	27

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Šamorín

Formation not confirmed

38 A. Hudok

6 A. Konan

66 P. Varga

18 G. Marek

10 M. Weber

4 A. Avetisyan

16 M. Totka

23 V. Bajtos

9 O. Ihejirika

7 D. Pavuk

25 S. Barro

Coach · Michal Kuruc

Substitutes

11 · S. Bednar

29 · S. Useni

8 · L. Bubuteishvili

5 · S. Varga

27 · O. Reiter

14 · M. Ranko

88 · L. Khozrevanidze

12 · V. Kaltsas

22 · M. Kucman

Petržalka

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Mikolas

96 S. Sefcik

82 B. Ninaj

4 T. Jasso

19 N. Deligiannis

5 S. Alabi

12 C. Boah

93 L. Gasparovic

79 V. Sliacky

8 E. Isaac

27 A. Barilla

Coach · Rastislav Urgela

Substitutes

10 · P. Mazan

6 · M. Hlavaty

22 · S. Habodasz

21 · M. Kompan Breznik

7 · D. Bordac

11 · A. Goljan

99 · D. Svancara

70 · P. Nikolaj

55 · M. Hudec

Our number · petržalka winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

39% The market35%

Us39%

~~Market~~35%

We make Petržalka a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · petržalka win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Šamorín win	36%	37%	−1
Draw	25%	28%	−2
Petržalka win	39%	35%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	52%	55%	−3
Both teams to score	55%	59%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	77%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	34%	−4
Šamorín or draw	61%	65%	−4
Šamorín clean sheet	25%	–	–
Petržalka clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.3 9.3 6.3 2.9 1 8.9 11.8 8.4 3.9 2 5.8 8.1 5.6 2.6 3 2.6 3.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Šamorín down, Petržalka across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,235 2. liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Šamorín at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Petržalka away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Šamorín, 1.40 for Petržalka. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PET 3–0 SAM · SAM 1–1 PET · PET 1–2 SAM · SAM 1–2 PET

Form · last six in 2. liga

ŠAMORÍN

WWWWWL2–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–2

PETRŽALKA

WWLWWD2–0 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Petržalka	11	+14	28
2	Šamorín	11	+10	27
3	Považská Bystrica	12	+4	23
4	Žilina II	11	+4	20
5	Pohronie	11	+3	19
6	Tatran Prešov	12	−1	18
7	Inter Bratislava	11	+9	16
8	Liptovský Mikuláš	11	+5	16
9	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	12	−1	16
10	Galanta	11	−2	16
11	Zlaté Moravce	11	+1	13
12	Slovan Bratislava II	11	0	12
13	Malženice	11	−2	11
14	MFK Bytča	12	−18	9
15	Humenné	12	−12	8
16	Lokomotíva Zvolen	12	−14	3