Považská Bystrica v Liptovský Mikuláš prediction · 2. liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Považská Bystrica 2–1 Liptovský Mikuláš POVAŽSKÁ BYSTRICA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Považská Bystrica win~~44%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.479

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.483

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Považská Bystrica win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Považská Bystrica was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–23–33
1′KICK-OFF Považská Bystrica v Liptovský Mikuláš
2′Považská Bystrica score on 2′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–18–15
2′We published Považská Bystrica at 44%. Our model now makes it 67%. 1–0 · 67–18–15
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Považská Bystrica 1–0 Liptovský Mikuláš
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Považská Bystrica win: 44% at kick-off, 67% now
17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Liptovský Mikuláš
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Liptovský Mikuláš
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 69–20–12
34′Považská Bystrica find the net on 34′. 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Považská Bystrica 2–0 Liptovský Mikuláš
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Považská Bystrica win: 44% at kick-off, 89% now
35′We published Považská Bystrica at 44%. Our model now makes it 89%. 2–0 · 89–8–3
36′We published Považská Bystrica at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
45′HALF-TIME Považská Bystrica 2–0 Liptovský Mikuláš
46′SECOND HALF Považská Bystrica 2–0 Liptovský Mikuláš
56′A goal for Liptovský Mikuláš on 56′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 74–20–6
56′We published Považská Bystrica at 44%. Our model now makes it 74%. 2–1 · 74–20–6
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Považská Bystrica 2–1 Liptovský Mikuláš
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Považská Bystrica win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
59′We published Považská Bystrica at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–6
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Liptovský Mikuláš
70′We published Považská Bystrica at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Považská Bystrica win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Považská Bystrica
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Považská Bystrica win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
89′We published Považská Bystrica at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Považská Bystrica 2–1 Liptovský Mikuláš
FTPovažská Bystrica 2–1 Liptovský Mikuláš · Považská Bystrica win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Považská Bystrica are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Považská Bystrica 44%, draw 23%, Liptovský Mikuláš 33%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Považská Bystrica v Liptovský MikulášBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Považská Bystrica win44%

Draw23%

Liptovský Mikuláš win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Považská Bystrica

Liptovský Mikuláš

7Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. liga

Last match: 20 Oct · the Slovak Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Považská Bystrica	13	+3	23
8	Liptovský Mikuláš	13	+4	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · považská bystrica winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market43%

Us44%

~~Market~~43%

We make Považská Bystrica a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Považská Bystrica v Liptovský Mikuláš~~1.74 – 1.49

~~Form · last six in 2. liga this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 19~~4 v 8

~~The market · Považská Bystrica win~~43% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Považská Bystrica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Považská Bystrica win	44%	43%	+1
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Liptovský Mikuláš win	33%	31%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	62%	61%	+1
Both teams to score	63%	63%	0
Over 1.5 goals	83%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	40%	40%	0
Považská Bystrica or draw	67%	69%	−2
Považská Bystrica clean sheet	23%	–	–
Liptovský Mikuláš clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.0 6.0 4.4 2.2 1 7.0 10.2 7.6 3.8 2 6.0 8.8 6.6 3.3 3 3.5 5.1 3.8 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Považská Bystrica down, Liptovský Mikuláš across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,248 2. liga matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Považská Bystrica at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Liptovský Mikuláš away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Považská Bystrica, 1.49 for Liptovský Mikuláš. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LIP 4–2 POV · POV 2–2 LIP · POV 2–1 LIP · LIP 1–0 POV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. liga this season · since 11 Sept

POVAŽSKÁ BYSTRICA

WLWWDL2–1 · 2–4 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–2

LIPTOVSKÝ MIKULÁŠ

LDWWLW0–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Petržalka	13	+14	30
2	Šamorín	13	+10	29
3	Pohronie	13	+5	23
4	Považská Bystrica	13	+3	23
5	Galanta	13	0	22
6	Žilina II	13	+3	21
7	Inter Bratislava	13	+12	20
8	Liptovský Mikuláš	13	+4	19
9	Tatran Prešov	13	−1	19
10	Slovan Bratislava II	13	+2	16
11	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	13	−2	16
12	Zlaté Moravce	13	−2	13
13	Malženice	13	−5	12
14	Humenné	13	−11	11
15	MFK Bytča	13	−19	9
16	Lokomotíva Zvolen	13	−13	6