Pohronie v Malženice prediction · 2. liga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 18:31

Pohronie 0–0 Malženice POHRONIE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pohronie win~~51%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.919

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.890

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pohronie win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pohronie 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–25
1′KICK-OFF Pohronie v Malženice
9′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Pohronie
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Malženice
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Pohronie win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′SECOND HALF Pohronie 0–0 Malženice
48′We said Pohronie at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–38–22
48′HALF-TIME Pohronie 0–0 Malženice
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Pohronie
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pohronie win 37%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 36–43–21
58′We said Pohronie at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–45–20
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Pohronie win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
66′We said Pohronie at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–53–18
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Malženice
72′We said Pohronie at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–15
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Pohronie win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
77′We said Pohronie at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–12
81′We said Pohronie at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–9
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Pohronie win: 51% at kick-off, 10% now
85′We said Pohronie at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–6
92′We said Pohronie at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
92′0–0 at the end. Our 51% on Pohronie misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Pohronie 0–0 Malženice
FTPohronie 0–0 Malženice · Pohronie win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pohronie are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pohronie 51%, draw 23%, Malženice 26%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Pohronie v MalženiceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Pohronie win51%

Draw23%

Malženice win26%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

Line-ups

Pohronie

Malženice

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pohronie

Malženice

4Days since last match5

Last match: 12 Oct · 2. liga

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Pohronie	12	+5	22
13	Malženice	12	−5	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Pohronie

Formation not confirmed

20 T. Lukosik

5 M. Mrva

4 P. Hrnciar

3 B. Mendy

11 S. Jobe

9 P. Kutka

21 S. Ivan

6 A. Petic

17 J. Michlik

14 M. Dumbuya

19 M. Kuzma

Coach · Pavol Gregora

Substitutes

1 · P. Rodriguez

15 · P. Filippov

7 · J. Port

13 · B. Rusnak

10 · S. Subert

18 · M. Kamenicky

Malženice

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Silhavy

33 T. Husar

19 J. Krajcovic

4 N. Gorosito

3 M. Farkas

20 A. Aventisian

70 M. Henyig

13 K. Strucka

5 M. Turansky

10 A. Mojzis

27 A. Kadi

Coach · Patrik Maly

Substitutes

17 · N. Kurej

6 · T. Sarmir

16 · M. Boledovic

7 · Arthur

30 · J. Gabriel

14 · M. Drobny

9 · J. Duchovic

99 · M. Fabry

31 · M. Chudy

Our number · pohronie winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

51% The market51%

Us51%

~~Market~~51%

We make Pohronie a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pohronie v Malženice~~1.75 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in 2. liga this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 22 v 11~~4 v 13

~~The market · Pohronie win~~51% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pohronie win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pohronie win	51%	51%	0
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Malženice win	26%	25%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	56%	60%	−4
Both teams to score	56%	61%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	78%	80%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	39%	−6
Pohronie or draw	74%	75%	−1
Pohronie clean sheet	31%	–	–
Malženice clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.4 6.5 3.7 1 9.7 10.8 6.4 2.5 2 8.3 9.6 5.6 2.2 3 4.9 5.6 3.2 4 2.1 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pohronie down, Malženice across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,240 2. liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.3% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pohronie at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Malženice away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Pohronie, 1.16 for Malženice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MAL 0–0 POH · POH 0–0 MAL · POH 2–0 MAL · MAL 2–2 POH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. liga this season · since 5 Sept

POHRONIE

WWLLWW2–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 3–1

MALŽENICE

LLWLDL0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Petržalka	12	+14	29
2	Šamorín	12	+10	28
3	Považská Bystrica	12	+4	23
4	Pohronie	12	+5	22
5	Žilina II	12	+3	20
6	Inter Bratislava	12	+12	19
7	Galanta	12	−1	19
8	Tatran Prešov	12	−1	18
9	Liptovský Mikuláš	12	+3	16
10	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	12	−1	16
11	Slovan Bratislava II	12	+2	15
12	Zlaté Moravce	12	−1	13
13	Malženice	12	−5	11
14	MFK Bytča	12	−18	9
15	Humenné	12	−12	8
16	Lokomotíva Zvolen	12	−14	3