MFK Bytča v Tatran Prešov prediction · 2. liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

MFK Bytča 0–3 Tatran Prešov TATRAN PREŠOV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tatran Prešov win~~58%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.270

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.263

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tatran Prešov win at 58%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tatran Prešov 58% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 21–21–57
1′KICK-OFF MFK Bytča v Tatran Prešov
17′A goal for Tatran Prešov on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–14–79
17′We said Tatran Prešov at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 0–1 · 7–14–79
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' MFK Bytča 0–1 Tatran Prešov
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Tatran Prešov win: 58% at kick-off, 79% now
22′Tatran Prešov score on 21′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–5–93
22′We said Tatran Prešov at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 0–2 · 2–5–93
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' MFK Bytča 0–2 Tatran Prešov
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Tatran Prešov win: 58% at kick-off, 93% now
26′Tatran Prešov find the net on 26′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–98
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' MFK Bytča 0–3 Tatran Prešov
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Tatran Prešov win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
27′We said Tatran Prešov at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–3 · 0–1–98
28′Tatran Prešov ahead on 25′ through M. Regali. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
45′HALF-TIME MFK Bytča 0–3 Tatran Prešov
46′SECOND HALF MFK Bytča 0–3 Tatran Prešov
56′We said Tatran Prešov at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' MFK Bytča
77′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–3 · 0–0–100
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Tatran Prešov
90′Tatran Prešov are down to ten from 89′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–3 · 0–0–100
90′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Tatran Prešov
FTFULL TIME MFK Bytča 0–3 Tatran Prešov
FTMFK Bytča 0–3 Tatran Prešov · Tatran Prešov win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tatran Prešov are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: MFK Bytča 21%, draw 21%, Tatran Prešov 58%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on MFK Bytča v Tatran PrešovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

MFK Bytča win21%

Draw21%

Tatran Prešov win58%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 14

VenueMestsky stadion Bytca

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

MFK Bytča

Tatran Prešov

7Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. liga

Last match: 19 Oct · 2. liga

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Tatran Prešov	13	−1	19
15	MFK Bytča	13	−19	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tatran prešov winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

58% The market58%

Us58%

~~Market~~58%

We make Tatran Prešov a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.1–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · MFK Bytča v Tatran Prešov~~1.09 – 1.97

~~Form · last six in 2. liga this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 19~~15 v 9

~~The market · Tatran Prešov win~~58% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tatran Prešov win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MFK Bytča win	21%	19%	+2
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Tatran Prešov win	58%	58%	0
Over 2.5 goals	59%	57%	+2
Both teams to score	56%	55%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	36%	+1
MFK Bytča or draw	42%	42%	0
MFK Bytča clean sheet	14%	–	–
Tatran Prešov clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.8 9.4 9.1 6.0 3.1 1 5.3 9.8 9.5 6.2 3.1 2 2.9 5.4 5.2 3.4 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MFK Bytča down, Tatran Prešov across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,248 2. liga matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

MFK Bytča at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Tatran Prešov away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for MFK Bytča, 1.97 for Tatran Prešov. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. liga this season · since 13 Sept

MFK BYTČA

LWLLWL0–2 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–2

TATRAN PREŠOV

WLDWDD1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Petržalka	13	+14	30
2	Šamorín	13	+10	29
3	Pohronie	13	+5	23
4	Považská Bystrica	13	+3	23
5	Galanta	13	0	22
6	Žilina II	13	+3	21
7	Inter Bratislava	13	+12	20
8	Liptovský Mikuláš	13	+4	19
9	Tatran Prešov	13	−1	19
10	Slovan Bratislava II	13	+2	16
11	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	13	−2	16
12	Zlaté Moravce	13	−2	13
13	Malženice	13	−5	12
14	Humenné	13	−11	11
15	MFK Bytča	13	−19	9
16	Lokomotíva Zvolen	13	−13	6