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MFK Bytča v Humenné

MFK Bytča

4–1Full time

Humenné

2. liga · SAT 10 OCT · Mestsky stadion Bytca

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

MFK Bytča 4–1 Humenné HUMENNÉ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Humenné win~~41%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.682

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.728

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Humenné win at 41%.
3′Much as we predicted: Humenné was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 32–28–40
3′KICK-OFF MFK Bytča v Humenné
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' MFK Bytča 1–0 Humenné
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Humenné
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Humenné
25′10′ and it is 1–0: MFK Bytča have scored. 1–0 · 63–23–14
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Humenné win: 41% at kick-off, 14% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' MFK Bytča win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Humenné win 14%)
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' MFK Bytča 2–0 Humenné
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' MFK Bytča
43′⚽ GOAL · 10' MFK Bytča 2–0 Humenné
43′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Humenné
43′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Humenné
43′⚽ GOAL · 28' MFK Bytča 2–0 Humenné
43′🟨 YELLOW · 31' MFK Bytča
45′MFK Bytča find the net on 28′. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Humenné win: 41% at kick-off, 2% now
45′🟥 RED CARD · 47' Humenné
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' MFK Bytča
45′HALF-TIME MFK Bytča 2–0 Humenné
50′SECOND HALF MFK Bytča 2–0 Humenné
53′A red card for Humenné on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 93–6–1
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Humenné win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
65′⚽ GOAL · 63' MFK Bytča 2–1 Humenné
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' MFK Bytča
73′⚽ GOAL · 71' MFK Bytča 3–1 Humenné
77′⚽ GOAL · 75' MFK Bytča 4–1 Humenné
89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' MFK Bytča
FTFULL TIME MFK Bytča 4–1 Humenné
FTMFK Bytča 4–1 Humenné · Humenné win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

MFK Bytča win33%

Draw26%

Humenné win41%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Mestsky stadion Bytca

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

MFK Bytča

Formation not confirmed

22 T. Fuka

5 G. Danuleasa

21 R. Hecko

7 D. Hundak

13 K. Falcao

11 T. Congrady

12 I. Mohammed

8 M. Pavlik

17 M. Hrmo

19 V. Subotenko

14 P. Jakubik

Coach · Stanislav Lojdl

Substitutes

9 · C. Luna

10 · A. M. Bozenik

4 · R. Petrus

2 · J. Chrenko

20 · A. Micienka

6 · G. Gana

15 · G. Solomon

3 · A. Knapec

1 · E. Trauntenberger

Humenné

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Breda

3 P. Lazar

8 C. Vasil

21 E. Kpozo

19 I. Komjaty

16 F. Sitarcik

23 M. Sarr

40 Mateus

17 M. Zlacky

26 Z. Zahradnik

24 J. Straka

Coach · Miroslav Nemec

Substitutes

14 · S. Ninac

5 · L. Zincak

9 · M. Bega

7 · B. S. Kozak

18 · S. Kost

77 · O. Vyshnevskyi

13 · E. Karaj

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

MFK Bytča

Formation not confirmed

22 T. Fuka

5 G. Danuleasa

21 R. Hecko

7 D. Hundak

13 K. Falcao

11 T. Congrady

12 I. Mohammed

8 M. Pavlik

17 M. Hrmo

19 V. Subotenko

14 P. Jakubik

Coach · Stanislav Lojdl

Substitutes

9 · C. Luna

10 · A. M. Bozenik

4 · R. Petrus

2 · J. Chrenko

20 · A. Micienka

6 · G. Gana

15 · G. Solomon

3 · A. Knapec

1 · E. Trauntenberger

Humenné

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Breda

3 P. Lazar

8 C. Vasil

21 E. Kpozo

19 I. Komjaty

16 F. Sitarcik

23 M. Sarr

40 Mateus

17 M. Zlacky

26 Z. Zahradnik

24 J. Straka

Coach · Miroslav Nemec

Substitutes

14 · S. Ninac

5 · L. Zincak

9 · M. Bega

7 · B. S. Kozak

18 · S. Kost

77 · O. Vyshnevskyi

13 · E. Karaj

Our number · humenné winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

41% The market42%

Us41%

~~Market~~42%

We make Humenné a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · humenné win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MFK Bytča win	33%	31%	+2
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Humenné win	41%	42%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	45%	53%	−8
Both teams to score	49%	57%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	70%	75%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	24%	33%	−9
MFK Bytča or draw	59%	58%	+1
MFK Bytča clean sheet	27%	–	–
Humenné clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.5 11.4 7.3 3.3 1 10.0 12.3 8.2 3.6 2 5.7 7.3 4.7 2.1 3 2.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MFK Bytča down, Humenné across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,232 2. liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

MFK Bytča at home: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Humenné away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for MFK Bytča, 1.32 for Humenné. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 2. liga

MFK BYTČA

LLLWLL1–3 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 1–2

HUMENNÉ

LLLDDL0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Petržalka	11	+14	28
2	Šamorín	11	+10	27
3	Považská Bystrica	11	+4	22
4	Žilina II	11	+4	20
5	Pohronie	11	+3	19
6	Tatran Prešov	11	−1	17
7	Inter Bratislava	11	+9	16
8	Liptovský Mikuláš	11	+5	16
9	Galanta	11	−2	16
10	Zlaté Moravce	11	+1	13
11	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	11	−2	13
12	Slovan Bratislava II	11	0	12
13	Malženice	11	−2	11
14	Humenné	11	−9	8
15	MFK Bytča	11	−21	6
16	Lokomotíva Zvolen	11	−13	3