Malženice v Zlaté Moravce prediction · 2. liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MalženiceDrawZlaté Moravce

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Malženice 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Malženice just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Malženice 38%, draw 25%, Zlaté Moravce 36%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Malženice v Zlaté MoravceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Malženice win38%

Draw25%

Zlaté Moravce win36%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 09:30

RoundMatchday 14

VenueObecny futbalovy stadion Malzenice

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Malženice

Zlaté Moravce

9Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. liga

Last match: 21 Oct · the Slovak Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Zlaté Moravce	13	−2	13
13	Malženice	13	−5	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · malženice winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 04:08 · locked at kick-off

38% The market36%

Us38%

~~Market~~36%

We make Malženice a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Malženice v Zlaté Moravce~~1.37 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in 2. liga this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 13~~13 v 12

~~The market · Malženice win~~36% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Malženice win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Malženice win	38%	36%	+2
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Zlaté Moravce win	36%	38%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	57%	−7
Both teams to score	54%	60%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	36%	−8
Malženice or draw	64%	62%	+2
Malženice clean sheet	27%	–	–
Zlaté Moravce clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.8 9.2 5.9 2.6 1 9.5 12.0 8.0 3.5 2 6.4 8.3 5.4 2.4 3 2.9 3.8 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Malženice down, Zlaté Moravce across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,253 2. liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.8% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Malženice at home: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Zlaté Moravce away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Malženice, 1.32 for Zlaté Moravce. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MAL 1–0 ZLA · ZLA 4–3 MAL · MAL 1–5 ZLA · ZLA 1–1 MAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. liga this season · since 13 Sept

MALŽENICE

LWLDLD0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–5 · 0–0

ZLATÉ MORAVCE

WDLDLL4–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Šamorín	14	+11	32
2	Petržalka	14	+13	30
3	Považská Bystrica	14	+4	26
4	Pohronie	14	+4	23
5	Galanta	14	0	23
6	Tatran Prešov	14	+2	22
7	Žilina II	13	+3	21
8	Inter Bratislava	13	+12	20
9	Liptovský Mikuláš	14	+3	19
10	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	14	−1	19
11	Slovan Bratislava II	13	+2	16
12	Zlaté Moravce	13	−2	13
13	Malženice	13	−5	12
14	Humenné	14	−11	12
15	MFK Bytča	14	−22	9
16	Lokomotíva Zvolen	13	−13	6