Lokomotíva Zvolen v Považská Bystrica prediction · 2. liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Lokomotíva Zvolen 2–1 Považská Bystrica LOKOMOTÍVA ZVOLEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lokomotíva Zvolen win~~42%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.502

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.641

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lokomotíva Zvolen win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lokomotíva Zvolen was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–25–33
1′KICK-OFF Lokomotíva Zvolen v Považská Bystrica
25′Lokomotíva Zvolen find the net on 25′. 0–0 · 39–30–31
25′We published Lokomotíva Zvolen at 42%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–20–11
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Lokomotíva Zvolen 1–0 Považská Bystrica
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Lokomotíva Zvolen win: 42% at kick-off, 69% now
29′A goal for Považská Bystrica on 29′. 1–0 · 69–20–11
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Lokomotíva Zvolen 1–1 Považská Bystrica
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Lokomotíva Zvolen win: 42% at kick-off, 38% now
31′Považská Bystrica level it on 28′ through M. Benadik. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–32–30
40′We published Lokomotíva Zvolen at 42%. Our model now makes it 71%. 2–1 · 71–20–9
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Lokomotíva Zvolen 2–1 Považská Bystrica
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Lokomotíva Zvolen win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
41′A goal for Lokomotíva Zvolen on 40′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 71–20–8
41′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 71–20–8
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Lokomotíva Zvolen win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
45′HALF-TIME Lokomotíva Zvolen 2–1 Považská Bystrica
45′SECOND HALF Lokomotíva Zvolen 2–1 Považská Bystrica
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Lokomotíva Zvolen
55′We published Lokomotíva Zvolen at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–6
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Lokomotíva Zvolen
68′We published Lokomotíva Zvolen at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Lokomotíva Zvolen win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
76′We published Lokomotíva Zvolen at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–1
83′P. Onuoha scores for Lokomotíva Zvolen on 40′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 91–8–0
83′We published Lokomotíva Zvolen at 42%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–1 · 91–8–0
84′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 92–7–0
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Lokomotíva Zvolen win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
88′We published Lokomotíva Zvolen at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Lokomotíva Zvolen 2–1 Považská Bystrica
FTLokomotíva Zvolen 2–1 Považská Bystrica · Lokomotíva Zvolen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lokomotíva Zvolen are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lokomotíva Zvolen 42%, draw 25%, Považská Bystrica 33%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Lokomotíva Zvolen v Považská BystricaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lokomotíva Zvolen win42%

Draw25%

Považská Bystrica win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 13

Line-ups

Lokomotíva Zvolen

Považská Bystrica

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lokomotíva Zvolen

Považská Bystrica

3Days since last match3

Last match: 14 Oct · the Slovak Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Považská Bystrica	12	+4	23
16	Lokomotíva Zvolen	12	−14	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lokomotíva Zvolen

Formation not confirmed

31 S. Kocka

3 E. Gasko

7 A. Oravec

8 M. Gono

11 P. Onuoha

13 K. Qose

17 M. Koros

20 L. Dvorsky

30 M. Leitl

33 B. Petrak

38 L. Vrekic

Coach · Dusan Toth

Substitutes

21 · T. Husarcik

6 · J. Nemcok

10 · T. Kajsin

19 · L. Biely

29 · K. Izuakor

86 · D. Palfi

22 · B. Maruniak

Považská Bystrica

Formation not confirmed

21 A. Malovec

4 M. Mynar

23 D. Kucharcik

14 D. Beranek

12 S. Samaj

18 F. Liszka

7 A. Kacerik

17 R. Zemko

11 M. Benadik

22 R. Bozik

9 S. Maslej

Coach · Martin Kuciak

Substitutes

13 · P. Kotroczo

20 · M. Matejcik

16 · M. Curik

19 · A. Celko

73 · M. Bastek

8 · S. Javorcek

Our number · lokomotíva zvolen winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:56 · locked at kick-off

42% The market35%

Us42%

~~Market~~35%

We make Lokomotíva Zvolen a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lokomotíva Zvolen v Považská Bystrica~~1.52 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in 2. liga this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 23~~16 v 4

~~The market · Lokomotíva Zvolen win~~35% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lokomotíva Zvolen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lokomotíva Zvolen win	42%	35%	+7
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Považská Bystrica win	33%	38%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	54%	57%	−3
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	36%	−4
Lokomotíva Zvolen or draw	67%	62%	+5
Lokomotíva Zvolen clean sheet	27%	–	–
Považská Bystrica clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.8 7.9 5.1 2.2 1 9.1 11.5 7.6 3.4 2 6.8 8.8 5.8 2.5 3 3.5 4.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lokomotíva Zvolen down, Považská Bystrica across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,242 2. liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lokomotíva Zvolen at home: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Považská Bystrica away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Lokomotíva Zvolen, 1.31 for Považská Bystrica. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~POV 0–2 LOK · LOK 0–1 POV · LOK 0–1 POV · POV 3–1 LOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. liga this season · since 5 Sept

LOKOMOTÍVA ZVOLEN

LLLLLL1–2 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–1

POVAŽSKÁ BYSTRICA

WWLWWD2–1 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Petržalka	12	+14	29
2	Šamorín	12	+10	28
3	Pohronie	13	+5	23
4	Považská Bystrica	12	+4	23
5	Žilina II	12	+3	20
6	Inter Bratislava	12	+12	19
7	Liptovský Mikuláš	13	+4	19
8	Galanta	12	−1	19
9	Tatran Prešov	12	−1	18
10	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	13	−2	16
11	Slovan Bratislava II	12	+2	15
12	Zlaté Moravce	12	−1	13
13	Malženice	13	−5	12
14	MFK Bytča	12	−18	9
15	Humenné	12	−12	8
16	Lokomotíva Zvolen	12	−14	3