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Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom v Petržalka

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

1–0Full time

Petržalka

2. liga · SAT 24 OCT · Futbalovy stadion OFK Banik

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1–0 Petržalka PETRŽALKA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Petržalka win~~44%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.726

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.816

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Petržalka win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Petržalka was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 31–25–43
1′KICK-OFF Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom v Petržalka
15′Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 59–23–18
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1–0 Petržalka
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Petržalka win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Petržalka win 42%)
16′We said Petržalka at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 59–23–18
17′SUBSTITUTION · 14' Petržalka · On: M. Kompan Breznik · Off: N. Deligiannis
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 61–24–15
32′We said Petržalka at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Petržalka win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
45′HALF-TIME Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1–0 Petržalka
46′SECOND HALF Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1–0 Petržalka
50′We said Petržalka at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
60′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Petržalka · On: S. Sefcik · Off: C. Boah
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom · On: N. Dmitrovic · Off: M. Sevce
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
67′We said Petržalka at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–20–4
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Petržalka win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Petržalka · On: V. Sliacky · Off: A. Goljan
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Petržalka · On: E. Isaac · Off: L. Gasparovic
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Petržalka · On: D. Bordac · Off: A. Barilla
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Petržalka
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Petržalka
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom · On: N. Sagan · Off: R. Starecek
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom · On: L. Okunola · Off: M. Smatlak
90′A red card for Petržalka on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Petržalka
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Petržalka
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' M. Kompan Breznik · Petržalka
92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom · On: L. Simko · Off: A. Horvat
FTFULL TIME Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1–0 Petržalka
FTBaník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1–0 Petržalka · Petržalka win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Petržalka are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 31%, draw 25%, Petržalka 44%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom v PetržalkaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom win31%

Draw25%

Petržalka win44%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:45

RoundMatchday 14

VenueFutbalovy stadion OFK Banik

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

Petržalka

8Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. liga

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. liga

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · petržalka winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market47%

Us44%

~~Market~~47%

We make Petržalka a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom v Petržalka~~1.22 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in 2. liga this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 30~~11 v 1

~~The market · Petržalka win~~47% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Petržalka win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom win	31%	27%	+4
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Petržalka win	44%	47%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	51%	53%	−2
Both teams to score	54%	56%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	34%	−5
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom or draw	56%	53%	+3
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom clean sheet	23%	–	–
Petržalka clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.6 10.0 7.4 3.7 1 8.2 11.9 8.9 4.5 2 4.9 7.3 5.4 2.7 3 2.0 3.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom down, Petržalka across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,248 2. liga matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Petržalka away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom, 1.50 for Petržalka. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PET 2–1 BAN · BAN 1–0 PET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. liga this season · since 12 Sept

BANÍK LEHOTA P.VTÁČNIKOM

WLLLWL1–0 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 0–1

PETRŽALKA

LWWDDD0–4 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Petržalka	13	+14	30
2	Šamorín	13	+10	29
3	Pohronie	13	+5	23
4	Považská Bystrica	13	+3	23
5	Galanta	13	0	22
6	Žilina II	13	+3	21
7	Inter Bratislava	13	+12	20
8	Liptovský Mikuláš	13	+4	19
9	Tatran Prešov	13	−1	19
10	Slovan Bratislava II	13	+2	16
11	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	13	−2	16
12	Zlaté Moravce	13	−2	13
13	Malženice	13	−5	12
14	Humenné	13	−11	11
15	MFK Bytča	13	−19	9
16	Lokomotíva Zvolen	13	−13	6