Tanjong Pagar v Tampines Rovers prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

Tanjong Pagar 0–4 Tampines Rovers TAMPINES ROVERS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT0–3 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tampines Rovers win~~84%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.041

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.102

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tampines Rovers win at 84%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tampines Rovers 84% before kick-off, 85% now. 0–0 · 5–10–85
1′KICK-OFF Tanjong Pagar v Tampines Rovers
2′Little has changed for our model: Tampines Rovers 84% before kick-off, 85% now. 0–0 · 5–10–85
45′We said Tampines Rovers at 84%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 69%. 0–0 · 8–23–69
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Tampines Rovers win: 84% at kick-off, 69% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Tampines Rovers win: 84% at kick-off, 78% now
45′SECOND HALF Tanjong Pagar 0–0 Tampines Rovers
46′We said Tampines Rovers at 84%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 69%. 0–0 · 8–23–69
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Tampines Rovers win: 84% at kick-off, 69% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Tampines Rovers win: 84% at kick-off, 78% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Tampines Rovers win: 84% at kick-off, 69% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Tampines Rovers win: 84% at kick-off, 69% now
48′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Tampines Rovers
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Tampines Rovers win: 84% at kick-off, 69% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Tampines Rovers win: 84% at kick-off, 69% now
52′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Tanjong Pagar
56′🟨 YELLOW · 54' J. Gallagher · Tanjong Pagar
58′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Tanjong Pagar
62′⚽ GOAL · 63' Tanjong Pagar 0–0 Tampines Rovers
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Tanjong Pagar 0–1 Tampines Rovers
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Tanjong Pagar 0–1 Tampines Rovers · H. Higashikawa
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tanjong Pagar · On: M. Mosses · Off: S. Sazali
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tampines Rovers · On: I. Fandi · Off: Y. Kobayashi
73′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Tanjong Pagar
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Tanjong Pagar · On: N. Eunos · Off: T. Suparno
80′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Tampines Rovers
85′⚽ GOAL · 86' Tanjong Pagar 0–1 Tampines Rovers
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Tanjong Pagar 0–2 Tampines Rovers · Y. Kimura
88′⚽ GOAL · 89' Tanjong Pagar 0–2 Tampines Rovers
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Tanjong Pagar 0–3 Tampines Rovers · Y. Kimura
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Tampines Rovers · On: I. Najeeb · Off: R. Suhaimi
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Tanjong Pagar 0–3 Tampines Rovers · S. Sumi
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Tampines Rovers · On: F. Ramli · Off: K. Kazama
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Tampines Rovers · On: I. Najeeb · Off: R. Suhaimi
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Tanjong Pagar 0–3 Tampines Rovers · S. Sumi
93′⚽ GOAL · 94' Tanjong Pagar 0–3 Tampines Rovers
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Tanjong Pagar 0–4 Tampines Rovers · S. Sumi
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Tanjong Pagar · On: D. Lai · Off: L. Vujanic
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Tanjong Pagar 0–4 Tampines Rovers · F. Ramli
FTFULL TIME Tanjong Pagar 0–4 Tampines Rovers
FTTanjong Pagar 0–4 Tampines Rovers · Tampines Rovers win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 0–3 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Tanjong Pagar win6%

Draw10%

Tampines Rovers win84%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

VenueJurong East Stadium

Line-ups

Tanjong Pagar

Tampines Rovers

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Tanjong Pagar

Tampines Rovers

22Days since last match30

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Tampines Rovers	1	+2	3
4	Tanjong Pagar	2	0	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Tanjong Pagar

Formation not confirmed

82 A. Mujica

21 K. Teo

7 L. Vujanic

11 R. Fukashiro

4 J. Gallagher

18 A. Masogo

22 S. Sazali

20 M. Anieboh

10 M. Sugita

9 B. Kopitovic

13 T. Suparno

Coach · Miquel Llado Plana

Substitutes

12 · K. Syed Rusydi

72 · T. Ang

8 · Y. Aizu

5 · S. Akmal

15 · M. Mosses

39 · D. Lai

19 · S. Pillai

28 · Z. Rahman

66 · A. Ismit

17 · N. Eunos

Tampines Rovers

Formation not confirmed

24 S. Buhari

2 R. Suhaimi

33 S. Sumi

6 J. Mahler

11 S. Yokoyama

49 Y. Kobayashi

8 S. Shahiran

18 K. Yamazaki

88 K. Kazama

9 N. Furusawa

25 H. Higashikawa

Coach · Nazri Nasir

Substitutes

28 · Z. Rohaizad

52 · J. Ng

16 · D. Fox

5 · A. A. Bin Azmi

15 · Ong Yu En

17 · A. Haikal

21 · I. Hakim

26 · T. Yoshimoto

10 · F. Ramli

71 · I. Fandi

81 · Y. Kimura

23 · I. Najeeb

Our number · tampines rovers winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

84% The market74%

Us84%

~~Market~~74%

We make Tampines Rovers a 84% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–3.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tampines rovers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tanjong Pagar win	6%	10%	−4
Draw	10%	16%	−6
Tampines Rovers win	84%	74%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	77%	69%	+8
Both teams to score	52%	56%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	91%	86%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	59%	50%	+9
Tanjong Pagar or draw	16%	26%	−10
Tanjong Pagar clean sheet	4%	–	–
Tampines Rovers clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–3 at 9.6%

0123450 5.6 8.9 9.6 8.0 5.51 4.4 6.9 7.3 6.0 4.12 2.9 3.0 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tanjong Pagar down, Tampines Rovers across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 540 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

17 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 15 of 17 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tanjong Pagar at home: 0.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tampines Rovers away: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.80 goals for Tanjong Pagar, 3.35 for Tampines Rovers. Most likely score 0–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

17 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~15 of 17

~~Both scored~~9 of 17

~~Last meetings~~TAN 0–3 TAM · TAM 2–1 TAN · TAN 0–3 TAM · TAN 0–2 TAM

Form · last six in Premier League

TANJONG PAGAR

LLLWLW0–4 · 1–2 · 0–6 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 4–3

TAMPINES ROVERS

WLDWWW8–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Geylang International	3	+7	9
2	Albirex Niigata S	3	+5	6
3	Tampines Rovers	1	+2	3
4	Tanjong Pagar	2	0	3
5	Home United	1	0	1
6	Hougang United	2	−3	1
7	Balestier Khalsa	2	−3	0
8	Young Lions	2	−8	0