Home United v Young Lions prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

Home United 6–1 Young Lions HOME UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Home United win~~90%

~~The market said~~88%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.016

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.023

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Home United win at 90%.
1′KICK-OFF Home United v Young Lions
2′Much as we predicted: Home United was 90% before kick-off and our model makes it 91% now. 0–0 · 91–7–3
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Home United 0–1 Young Lions
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Home United 1–1 Young Lions
24′B. Ramselaar scores for Home United on 14′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 85–11–4
26′B. Ramselaar scores for Home United on 14′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 85–11–4
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Home United 2–1 Young Lions
45′37′ and it is 2–1: Gomes Hugo on the scoresheet for Home United. 2–1 · 95–5–1
45′HALF-TIME Home United 2–1 Young Lions
46′SECOND HALF Home United 2–1 Young Lions
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Young Lions · On: K. Whitmore · Off: H. D. Irwan
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Home United · On: I. Fandi · Off: A. Mance
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Home United · On: B. Wright · Off: L. Tan
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Young Lions
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Home United 3–1 Young Lions
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Young Lions
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Home United
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Young Lions · On: H. Nor · Off: T. Kagami
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Home United · On: K. Nakamura · Off: H. Syahin
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Home United · On: G. Kweh · Off: F. Zulkifli
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Home United 4–1 Young Lions
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Home United 5–1 Young Lions
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Young Lions · On: K. Leemans · Off: I. Mahbud Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Young Lions · On: L. Tan · Off: G. Sahoo
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Young Lions · On: A. Qaiyyim · Off: J. Chew
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Home United 6–1 Young Lions
85′⚽ GOAL · 83' Home United 6–1 Young Lions · M. Phaeton
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Home United · On: M. Asis · Off: G. Haag
86′⚽ GOAL · 83' Home United 6–1 Young Lions · M. Phaeton
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Young Lions
FTFULL TIME Home United 6–1 Young Lions
FTHome United 6–1 Young Lions · Home United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Home United win90%

Draw7%

Young Lions win3%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

VenueJalan Besar Stadium

Line-ups

Home United

Young Lions

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Home United

Young Lions

29Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Home United	1	0	1
8	Young Lions	2	−8	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Home United

Formation not confirmed

25 I. Susak

2 J. Karseladze

3 Gomes Hugo

5 L. Tan

10 B. Ramselaar

12 A. Mance

16 H. Syahin

19 F. Zulkifli

20 N. Abdullah

23 M. Phaeton

24 G. Haag

Coach · Mark Jackson

Substitutes

1 · V. Aznar

4 · T. Datkovic

8 · K. Nakamura

11 · G. Kweh

14 · H. Harun

15 · Song Ui-Young

17 · I. Fandi

18 · R. Stewart

21 · A. Rasaq

22 · M. Asis

26 · B. Wright

29 · D. Costa

Young Lions

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Mahbud

2 F. Fazli

17 I. Fandi

4 S. Yamashita

16 A. Reefqy

22 J. Chew

10 D. Sakai

21 H. D. Irwan

15 T. Kagami

23 G. Sahoo

36 H. Nishido

Coach · Firdaus Kassim

Substitutes

30 · J. Quan

5 · I. M. Mustaqim

8 · K. Whitmore

11 · H. Nor

26 · N. Iyyan

34 · L. Tan

35 · E. Srinivasa

42 · J. Ang

66 · A. Qaiyyim

45 · K. Ng

Our number · home united winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

90% The market88%

Us90%

~~Market~~88%

We make Home United a 90% chance to win. The market has them at 88%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 3.9–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · home united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 88% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Home United win	90%	88%	+2
Draw	7%	8%	−1
Young Lions win	3%	4%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	82%	77%	+4
Both teams to score	46%	43%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	93%	90%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	65%	60%	+5
Home United or draw	97%	96%	+1
Home United clean sheet	53%	–	–
Young Lions clean sheet	2%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 10.2%

0123450 1 4.5 2.9 2 8.3 5.2 3 10.2 6.4 2.3 4 9.7 6.0 2.1 5 7.6 4.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Home United down, Young Lions across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 540 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

17 previous meetings, 4.29 goals a meeting; 12 of 17 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Home United at home: 3.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Young Lions away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.86 goals for Home United, 0.66 for Young Lions. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

17 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.29

~~Over 2.5~~12 of 17

~~Both scored~~10 of 17

~~Last meetings~~HOM 2–0 YOU · YOU 0–2 HOM · HOM 5–1 YOU · HOM 3–1 YOU

Form · last six in Premier League

HOME UNITED

WWDLLD2–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 2–2

YOUNG LIONS

LLDLLL1–8 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Geylang International	3	+7	9
2	Albirex Niigata S	3	+5	6
3	Tampines Rovers	1	+2	3
4	Tanjong Pagar	2	0	3
5	Home United	1	0	1
6	Hougang United	2	−3	1
7	Balestier Khalsa	2	−3	0
8	Young Lions	2	−8	0