Home United v Tanjong Pagar prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Home UnitedDrawTanjong Pagar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Home United 89%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Home United are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Home United 89%, draw 7%, Tanjong Pagar 4%. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Home United v Tanjong PagarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Home United win89%

Draw7%

Tanjong Pagar win4%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 5

VenueJalan Besar Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Home United

Tanjong Pagar

7Days since last match9

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Singapore)

Last match: 16 Oct · Premier League (Singapore)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Home United	3	+7	7
6	Tanjong Pagar	4	−3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · home united winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

89% The market–

Us89%

We make Home United an 89% chance to win. The model expects 3.9–0.7, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Home United v Tanjong Pagar~~3.90 – 0.73

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L0 · W2 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 6~~3 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Home United win	89%	–	–
Draw	7%	–	–
Tanjong Pagar win	4%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	83%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	67%	–	–
Home United or draw	96%	–	–
Home United clean sheet	49%	–	–
Tanjong Pagar clean sheet	2%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 9.5%

0123450 1 4.0 3.2 2 7.6 5.4 2.1 3 9.5 6.7 2.6 4 9.0 6.3 2.4 5 7.0 4.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Home United down, Tanjong Pagar across0–5 goals a side shown (79.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 547 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.80 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Home United at home: 2.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Tanjong Pagar away: 0.83 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.90 goals for Home United, 0.73 for Tanjong Pagar. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.80

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TAN 0–4 HOM · HOM 7–0 TAN · TAN 0–7 HOM · TAN 0–1 HOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 12 Sept

HOME UNITED

DWW2–2 · 6–1 · 2–0

TANJONG PAGAR

LWLW0–1 · 4–3 · 0–4 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Geylang International	4	+7	10
2	Tampines Rovers	3	+9	9
3	Home United	3	+7	7
4	Balestier Khalsa	5	−1	7
5	Albirex Niigata S	4	+3	6
6	Tanjong Pagar	4	−3	6
7	Hougang United	4	−5	1
8	Young Lions	5	−17	0