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Geylang International v Albirex Niigata S

Geylang International

3–1Full time

Albirex Niigata S

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Tampines Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10

Geylang International 3–1 Albirex Niigata S ALBIREX NIIGATA S WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Albirex Niigata S win~~59%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.008

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.974

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Albirex Niigata S win at 59%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Albirex Niigata S 59% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 21–20–60
1′KICK-OFF Geylang International v Albirex Niigata S
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Geylang International 0–1 Albirex Niigata S
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Geylang International 1–1 Albirex Niigata S
21′Geylang International ahead on 8′ through D. Racic. 1–1. 1–1 · 21–23–55
41′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 1–1 · 21–30–49
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Albirex Niigata S win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
45′HALF-TIME Geylang International 1–1 Albirex Niigata S
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Albirex Niigata S · On: S. J. Yen · Off: C. van Huizen
46′SECOND HALF Geylang International 1–1 Albirex Niigata S
59′We said Albirex Niigata S at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 1–1 · 19–40–41
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Albirex Niigata S
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Albirex Niigata S · On: T. Yamaguchi · Off: M. Ando
72′⚽ GOAL · 68' Geylang International 2–1 Albirex Niigata S · S. Suhaimi (assist K. Ogawa)
72′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Albirex Niigata S
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Geylang International · On: A. Kumar · Off: S. Suhaimi
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Albirex Niigata S · On: S. Vinayagavijayan · Off: H. Kamarudin
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Albirex Niigata S · On: K. Dohi · Off: S. W. Seo
79′78′ and it is 3–1: D. Racic on the scoresheet for Geylang International. 3–1 · 97–3–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Geylang International 3–1 Albirex Niigata S · D. Racic
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Albirex Niigata S win: 59% at kick-off, 0% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Geylang International win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Albirex Niigata S win 0%)
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Albirex Niigata S · On: K. Honda · Off: Y. Kim
89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Geylang International · On: R. Taniguchi · Off: N. Yoshioka
90′We said Albirex Niigata S at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Geylang International · On: H. Kanadi · Off: D. Teh
FTFULL TIME Geylang International 3–1 Albirex Niigata S
FTGeylang International 3–1 Albirex Niigata S · Albirex Niigata S win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Geylang International win21%

Draw20%

Albirex Niigata S win59%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:30

Venue · Tampines Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Geylang International

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Cupic

8 J. Bernard Pereira

4 T. Kim

3 Jo Eun-soo

32 S. Suhaimi

7 K. Ogawa

5 N. Yoshioka

2 D. Teh

23 N. Nazari

9 D. Racic

18 H. Ryang

Coach · Noor Ali

Substitutes

13 · A. Matin

25 · D. Pereira

11 · H. Kanadi

24 · D. Aspiras

6 · A. Kumar

16 · P. Muhammad

17 · P. Rio Riafe

22 · N. Ikhsanuddin

37 · D. Serrano

19 · R. Noor

30 · M. Landreman

10 · R. Taniguchi

Albirex Niigata S

Formation not confirmed

18 H. Sunny

2 Y. Kim

5 S. W. Seo

45 J. Lee

42 H. Kamarudin

6 Y. Tsuzurabara

7 S. Satsukida

11 T. Suenaga

19 A. Azman

9 M. Ando

32 C. van Huizen

Coach · Keisuke Honda

Substitutes

25 · F. Nabil

24 · A. Aw

– · Lee Jin-Woo

20 · S. J. Yen

23 · D. Singh

8 · K. Dohi

4 · K. Honda

30 · S. Vinayagavijayan

3 · S. Ono

33 · A. Zafri

15 · S. Firdaus

10 · T. Yamaguchi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Geylang International

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Cupic

8 J. Bernard Pereira

4 T. Kim

3 Jo Eun-soo

32 S. Suhaimi

7 K. Ogawa

5 N. Yoshioka

2 D. Teh

23 N. Nazari

9 D. Racic

18 H. Ryang

Coach · Noor Ali

Substitutes

13 · A. Matin

25 · D. Pereira

11 · H. Kanadi

24 · D. Aspiras

6 · A. Kumar

16 · P. Muhammad

17 · P. Rio Riafe

22 · N. Ikhsanuddin

37 · D. Serrano

19 · R. Noor

30 · M. Landreman

10 · R. Taniguchi

Albirex Niigata S

Formation not confirmed

18 H. Sunny

2 Y. Kim

5 S. W. Seo

45 J. Lee

42 H. Kamarudin

6 Y. Tsuzurabara

7 S. Satsukida

11 T. Suenaga

19 A. Azman

9 M. Ando

32 C. van Huizen

Coach · Keisuke Honda

Substitutes

25 · F. Nabil

24 · A. Aw

– · Lee Jin-Woo

20 · S. J. Yen

23 · D. Singh

8 · K. Dohi

4 · K. Honda

30 · S. Vinayagavijayan

3 · S. Ono

33 · A. Zafri

15 · S. Firdaus

10 · T. Yamaguchi

Our number · albirex niigata s winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

59% The market55%

Us59%

~~Market~~55%

We make Albirex Niigata S a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–2.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · albirex niigata s win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Geylang International win	21%	21%	0
Draw	20%	23%	−4
Albirex Niigata S win	59%	55%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	69%	59%	+10
Both teams to score	64%	59%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	87%	81%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	48%	38%	+10
Geylang International or draw	41%	45%	−4
Geylang International clean sheet	11%	–	–
Albirex Niigata S clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.9%

0123450 3.2 6.4 7.3 5.5 3.3 1 3.6 8.2 8.9 6.8 3.9 2 2.4 5.2 5.8 4.4 2.5 3 2.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Geylang International down, Albirex Niigata S across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 539 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

17 previous meetings, 4.12 goals a meeting; 11 of 17 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Geylang International at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Albirex Niigata S away: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Geylang International, 2.30 for Albirex Niigata S. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

17 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.12

~~Over 2.5~~11 of 17

~~Both scored~~10 of 17

~~Last meetings~~GEY 1–0 ALB · ALB 2–0 GEY · GEY 0–2 ALB · GEY 1–4 ALB

Form · last six in Premier League

GEYLANG INTERNATIONAL

LLDLWW0–3 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 3–4 · 1–0 · 5–1

ALBIREX NIIGATA S

WWWWWW2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Albirex Niigata S	2	+7	6
2	Geylang International	2	+5	6
3	Tampines Rovers	1	+2	3
4	Tanjong Pagar	2	0	3
5	Home United	1	0	1
6	Hougang United	2	−3	1
7	Balestier Khalsa	2	−3	0
8	Young Lions	2	−8	0