Albirex Niigata S v Home United prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Albirex Niigata S 0–2 Home United HOME UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Home United win~~54%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.320

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.281

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Home United win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Home United 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 24–23–54
1′KICK-OFF Albirex Niigata S v Home United
27′Home United score on 27′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–15–76
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Albirex Niigata S 0–1 Home United
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Home United win: 54% at kick-off, 76% now
28′We said Home United at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 8–16–76
29′GOAL DISALLOWED · 29' Home United
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Home United win: 54% at kick-off, 48% now
33′Home United score on 32′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–16–76
33′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 8–16–76
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Albirex Niigata S 0–1 Home United
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Home United win: 54% at kick-off, 76% now
35′GOAL DISALLOWED · 35' Home United
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Home United win: 54% at kick-off, 47% now
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Albirex Niigata S
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Albirex Niigata S 0–1 Home United
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Home United win: 54% at kick-off, 77% now
40′GOAL DISALLOWED · 40' Home United
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Home United win: 54% at kick-off, 45% now
42′Home United score on 41′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 7–16–77
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Albirex Niigata S 0–1 Home United
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Home United win: 54% at kick-off, 77% now
45′HALF-TIME Albirex Niigata S 0–1 Home United
46′SECOND HALF Albirex Niigata S 0–1 Home United
59′We said Home United at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Home United · On: S. Anuar · Off: I. Fandi
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Albirex Niigata S · On: T. Yamaguchi · Off: Y. Kim Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Albirex Niigata S · On: K. Dohi · Off: T. Yamaguchi Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Albirex Niigata S · On: A. Aw · Off: S. J. Yen
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Home United win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
73′We said Home United at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Home United · On: J. Karseladze · Off: R. Stewart
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Home United · On: Song Ui-Young · Off: B. Ramselaar
78′Home United find the net on 77′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
78′We said Home United at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Albirex Niigata S 0–2 Home United
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Home United win: 54% at kick-off, 99% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Home United · On: A. Mance · Off: M. Phaeton
83′We said Home United at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Albirex Niigata S · On: S. Vinayagavijayan · Off: S. Firdaus
90′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Albirex Niigata S · On: K. Honda · Off: T. Suenaga
FTFULL TIME Albirex Niigata S 0–2 Home United
FTAlbirex Niigata S 0–2 Home United · Home United win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Home United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Albirex Niigata S 24%, draw 22%, Home United 54%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Albirex Niigata S v Home UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Albirex Niigata S win24%

Draw22%

Home United win54%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 4

VenueJurong East Stadium

Line-ups

Albirex Niigata S

Home United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Albirex Niigata S

Home United

8Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Singapore)

Last match: 15 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Albirex Niigata S	3	+5	6
5	Home United	2	+5	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Albirex Niigata S

Formation not confirmed

18 H. Sunny

2 Y. Kim

5 S. W. Seo

45 J. Lee

15 S. Firdaus

7 S. Satsukida

6 Y. Tsuzurabara

20 S. J. Yen

42 H. Kamarudin

11 T. Suenaga

8 K. Dohi

Coach · Keisuke Honda

Substitutes

25 · F. Nabil

24 · A. Aw

3 · S. Ono

23 · D. Singh

99 · T. Ho

4 · K. Honda

10 · T. Yamaguchi

9 · M. Ando

44 · H. Bakre

26 · A. Fairus

17 · H. Shahrol

30 · S. Vinayagavijayan

Home United

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Aznar

18 R. Stewart

26 B. Wright

4 T. Datkovic

29 D. Costa

24 G. Haag

14 H. Harun

23 M. Phaeton

8 K. Nakamura

10 B. Ramselaar

17 I. Fandi

Coach · Mark Jackson

Substitutes

25 · I. Susak

2 · J. Karseladze

19 · F. Zulkifli

21 · A. Rasaq

16 · H. Syahin

11 · G. Kweh

3 · Gomes Hugo

5 · L. Tan

22 · M. Asis

15 · Song Ui-Young

7 · S. Anuar

12 · A. Mance

Our number · home united winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market57%

Us54%

~~Market~~57%

We make Home United a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Albirex Niigata S v Home United~~1.29 – 2.03

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D0 L1 · W1 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 4~~3 v 5

~~The market · Home United win~~57% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Home United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Albirex Niigata S win	24%	20%	+4
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Home United win	54%	57%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	64%	65%	−1
Both teams to score	62%	63%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	84%	0
Over 3.5 goals	42%	45%	−3
Albirex Niigata S or draw	46%	43%	+3
Albirex Niigata S clean sheet	14%	–	–
Home United clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.6 7.2 7.5 5.0 2.6 1 4.4 9.8 9.1 6.2 3.2 2 3.1 5.9 5.8 4.0 2.1 3 2.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Albirex Niigata S down, Home United across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 545 Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.40 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Albirex Niigata S at home: 2.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Home United away: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Albirex Niigata S, 2.03 for Home United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.40

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HOM 0–2 ALB · ALB 3–3 HOM · HOM 3–0 ALB · ALB 0–2 HOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 12 Sept

ALBIREX NIIGATA S

WWL4–0 · 3–0 · 1–3

HOME UNITED

DW2–2 · 6–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Geylang International	4	+7	10
2	Tampines Rovers	2	+6	6
3	Albirex Niigata S	3	+5	6
4	Tanjong Pagar	4	−3	6
5	Home United	2	+5	4
6	Balestier Khalsa	4	−2	4
7	Hougang United	4	−5	1
8	Young Lions	3	−13	0