Zemun v Železničar Pančevo prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Zemun 0–3 Železničar Pančevo ŽELEZNIČAR PANČEVO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Železničar Pančevo win~~49%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.398

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.218

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Železničar Pančevo win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Železničar Pančevo was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 24–26–50
45′Železničar Pančevo ahead on 45′ through Simão Pedro. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–17–79
45′We published Železničar Pančevo at 49%. Our model now makes it 79%. 0–1 · 4–17–79
46′Železničar Pančevo ahead on 45′ through Simão Pedro. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–17–79
46′We published Železničar Pančevo at 49%. Our model now makes it 79%. 0–1 · 4–17–79
49′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 4–17–79
51′We published Železničar Pančevo at 49%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
57′Srđan Plavšić scores for Železničar Pančevo on 56′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
60′We published Železničar Pančevo at 49%. Our model now makes it 97%. 0–2 · 0–2–97
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Železničar Pančevo win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Železničar Pančevo win: 49% at kick-off, 98% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Železničar Pančevo win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Železničar Pančevo win: 49% at kick-off, 98% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Železničar Pančevo win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Železničar Pančevo win: 49% at kick-off, 98% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Železničar Pančevo win: 49% at kick-off, 98% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Železničar Pančevo win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Železničar Pančevo win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Zemun · On: Đorđe Petrović · Off: Ognjen Ilic
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Železničar Pančevo win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Železničar Pančevo win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Železničar Pančevo win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
72′Srđan Plavšić scores for Železničar Pančevo on 56′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Železničar Pančevo win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Zemun 0–2 Železničar Pančevo · David Akpan Ankeye
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Zemun 0–3 Železničar Pančevo · David Akpan Ankeye
75′73′ and it is 0–3: David Akpan Ankeye on the scoresheet for Železničar Pančevo. 0–3 · 0–0–100
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Zemun · On: Andrej Milosevic · Off: Milan Jokić
79′We published Železničar Pančevo at 49%. Our model now makes it 100%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Železničar Pančevo · On: Milos Pantovic · Off: David Akpan Ankeye
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Železničar Pančevo · On: Leonardo Agostinho Angueira De Camargo · Off: Srđan Plavšić
82′73′ and it is 0–3: David Akpan Ankeye on the scoresheet for Železničar Pančevo. 0–3 · 0–0–100
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Davorin Tošić · Železničar Pančevo
85′We published Železničar Pančevo at 49%. Our model now makes it 100%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
88′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Železničar Pančevo win: 49% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Zemun 0–3 Železničar Pančevo
FTZemun 0–3 Železničar Pančevo · Železničar Pančevo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Zemun win23%

Draw28%

Železničar Pančevo win49%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:00

VenueGradski Stadion Zemun

Line-ups

Zemun

4-2-3-1

Železničar Pančevo

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Zemun

Železničar Pančevo

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Železničar Pančevo	9	+4	14
14	Zemun	10	−13	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Zemun

4-2-3-1

1 M. Knežević

11 S. Knezevic

21 I. Ostojić

66 V. Bakić

88 A. Kadijević

8 O. Ilić

23 M. Jokić

7 Dimitrije Tabaković

19 G. Vadze

14 N. Dovedan

45 M. Šarić

Coach · Gjorgji Mojsov

Substitutes

15 · O. Stoimenovski

9 · N. Petrusic

25 · D. Parađina

29 · A. Milosevic

27 · U. Ljubomirac

31 · N. Kalat

99 · M. Dubljanić

10 · N. Belaković

20 · D. Petrovic

5 · Đ. Jovanović

16 · M. Spremo

Železničar Pančevo

4-1-4-1

1 Z. Popović

19 U. Tegeltija

6 M. Milikić

5 N. Vidojević

33 N. Đuričić

20 J. Jevremović

95 S. Plavšić

88 C. Lhernault

77 K. Šekularac

10 S. Pedro

21 D. Ankeye

Coach · R. Koković

Substitutes

7 · M. Ćurić

12 · A. Yusif

11 · N. Jovanović

17 · A. Kuljanin

66 · J. Miladinović

63 · S. Obradović

27 · M. Pantović

47 · Yassin Sbai

26 · M. Amadou Sabo

14 · D. Tosic

70 · Leo Agostinho

Our number · železničar pančevo winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

49% The market62%

Us49%

~~Market~~62%

We make Železničar Pančevo a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · železničar pančevo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zemun win	23%	15%	+8
Draw	28%	23%	+6
Železničar Pančevo win	49%	62%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	44%	53%	−8
Both teams to score	48%	49%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	75%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	24%	31%	−8
Zemun or draw	51%	38%	+14
Zemun clean sheet	23%	–	–
Železničar Pančevo clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.0 11.7 9.5 4.9 1 7.2 13.1 8.9 4.5 2 4.0 5.8 4.2 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zemun down, Železničar Pančevo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,567 Super Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Zemun at home: 0.60 scored, 1.40 conceded a game (last 5). Železničar Pančevo away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Zemun, 1.50 for Železničar Pančevo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Super Liga

ZEMUN

LLLLDD0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–2

ŽELEZNIČAR PANČEVO

LWLWLW0–1 · 5–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	11	+24	31
2	Vojvodina	10	+11	22
3	IMT Novi Beograd	11	+6	18
4	Radnicki 1923	10	+5	17
5	Mladost Lucani	10	−2	16
6	Železničar Pančevo	9	+4	14
7	Radnik Surdulica	11	−2	14
8	Novi Pazar	10	−1	13
9	Cukaricki	11	−6	12
10	OFK Beograd	10	−8	9
11	Macva	11	−11	9
12	FK Partizan	9	−2	8
13	Radnicki NIS	9	−5	8
14	Zemun	10	−13	3