Zemun v Macva prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31

Zemun 1–0 Macva ZEMUN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zemun win~~35%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.629

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.653

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zemun win at 35%.
1′KICK-OFF Zemun v Macva
2′Much as we predicted: Zemun was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–31–34
16′Macva find the net on 14′. 0–0 · 34–34–33
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Milan Spremo · Zemun
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Zemun win 34%)
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' oliver stoimenovski · Zemun
45′HALF-TIME Zemun 0–0 Macva
45′SECOND HALF Zemun 0–0 Macva
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Zemun · On: Uros Ljubomirac · Off: Đorđe Petrović
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Zemun · On: novak petrusic · Off: Marko Saric
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Đorđe Đorđić · Macva
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Zemun win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' sasa knezevic · Zemun
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Macva · On: Kristijan Tojcic · Off: Bosko Vrastanovic
60′We said Zemun at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–54–23
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Zemun · On: Godswill Vadze · Off: nemanja belakovic
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Nemanja Stevanović · Macva
67′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Mykhailo Meskhi · Zemun
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Macva · On: Vasilije Đurić · Off: Đorđe Đorđić
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Macva · On: stefan colovic · Off: mitar ergelas
68′We said Zemun at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–19
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Zemun · On: Dimitrije Tabaković · Off: Nikola Dovedan
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Zemun win: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
76′We said Zemun at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–72–14
81′80′: Dimitrije Tabaković on the scoresheet for Zemun. 0–0 · 10–81–10
81′We published Zemun at 35%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Zemun 1–0 Macva · Dimitrije Tabaković
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Zemun win: 35% at kick-off, 90% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Zemun win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 81%)
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Uros Drezgic · Macva
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Macva · On: Nikša Delibašić · Off: Danilo Knežević
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Macva · On: Bojan Matic · Off: Milan Vidakov
87′We published Zemun at 35%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Zemun win: 35% at kick-off, 95% now
89′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Kristijan Tojcic · Macva
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Zemun · On: Đorđe Jovanović · Off: nemanja kalat
FTFULL TIME Zemun 1–0 Macva
FTZemun 1–0 Macva · Zemun win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Zemun just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Zemun 35%, draw 31%, Macva 34%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Zemun v MacvaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Zemun win35%

Draw31%

Macva win34%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueGradski Stadion Zemun

Line-ups

Zemun

4-2-3-1

Macva

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zemun

Macva

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Macva	12	−11	10
14	Zemun	12	−19	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Zemun

4-2-3-1

99 M. Dubljanić

11 S. Knezevic

21 I. Ostojić

15 O. Stoimenovski

16 M. Spremo

20 D. Petrovic

32 M. Meskhi

31 N. Kalat

14 N. Dovedan

10 N. Belaković

45 M. Šarić

Coach · Gjorgji Mojsov

Substitutes

6 · Z. Bogdanovic

8 · O. Ilić

88 · A. Kadijević

1 · M. Knežević

27 · U. Ljubomirac

29 · A. Milosevic

25 · D. Parađina

9 · N. Petrusic

19 · G. Vadze

7 · Dimitrije Tabaković

5 · Đ. Jovanović

Macva

4-2-3-1

89 V. Jovanović

17 N. Lainović

26 U. Drezgić

15 S. Sladojević

44 N. Stevanović

34 Danilo Knežević

8 B. Vraštanović

10 M. Ergelaš

30 Đorđe Đorđić

27 L. Pejović

9 M. Vidakov

Coach · N. Glušica

Substitutes

22 · K. Tojčić

19 · I. Ristivojević

50 · B. Matić

21 · Vasilije Đurić

4 · V. Ilic

35 · Issa Kone

12 · K. Rakonic

5 · Darko Terzić

99 · N. Delibasic

55 · S. Čolović

33 · U. Blagojević

Our number · zemun winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

35% The market34%

Us35%

~~Market~~34%

We make Zemun a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zemun v Macva~~1.16 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 10~~14 v 12

~~The market · Zemun win~~34% · ours 35%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zemun win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zemun win	35%	34%	+1
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Macva win	34%	36%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	40%	43%	−3
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	67%	68%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−4
Zemun or draw	66%	64%	+2
Zemun clean sheet	33%	–	–
Macva clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 11.8 10.4 6.5 2.5 1 10.6 14.0 7.3 2.8 2 6.8 7.4 4.2 3 2.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zemun down, Macva across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,578 Super Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 0 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zemun at home: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Macva away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Zemun, 1.13 for Macva. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 16:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ZEM 2–0 MAC · MAC 1–1 ZEM · ZEM 1–0 MAC · MAC 0–0 ZEM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug

ZEMUN

LLDDLL0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–3

MACVA

DDLLDD1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	12	+28	34
2	Vojvodina	12	+16	28
3	IMT Novi Beograd	12	+7	21
4	Železničar Pančevo	11	+8	20
5	Radnicki 1923	11	+3	17
6	Radnik Surdulica	12	+1	17
7	Mladost Lucani	12	−6	17
8	Cukaricki	12	−3	15
9	Novi Pazar	12	−3	13
10	FK Partizan	11	−2	11
11	OFK Beograd	12	−8	11
12	Macva	12	−11	10
13	Radnicki NIS	11	−11	8
14	Zemun	12	−19	3