Železničar Pančevo v FK Partizan prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:01

Železničar Pančevo 1–0 FK Partizan ŽELEZNIČAR PANČEVO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Železničar Pančevo win~~38%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.586

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.531

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Železničar Pančevo win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Železničar Pančevo 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–35
1′KICK-OFF Železničar Pančevo v FK Partizan
13′We said Železničar Pančevo at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–19–15
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Železničar Pančevo 1–0 FK Partizan
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Železničar Pančevo win: 38% at kick-off, 65% now
15′A goal for Železničar Pančevo on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–20–15
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 67–21–12
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Železničar Pančevo win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' nikola djuricic · Železničar Pančevo
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Nemanja Trifunovic · FK Partizan
45′We said Železničar Pančevo at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
45′HALF-TIME Železničar Pančevo 1–0 FK Partizan
45′SECOND HALF Železničar Pančevo 1–0 FK Partizan
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Nikola jovanovic · Železničar Pančevo
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Železničar Pančevo · On: Yassin sbai · Off: nikola djuricic
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Milan aleksic · FK Partizan
55′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Saša Ilić · FK Partizan
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Železničar Pančevo · On: Davorin Tošić · Off: kristian sekularac
61′We said Železničar Pančevo at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Mirko Milikic · Železničar Pančevo
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Jeferson Marinho dos Santos · FK Partizan
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' David Akpan Ankeye · Železničar Pančevo
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FK Partizan · On: Zubairu Ibrahim · Off: Nemanja Trifunovic
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Železničar Pančevo win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
70′We said Železničar Pančevo at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Železničar Pančevo · On: Aleksa Kuljanin · Off: Srđan Plavšić
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Železničar Pančevo · On: Mamane Moustapha Amadou Sabo · Off: Nikola jovanovic
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Mario Jurčevič · FK Partizan
75′🟥 RED CARD · 75' FK Partizan
78′FK Partizan are down to ten from 74′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 86–13–1
78′We said Železničar Pančevo at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–13–1
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' FK Partizan · On: B. Kostić · Off: Milan aleksic
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' FK Partizan · On: stefan petrovic · Off: Nikola Cumic
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' FK Partizan · On: Erik Kojzek · Off: Jeferson Marinho dos Santos
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Železničar Pančevo · On: Milos Pantovic · Off: David Akpan Ankeye
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Železničar Pančevo win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
82′We said Železničar Pančevo at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Janko Jevremovic · Železničar Pančevo
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FK Partizan · On: Iddrisu Baba · Off: aleks zekovic
89′We said Železničar Pančevo at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Železničar Pančevo win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Yassin sbai · Železničar Pančevo
FTFULL TIME Železničar Pančevo 1–0 FK Partizan
FTŽelezničar Pančevo 1–0 FK Partizan · Železničar Pančevo win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Železničar Pančevo just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Železničar Pančevo 38%, draw 27%, FK Partizan 35%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Železničar Pančevo v FK PartizanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Železničar Pančevo win38%

Draw27%

FK Partizan win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Line-ups

Železničar Pančevo

4-1-4-1

FK Partizan

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Železničar Pančevo

FK Partizan

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Železničar Pančevo	10	+7	17
10	FK Partizan	10	−1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Železničar Pančevo

4-1-4-1

1 Z. Popović

19 U. Tegeltija

6 M. Milikić

5 N. Vidojević

33 N. Đuričić

20 J. Jevremović

95 S. Plavšić

11 N. Jovanović

77 K. Šekularac

10 S. Pedro

21 D. Ankeye

Coach · R. Koković

Substitutes

26 · M. Amadou Sabo

12 · A. Yusif

47 · Yassin Sbai

27 · M. Pantović

63 · S. Obradović

66 · J. Miladinović

88 · C. Lhernault

17 · A. Kuljanin

7 · M. Ćurić

70 · Leo Agostinho

14 · D. Tosic

FK Partizan

4-4-2

1 M. Milošević

20 Samson Nwulu

21 Sidney Lima

40 N. Simić

4 M. Jurčevič

27 N. Čumić

8 A. Zekovic

17 M. Aleksić

32 N. Trifunović

10 I. Miladinović

89 Jeh

Coach · Sasa Ilic

Substitutes

39 · Z. Ibrahim

90 · Z. Alilović

14 · I. Baba

24 · V. Đurđević

9 · E. Kojzek

99 · B. Kostić

31 · M. Krunić

44 · S. Milić

5 · M. Milovanović

23 · S. Mitrović

33 · S. Petrović

Our number · železničar pančevo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

38% The market41%

Us38%

~~Market~~41%

We make Železničar Pančevo a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Železničar Pančevo v FK Partizan~~1.47 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 23 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 11~~4 v 10

~~The market · Železničar Pančevo win~~41% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Železničar Pančevo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Železničar Pančevo win	38%	41%	−3
Draw	27%	27%	0
FK Partizan win	35%	33%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	55%	58%	−3
Both teams to score	59%	61%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	33%	38%	−5
Železničar Pančevo or draw	65%	67%	−2
Železničar Pančevo clean sheet	25%	–	–
FK Partizan clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 6.8 6.9 5.6 2.7 1 7.2 12.5 8.1 3.9 2 6.0 8.4 5.9 2.8 3 3.0 4.1 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Železničar Pančevo down, FK Partizan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,575 Super Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.6% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.57 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Železničar Pančevo at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). FK Partizan away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Železničar Pančevo, 1.42 for FK Partizan. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 17:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~FKP 2–1 ZEL · FKP 1–3 ZEL · ZEL 0–1 FKP · ZEL 0–1 FKP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 23 Aug

ŽELEZNIČAR PANČEVO

WLWLWW5–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–0

FK PARTIZAN

LWLLDW1–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 4–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	11	+24	31
2	Vojvodina	12	+16	28
3	IMT Novi Beograd	11	+6	18
4	Železničar Pančevo	10	+7	17
5	Radnicki 1923	11	+3	17
6	Radnik Surdulica	12	+1	17
7	Mladost Lucani	11	−2	17
8	Cukaricki	12	−3	15
9	Novi Pazar	11	−2	13
10	FK Partizan	10	−1	11
11	OFK Beograd	12	−8	11
12	Macva	12	−11	10
13	Radnicki NIS	11	−11	8
14	Zemun	12	−19	3