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Radnik Surdulica v Radnicki NIS

Radnik Surdulica
3–0Full time
Radnicki NIS

Super Liga · FRI 16 OCT · Stadion FK Radnik

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 18:31
Radnik Surdulica 3–0 Radnicki NIS RADNIK SURDULICA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Radnik Surdulica win42%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.499
The market’s Brier score0.496

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Radnik Surdulica win at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Radnik Surdulica 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Radnik Surdulica v Radnicki NIS
  4. 11′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Franck Kanouté · Radnicki NIS
  5. 16′Radnicki NIS are down to ten from 15′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 41–31–28
  6. 16′🟥 RED CARD · 15' Franck Kanouté · Radnicki NIS
  7. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Martin Novakovic · Radnik Surdulica
  8. 30′Radnik Surdulica have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 38–35–27
  9. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' dorde petrovic · Radnicki NIS
  10. 35′8 shots for Radnik Surdulica, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 37–37–26
  11. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Radnik Surdulica win 35%)
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Radnik Surdulica 1–0 Radnicki NIS
  13. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Radnicki NIS · On: Kwaku Bonsu Osei · Off: A. Shestyuk
  14. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Radnicki NIS · On: Marko Mijailović · Off: dorde petrovic
  15. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Radnicki NIS · On: Igor Ivanović · Off: Gboly Ariyibi
  16. 46′45′: Vukasin Bogdanovic on the scoresheet for Radnik Surdulica, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–5
  17. 46′We said Radnik Surdulica at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–19–5
  18. 46′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 76–19–5
  19. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45' Radnik Surdulica 1–0 Radnicki NIS · Vukasin Bogdanovic (penalty)
  20. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Radnik Surdulica win: 42% at kick-off, 76% now
  21. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Radnik Surdulica win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
  22. 46′SECOND HALF Radnik Surdulica 1–0 Radnicki NIS
  23. 58′56′: Aleksandar Pejović on the scoresheet for Radnik Surdulica. 1–0 · 79–17–4
  24. 59′We said Radnik Surdulica at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  25. 59′We said Radnik Surdulica at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  26. 59′⚽ GOAL · 56' Radnik Surdulica 2–0 Radnicki NIS · Aleksandar Pejović (assist Uros Lazic)
  27. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Radnik Surdulica win: 42% at kick-off, 97% now
  28. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Radnik Surdulica · On: Luka Jovanović · Off: Emmanuel Quarshie
  29. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Radnik Surdulica · On: Otabek Shukurov · Off: Aleksandar Pejović
  30. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' David Stojanovic · Radnik Surdulica
  31. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Radnicki NIS · On: Damjan Krajisnik · Off: Radomir Milosavljević
  32. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Issah Abass · Radnicki NIS
  33. 81′We said Radnik Surdulica at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  34. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Radnik Surdulica · On: Luka Žorić · Off: Vukasin Bogdanovic
  35. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Radnik Surdulica · On: Filip Zunic · Off: Tijan Sohna
  36. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Luka Jovanović · Radnik Surdulica
  37. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Radnicki NIS · On: stefan nikolic · Off: Luka Izderic
  38. 90′3–0 at the end. Our 42% on Radnik Surdulica comes in. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  39. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Radnik Surdulica 3–0 Radnicki NIS · Martin Novakovic (assist Luka Jovanović)
  40. 94′Martin Novakovic scores for Radnik Surdulica on 90′. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  41. FTFULL TIME Radnik Surdulica 3–0 Radnicki NIS
  42. FTRadnik Surdulica 3–0 Radnicki NIS · Radnik Surdulica win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Radnik Surdulica are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Radnik Surdulica 42%, draw 30%, Radnicki NIS 28%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Radnik Surdulica v Radnicki NISBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Radnik Surdulica win42%
Draw30%
Radnicki NIS win28%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion FK Radnik

Line-ups

Radnik Surdulica

4-2-3-1

Radnicki NIS

4-5-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Radnik Surdulica

Radnicki NIS

6Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Radnik Surdulica11−214
13Radnicki NIS10−88

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Radnik Surdulica

4-2-3-1

99 S. Randjelovic

22 U. Lazić

6 David Stojanović

37 S. Abubakar

2 Tijan Sohna

5 M. Popović

28 A. Pejović

47 Emmanuel Quarshie

30 M. Novaković

88 Đ. Jovanović

9 V. Bogdanović

Coach · Zoran Rendulic

Substitutes

23 · Lazar Radojicic

3 · Luka Žorić

18 · F. Žunić

7 · D. Stojanović

29 · O. Shukurov

14 · Uroš Ilić

92 · A. Kosiah

25 · Teo Lakić

49 · D. Markočević

34 · Nikša Blagojević

20 · L. Jovanovic

Radnicki NIS

4-5-1

12 I. Kostić

71 D. Petrović

5 N. Zečević

3 R. Jokić

18 S. Veličković

7 I. Abass

89 Luka Izderic

6 F. Kanouté

22 R. Milosavljević

28 G. Ariyibi

9 A. Shestyuk

Coach · M. Nedic

Substitutes

23 · I. Mustapha

70 · Stefan Nikolic

19 · K. Osei

94 · D. Stanivuković

20 · A. Vidović

15 · D. Krajišnik

42 · V. Jovanović

11 · I. Ivanović

17 · Luka Borovic

14 · M. Rošević

2 · M. Mijailović

Our number · radnik surdulica winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off
42% The market43%
Us42%
Market43%

We make Radnik Surdulica a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Radnik Surdulica v Radnicki NIS1.34 – 1.04
Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 AugW1 D3 L2 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 14 v 87 v 13
The market · Radnik Surdulica win43% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45% 11 OCT 04:0516 OCT 15:41
Our probability · Radnik Surdulica win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Radnik Surdulica win42%43%−1
Draw30%28%+2
Radnicki NIS win28%30%−2
Over 2.5 goals42%47%−5
Both teams to score48%51%−3
Over 1.5 goals69%71%−2
Over 3.5 goals22%26%−4
Radnik Surdulica or draw72%70%+2
Radnik Surdulica clean sheet36%––
Radnicki NIS clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%
0123450 10.7 8.6 5.0 1 11.3 13.8 6.6 2.3 2 8.3 8.5 4.4 3 3.7 3.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Radnik Surdulica down, Radnicki NIS across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.40
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsRadnik Surdulica 2–2 Radnicki NIS · Radnicki NIS 4–2 Radnik Surdulica · Radnicki NIS 1–0 Radnik Surdulica · Radnicki NIS 0–3 Radnik Surdulica

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug

RADNIK SURDULICA

LWDDDL1–5 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 4–4 · 0–1

RADNICKI NIS

LDLWLL0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 1–4

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1FK Crvena Zvezda11+2431
2Vojvodina11+1425
3IMT Novi Beograd11+618
4Železničar Pančevo10+717
5Radnicki 192310+517
6Mladost Lucani11−217
7Radnik Surdulica11−214
8Novi Pazar11−213
9Cukaricki11−612
10FK Partizan10−111
11OFK Beograd11−810
12Macva11−119
13Radnicki NIS10−88
14Zemun11−163

The competition's standings before kick-off.