Radnicki NIS v Novi Pazar prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31

Radnicki NIS 0–2 Novi Pazar RADNICKI NIS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Radnicki NIS win~~38%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.667

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.685

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Radnicki NIS win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Radnicki NIS 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
1′KICK-OFF Radnicki NIS v Novi Pazar
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Novi Pazar
32′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Luka Izderic · Radnicki NIS
32′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Luka Izderic · Radnicki NIS
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' stefan malentijevic · Novi Pazar
37′Kaheim Dixon scores for Novi Pazar on 36′. 0–0 · 33–38–30
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Radnicki NIS win 34%)
38′We said Radnicki NIS at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–22–67
38′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 10–22–67
38′⚽ GOAL · 36' Radnicki NIS 0–1 Novi Pazar · Kaheim Dixon
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Radnicki NIS win: 38% at kick-off, 10% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Novi Pazar win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 38%)
42′We said Radnicki NIS at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–68
45′HALF-TIME Radnicki NIS 0–1 Novi Pazar
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Radnicki NIS · On: Kwaku Bonsu Osei · Off: Igor Ivanović
45′SECOND HALF Radnicki NIS 0–1 Novi Pazar
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Ivan Davidovic · Novi Pazar
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Radnicki NIS win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Radnicki NIS · On: Ibrahim·Mustapha · Off: Gboly Ariyibi
51′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Radnicki NIS · On: Nikola·Zecevik · Off: Ranko Jokić
60′59′: Kaheim Dixon on the scoresheet for Novi Pazar, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Radnicki NIS 0–2 Novi Pazar · Kaheim Dixon
61′We said Radnicki NIS at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Radnicki NIS · On: Vukasin jovanovic · Off: stefan nikolic
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Novi Pazar · On: Vieri Kotzebue · Off: Skima Togbe
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Novi Pazar · On: Dimitrije Janković · Off: Adem Ljajić
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Ibrahim·Mustapha · Radnicki NIS
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Novi Pazar · On: Nikola skrobonja · Off: Fejsal Mulic
84′12 shots for Radnicki NIS, 7 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Kwaku Bonsu Osei · Radnicki NIS
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Vieri Kotzebue · Novi Pazar
FTFULL TIME Radnicki NIS 0–2 Novi Pazar
FTRadnicki NIS 0–2 Novi Pazar · Radnicki NIS win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Radnicki NIS just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Radnicki NIS 38%, draw 29%, Novi Pazar 34%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Radnicki NIS v Novi PazarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Radnicki NIS win38%

Draw29%

Novi Pazar win34%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueČair Stadium

Line-ups

Radnicki NIS

4-4-2

Novi Pazar

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Radnicki NIS

Novi Pazar

7Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Novi Pazar	12	−3	13
13	Radnicki NIS	11	−11	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Radnicki NIS

4-4-2

94 D. Stanivuković

18 S. Veličković

2 M. Mijailović

3 R. Jokić

20 A. Vidović

11 I. Ivanović

22 R. Milosavljević

15 D. Krajišnik

28 G. Ariyibi

89 Luka Izderic

70 Stefan Nikolic

Coach · N. Drinčić

Substitutes

42 · V. Jovanović

12 · I. Kostić

23 · I. Mustapha

19 · K. Osei

71 · D. Petrović

9 · A. Shestyuk

5 · N. Zečević

14 · M. Rošević

17 · Luka Borovic

Novi Pazar

4-2-3-1

1 Bogdan Matijašević

14 N. Stankovic

5 S. Melentijević

4 Allan De León

50 T. Dadić

8 Skima Togbe

24 I. Davidović

10 D. Sadi

22 A. Ljajić

20 K. Dixon

99 F. Mulić

Coach · N. Lalatović

Substitutes

18 · H. Kadrić

9 · V. Kotzebue

17 · M. Malekinušić

3 · V. Mirosavić

21 · M. Petrović

12 · M. Preković

11 · Nikola Skrobonja

7 · Jonny

70 · D. Janković

44 · Max Alexander Bilac

32 · Bojan Adžić

Our number · radnicki nis winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

38% The market39%

Us38%

~~Market~~39%

We make Radnicki NIS a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Radnicki NIS v Novi Pazar~~1.32 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 13~~13 v 9

~~The market · Radnicki NIS win~~39% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Radnicki NIS win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Radnicki NIS win	38%	39%	−1
Draw	29%	29%	0
Novi Pazar win	34%	33%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	50%	−3
Both teams to score	52%	55%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	73%	0
Over 3.5 goals	25%	30%	−5
Radnicki NIS or draw	66%	67%	−1
Radnicki NIS clean sheet	30%	–	–
Novi Pazar clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 9.2 8.6 5.9 2.5 1 9.3 13.6 7.6 3.2 2 6.8 8.2 5.0 2.1 3 3.0 3.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Radnicki NIS down, Novi Pazar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,578 Super Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Radnicki NIS at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Novi Pazar away: 0.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Radnicki NIS, 1.23 for Novi Pazar. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 16:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NOV 1–0 RAD · RAD 2–3 NOV · NOV 3–3 RAD · RAD 2–1 NOV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug

RADNICKI NIS

DLWLLL1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 0–3

NOVI PAZAR

DWDDLL1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	12	+28	34
2	Vojvodina	12	+16	28
3	IMT Novi Beograd	12	+7	21
4	Železničar Pančevo	11	+8	20
5	Radnicki 1923	11	+3	17
6	Radnik Surdulica	12	+1	17
7	Mladost Lucani	12	−6	17
8	Cukaricki	12	−3	15
9	Novi Pazar	12	−3	13
10	FK Partizan	11	−2	11
11	OFK Beograd	12	−8	11
12	Macva	12	−11	10
13	Radnicki NIS	11	−11	8
14	Zemun	12	−19	3