Radnicki 1923 v Radnik Surdulica prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31

Radnicki 1923 1–0 Radnik Surdulica RADNICKI 1923 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Radnicki 1923 win~~48%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.402

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.370

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Radnicki 1923 win at 48%.
0′KICK-OFF Radnicki 1923 v Radnik Surdulica
1′Much as we predicted: Radnicki 1923 was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–24
27′We published Radnicki 1923 at 48%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Radnicki 1923 1–0 Radnik Surdulica
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Radnicki 1923 win: 48% at kick-off, 77% now
28′Radnicki 1923 ahead on 27′ through Uros·Sremcevic. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–6
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Radnicki 1923 win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Mohamed Cisse · Radnicki 1923
45′HALF-TIME Radnicki 1923 1–0 Radnik Surdulica
46′SECOND HALF Radnicki 1923 1–0 Radnik Surdulica
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Radnik Surdulica · On: Aleksandar Pejović · Off: Darko Stojanović
51′We published Radnicki 1923 at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Uros Lazic · Radnik Surdulica
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Radnicki 1923 · On: Mićo Kuzmanović · Off: Bojica Nikčević
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Radnicki 1923 · On: Jovan Ilic · Off: David Buchta
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Radnik Surdulica · On: Djordje Jovanovic · Off: Milos Spasic
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Radnik Surdulica · On: Tijan Sohna · Off: Filip Zunic
68′We published Radnicki 1923 at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
69′We published Radnicki 1923 at 48%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
69′Uros·Sremcevic scores for Radnicki 1923 on 69′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Radnicki 1923 2–0 Radnik Surdulica
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Radnicki 1923 win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
71′GOAL DISALLOWED · 71' Radnicki 1923
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Radnicki 1923 win: 48% at kick-off, 86% now
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Mićo Kuzmanović · Radnicki 1923
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Radnik Surdulica · On: Luka Jovanović · Off: Emmanuel Quarshie
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Radnik Surdulica · On: Ayouba Kosiah · Off: Otabek Shukurov
78′We published Radnicki 1923 at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Aleksandar Pejović · Radnik Surdulica
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Radnicki 1923 · On: Asmir Suljić · Off: Nemanja Glavčić
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Radnicki 1923 · On: Semir Alic · Off: Jovan Živković
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Radnicki 1923 · On: Mohamed Mezghrani · Off: Mohamed Cisse
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Ayouba Kosiah · Radnik Surdulica
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Radnicki 1923 win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Ilija·Babic · Radnicki 1923
FTFULL TIME Radnicki 1923 1–0 Radnik Surdulica
FTRadnicki 1923 1–0 Radnik Surdulica · Radnicki 1923 win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Radnicki 1923 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Radnicki 1923 48%, draw 28%, Radnik Surdulica 24%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Radnicki 1923 v Radnik SurdulicaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Radnicki 1923 win48%

Draw28%

Radnik Surdulica win24%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueČika Dača Stadium

Line-ups

Radnicki 1923

4-1-4-1

Radnik Surdulica

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Radnicki 1923

Radnik Surdulica

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

Last match: 16 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Radnicki 1923	11	+3	17
6	Radnik Surdulica	12	+1	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Radnicki 1923

4-1-4-1

1 M. Šahinović

7 B. Nikčević

5 Nikola Marjanović

14 S. Simović

11 I. Babić

27 M. Ristić

10 M. Cissé

35 N. Glavčić

19 D. Buchta

70 J. Živković

9 U. Sremčević

Coach · Fedja Dudic

Substitutes

28 · S. Alić

80 · J. Ilić

8 · M. Kuzmanović

81 · L. Lijeskić

2 · M. Mezghrani

4 · N. Miličić

99 · A. Suljić

29 · António Pina Gomes

25 · T. Ude

16 · Vanja Tomić

40 · S. Borovina

Radnik Surdulica

4-2-3-1

99 S. Randjelovic

18 F. Žunić

37 S. Abubakar

5 M. Popović

22 U. Lazić

3 Luka Žorić

29 O. Shukurov

47 Emmanuel Quarshie

7 D. Stojanović

27 M. Spasić

9 V. Bogdanović

Coach · Zoran Rendulic

Substitutes

21 · U. Filipovic

14 · Uroš Ilić

88 · Đ. Jovanović

92 · A. Kosiah

25 · Teo Lakić

49 · D. Markočević

28 · A. Pejović

23 · Lazar Radojicic

34 · Nikša Blagojević

20 · L. Jovanovic

2 · Tijan Sohna

Our number · radnicki 1923 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market50%

Us48%

~~Market~~50%

We make Radnicki 1923 a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Radnicki 1923 v Radnik Surdulica~~1.52 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 17~~5 v 6

~~The market · Radnicki 1923 win~~50% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Radnicki 1923 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Radnicki 1923 win	48%	50%	−2
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Radnik Surdulica win	24%	23%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	46%	51%	−5
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	32%	−8
Radnicki 1923 or draw	76%	77%	−1
Radnicki 1923 clean sheet	38%	–	–
Radnik Surdulica clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.5 7.1 4.0 1 11.3 13.1 6.0 2.0 2 9.3 9.1 4.5 3 4.7 4.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Radnicki 1923 down, Radnik Surdulica across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,578 Super Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.30 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Radnicki 1923 at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Radnik Surdulica away: 0.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Radnicki 1923, 0.99 for Radnik Surdulica. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 16:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.30

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~Radnicki 1923 0–0 Radnik Surdulica · Radnik Surdulica 2–3 Radnicki 1923 · Radnik Surdulica 0–1 Radnicki 1923 · Radnicki 1923 1–0 Radnik Surdulica

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug

RADNICKI 1923

DDWWLL1–1 · 0–0 · 5–0 · 5–3 · 0–3 · 0–2

RADNIK SURDULICA

WDDDLW3–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 4–4 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	12	+28	34
2	Vojvodina	12	+16	28
3	IMT Novi Beograd	12	+7	21
4	Železničar Pančevo	11	+8	20
5	Radnicki 1923	11	+3	17
6	Radnik Surdulica	12	+1	17
7	Mladost Lucani	12	−6	17
8	Cukaricki	12	−3	15
9	Novi Pazar	12	−3	13
10	FK Partizan	11	−2	11
11	OFK Beograd	12	−8	11
12	Macva	12	−11	10
13	Radnicki NIS	11	−11	8
14	Zemun	12	−19	3