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Radnicki 1923 v FK Crvena Zvezda

Radnicki 1923

0–3Full time

FK Crvena Zvezda

Super Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Čika Dača Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:31

Radnicki 1923 0–3 FK Crvena Zvezda FK CRVENA ZVEZDA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FK Crvena Zvezda win~~61%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.231

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.199

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FK Crvena Zvezda win at 61%.
1′Much as we predicted: FK Crvena Zvezda was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 18–21–62
1′KICK-OFF Radnicki 1923 v FK Crvena Zvezda
2′Much as we predicted: FK Crvena Zvezda was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 18–21–62
5′⚽ GOAL · 6' Radnicki 1923 0–0 FK Crvena Zvezda
6′A goal for Radnicki 1923 on 6′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 18–21–61
8′A goal for Radnicki 1923 on 6′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 18–22–60
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Miloš Ristić · Radnicki 1923
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Mihailo Ristić · FK Crvena Zvezda
45′SECOND HALF Radnicki 1923 0–0 FK Crvena Zvezda
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Mihailo Ristić · FK Crvena Zvezda
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' Radnicki 1923 0–0 FK Crvena Zvezda · Osman Bukari
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Radnicki 1923 0–1 FK Crvena Zvezda · Bamba Dieng
57′⚽ GOAL · 58' Radnicki 1923 0–1 FK Crvena Zvezda · stefan gudelj
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Radnicki 1923 0–2 FK Crvena Zvezda · stefan gudelj
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Radnicki 1923 · On: V. Tomić · Off: hassan hilo
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Radnicki 1923 · On: Semir Alic · Off: Jovan Živković
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Radnicki 1923 · On: Semir Alic · Off: Jovan Živković
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FK Crvena Zvezda · On: Franklin Tebo Uchenna · Off: Derrick Luckassen
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FK Crvena Zvezda · On: Marko Arnautović · Off: Bamba Dieng
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FK Crvena Zvezda · On: Rade Krunić · Off: Vasilije Kostov Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FK Crvena Zvezda · On: Kristiyan Balov · Off: Matej Gashtarov
81′🟨 YELLOW · 82' stefan gudelj · FK Crvena Zvezda
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Radnicki 1923 · On: Asmir Suljić · Off: Mićo Kuzmanović Corrected
87′⚽ GOAL · 88' Radnicki 1923 0–2 FK Crvena Zvezda · Marko Arnautović
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Radnicki 1923 0–3 FK Crvena Zvezda · Marko Arnautović
FTFULL TIME Radnicki 1923 0–3 FK Crvena Zvezda
FTRadnicki 1923 0–3 FK Crvena Zvezda · FK Crvena Zvezda win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Radnicki 1923 win17%

Draw22%

FK Crvena Zvezda win61%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Čika Dača Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Radnicki 1923

4-1-4-1

81 L. Lijeskić

7 B. Nikčević

5 Nikola Marjanović

6 H. Hilo

8 M. Kuzmanović

27 M. Ristić

70 J. Živković

35 N. Glavčić

19 D. Buchta

10 M. Cissé

77 Issa Bah

Coach · Fedja Dudic

Substitutes

28 · S. Alić

29 · António Pina Gomes

80 · J. Ilić

2 · M. Mezghrani

4 · N. Miličić

1 · M. Šahinović

99 · A. Suljić

25 · T. Ude

16 · Vanja Tomić

41 · Aleksa Jelic

40 · S. Borovina

FK Crvena Zvezda

3-4-3

1 Matheus

3 Y. Nakayama

45 S. Gudelj

32 D. Luckassen

20 Tomás Händel

21 T. Elšnik

60 M. Gashtarov

23 M. Ristić

70 M. Cham

9 B. Dieng

22 V. Kostov

Coach · Riera

Substitutes

7 · M. Arnautović

30 · F. Tebo Uchenna

27 · M. Strika

37 · V. Lučić

33 · R. Krunić

14 · O. Bukari

8 · K. Balov

55 · D. Saric

50 · S. Radanović

6 · M. Bajo

66 · Andrej Sibinovic

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Radnicki 1923

4-1-4-1

81 L. Lijeskić

7 B. Nikčević

5 Nikola Marjanović

6 H. Hilo

8 M. Kuzmanović

27 M. Ristić

70 J. Živković

35 N. Glavčić

19 D. Buchta

10 M. Cissé

77 Issa Bah

Coach · Fedja Dudic

Substitutes

28 · S. Alić

29 · António Pina Gomes

80 · J. Ilić

2 · M. Mezghrani

4 · N. Miličić

1 · M. Šahinović

99 · A. Suljić

25 · T. Ude

16 · Vanja Tomić

41 · Aleksa Jelic

40 · S. Borovina

FK Crvena Zvezda

3-4-3

1 Matheus

3 Y. Nakayama

45 S. Gudelj

32 D. Luckassen

20 Tomás Händel

21 T. Elšnik

60 M. Gashtarov

23 M. Ristić

70 M. Cham

9 B. Dieng

22 V. Kostov

Coach · Riera

Substitutes

7 · M. Arnautović

30 · F. Tebo Uchenna

27 · M. Strika

37 · V. Lučić

33 · R. Krunić

14 · O. Bukari

8 · K. Balov

55 · D. Saric

50 · S. Radanović

6 · M. Bajo

66 · Andrej Sibinovic

Our number · fk crvena zvezda winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

61% The market64%

Us61%

~~Market~~64%

We make FK Crvena Zvezda a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–2.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fk crvena zvezda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 63% to 64% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Radnicki 1923 win	17%	15%	+2
Draw	22%	21%	+1
FK Crvena Zvezda win	61%	64%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	60%	59%	+1
Both teams to score	56%	54%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	38%	39%	−1
Radnicki 1923 or draw	39%	36%	+3
Radnicki 1923 clean sheet	13%	–	–
FK Crvena Zvezda clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 5.5 8.6 9.7 6.8 3.6 1 3.7 10.3 9.7 6.7 3.6 2 2.4 4.8 4.9 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Radnicki 1923 down, FK Crvena Zvezda across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,564 Super Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 3.62 goals a meeting; 8 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Radnicki 1923 at home: 3.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). FK Crvena Zvezda away: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Radnicki 1923, 2.09 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.62

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 13

~~Both scored~~6 of 13

~~Last meetings~~RAD 0–2 FKC · FKC 2–1 RAD · RAD 4–1 FKC · FKC 6–0 RAD

Form · last six in Super Liga

RADNICKI 1923

WWDDWW1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 5–0 · 5–3

FK CRVENA ZVEZDA

WWDWWW2–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	10	+21	28
2	Vojvodina	10	+11	22
3	Radnicki 1923	9	+8	17
4	Mladost Lucani	10	−2	16
5	IMT Novi Beograd	10	+5	15
6	Železničar Pančevo	9	+4	14
7	Radnik Surdulica	10	−1	14
8	Novi Pazar	10	−1	13
9	Cukaricki	10	−6	11
10	OFK Beograd	10	−8	9
11	FK Partizan	9	−2	8
12	Radnicki NIS	9	−5	8
13	Macva	10	−11	8
14	Zemun	10	−13	3