OFK Beograd v FK Crvena Zvezda prediction · Super Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

OFK BeogradDrawFK Crvena Zvezda

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FK Crvena Zvezda 68%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FK Crvena Zvezda are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: OFK Beograd 13%, draw 19%, FK Crvena Zvezda 68%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on OFK Beograd v FK Crvena ZvezdaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 15:33 · locked at kick-off

OFK Beograd win13%

Draw19%

FK Crvena Zvezda win68%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueOmladinski stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

OFK Beograd

FK Crvena Zvezda

8Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fk crvena zvezda winFirst published 23 Oct 15:33 · locked at kick-off

68% The market72%

Us68%

~~Market~~72%

We make FK Crvena Zvezda a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · OFK Beograd v FK Crvena Zvezda~~0.95 – 2.38

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 31 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 34~~11 v 1

~~The market · FK Crvena Zvezda win~~72% · ours 68%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
OFK Beograd win	13%	11%	+2
Draw	19%	17%	+2
FK Crvena Zvezda win	68%	72%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	64%	68%	−4
Both teams to score	56%	56%	0
Over 1.5 goals	85%	85%	0
Over 3.5 goals	43%	49%	−6
OFK Beograd or draw	32%	28%	+4
OFK Beograd clean sheet	10%	–	–
FK Crvena Zvezda clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.1%

0123450 4.4 7.9 10.1 8.0 4.8 2.41 2.8 8.7 9.4 7.4 4.4 2.22 3.9 4.5 3.5 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+OFK Beograd down, FK Crvena Zvezda across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,584 Super Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.43 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

OFK Beograd at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). FK Crvena Zvezda away: 1.33 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for OFK Beograd, 2.38 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.43

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~6 of 7

~~Last meetings~~FKC 1–2 OFK · OFK 3–4 FKC · FKC 7–1 OFK · FKC 5–2 OFK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 31 Aug

OFK BEOGRAD

LDLLDD1–3 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–5 · 0–0 · 1–1

FK CRVENA ZVEZDA

DWWWWW0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	12	+28	34
2	Vojvodina	13	+16	29
3	Železničar Pančevo	12	+9	23
4	IMT Novi Beograd	13	+6	21
5	Radnicki 1923	12	+4	20
6	Cukaricki	13	−1	18
7	Mladost Lucani	13	−6	18
8	Radnik Surdulica	13	0	17
9	Novi Pazar	13	−1	16
10	FK Partizan	12	−4	11
11	OFK Beograd	12	−8	11
12	Macva	13	−12	10
13	Radnicki NIS	12	−13	8
14	Zemun	13	−18	6