Novi Pazar v IMT Novi Beograd prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Novi Pazar 1–2 IMT Novi Beograd NOVI PAZAR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Novi Pazar win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.745

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.673

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Novi Pazar win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Novi Pazar was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
1′KICK-OFF Novi Pazar v IMT Novi Beograd
9′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Jovan Marinkovic · Novi Pazar
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Papa Amady Gadio · Novi Pazar
27′🟥 RED CARD · 27' Novi Pazar
28′A red card for Novi Pazar on 27′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 36–36–28
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' vasilije novicic · IMT Novi Beograd
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Novi Pazar win 34%)
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Vladimir Radocaj · IMT Novi Beograd
47′HALF-TIME Novi Pazar 0–0 IMT Novi Beograd
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' nikola glisic · IMT Novi Beograd
48′We published Novi Pazar at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
48′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 75–19–6
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Novi Pazar 1–0 IMT Novi Beograd
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Novi Pazar win: 40% at kick-off, 75% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Novi Pazar win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 19%)
49′Kaheim Dixon scores for Novi Pazar on 48′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–5
57′SECOND HALF Novi Pazar 0–0 IMT Novi Beograd
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Novi Pazar win: 40% at kick-off, 28% now
59′We said Novi Pazar at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–52–21
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Novi Pazar 1–1 IMT Novi Beograd
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Novi Pazar win: 40% at kick-off, 27% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Novi Pazar win 27%)
61′60′: Charly Keita on the scoresheet for IMT Novi Beograd, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 26–54–21
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' IMT Novi Beograd · On: François Kamano · Off: Ibrahima Kebe
64′We said Novi Pazar at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–19
66′We said Novi Pazar at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–19–77
66′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–19–77
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Novi Pazar 1–2 IMT Novi Beograd
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Novi Pazar win: 40% at kick-off, 4% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' IMT Novi Beograd win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
68′IMT Novi Beograd ahead on 67′ through François Kamano. 1–2. 1–2 · 3–18–78
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Novi Pazar · On: Johnson Agwom Dauda · Off: bojan adzic Corrected
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Adem Ljajić · Novi Pazar
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Moussa Sissako · IMT Novi Beograd
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Novi Pazar · On: Johnson Agwom Dauda · Off: Fejsal Mulic
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Novi Pazar win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Novi Pazar · On: Haris Kadric · Off: Ivan Davidovic
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' IMT Novi Beograd · On: Djordje Radivojevic · Off: Tadija Cojic
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' IMT Novi Beograd · On: V. Kiankaulua · Off: nikola glisic
FTFULL TIME Novi Pazar 1–2 IMT Novi Beograd
FTNovi Pazar 1–2 IMT Novi Beograd · Novi Pazar win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Novi Pazar are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Novi Pazar 40%, draw 30%, IMT Novi Beograd 30%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Novi Pazar v IMT Novi BeogradBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Novi Pazar win40%

Draw30%

IMT Novi Beograd win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueNovi Pazar City Stadium

Line-ups

Novi Pazar

4-2-3-1

IMT Novi Beograd

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Novi Pazar

IMT Novi Beograd

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

Last match: 10 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	IMT Novi Beograd	11	+6	18
9	Novi Pazar	11	−2	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Novi Pazar

4-2-3-1

1 Bogdan Matijašević

32 Bojan Adžić

4 Allan De León

23 J. Marinković

50 T. Dadić

6 P. Gadio

24 I. Davidović

10 D. Sadi

22 A. Ljajić

20 K. Dixon

99 F. Mulić

Coach · N. Lalatović

Substitutes

11 · Nikola Skrobonja

12 · M. Preković

21 · M. Petrović

3 · V. Mirosavić

5 · S. Melentijević

17 · M. Malekinušić

9 · V. Kotzebue

18 · H. Kadrić

26 · D. Johnson Agwom

8 · Skima Togbe

14 · N. Stankovic

IMT Novi Beograd

4-2-3-1

1 O. Čančarević

2 Julián Delmás

5 M. Sissako

3 Iván Martos

45 Ismael Casas

14 I. Kebe

22 Vasilije Novicic

27 V. Radočaj

19 T. Cojic

7 N. Glišić

99 C. Keita

Coach · Z. Popović

Substitutes

65 · S. Šapić

12 · Kadir Gicic

40 · F. Kamano

94 · V. Kiankaulua

66 · David Urošević

20 · D. Radivojevic

6 · Naum Perovic

28 · A. Milanovic

23 · D. Akrofi

37 · Daniel Aghahowa

Our number · novi pazar winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make Novi Pazar a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Novi Pazar v IMT Novi Beograd~~1.30 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 18~~9 v 3

~~The market · Novi Pazar win~~38% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Novi Pazar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Novi Pazar win	40%	38%	+2
Draw	30%	29%	+1
IMT Novi Beograd win	30%	33%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	43%	50%	−7
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	30%	−8
Novi Pazar or draw	70%	67%	+3
Novi Pazar clean sheet	34%	–	–
IMT Novi Beograd clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 10.6 8.8 5.4 1 10.8 14.0 6.9 2.5 2 7.8 8.3 4.5 3 3.4 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Novi Pazar down, IMT Novi Beograd across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,575 Super Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.6% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Novi Pazar at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). IMT Novi Beograd away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Novi Pazar, 1.08 for IMT Novi Beograd. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 12:35. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~IMT 2–3 NOV · NOV 1–2 IMT · IMT 0–0 NOV · NOV 3–1 IMT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug

NOVI PAZAR

LDWDDL0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

IMT NOVI BEOGRAD

LWDLDW1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	11	+24	31
2	Vojvodina	12	+16	28
3	IMT Novi Beograd	11	+6	18
4	Železničar Pančevo	10	+7	17
5	Radnicki 1923	11	+3	17
6	Radnik Surdulica	12	+1	17
7	Mladost Lucani	11	−2	17
8	Cukaricki	12	−3	15
9	Novi Pazar	11	−2	13
10	FK Partizan	10	−1	11
11	OFK Beograd	12	−8	11
12	Macva	12	−11	10
13	Radnicki NIS	11	−11	8
14	Zemun	12	−19	3