Mladost Lucani v OFK Beograd prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:35

Mladost Lucani 0–0 OFK Beograd OFK BEOGRAD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said OFK Beograd win~~36%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.741

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.758

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said OFK Beograd win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: OFK Beograd was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 35–28–37
1′KICK-OFF Mladost Lucani v OFK Beograd
8′Much as we predicted: OFK Beograd was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 35–29–36
9′Much as we predicted: OFK Beograd was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 34–29–36
26′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Mladost Lucani
45′SECOND HALF Mladost Lucani 0–0 OFK Beograd
59′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Mladost Lucani
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Mladost Lucani · Mladost Lucani
67′🟨 YELLOW · 68' OFK Beograd
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' OFK Beograd · OFK Beograd
76′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Mladost Lucani
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' OFK Beograd · OFK Beograd
80′🟨 YELLOW · 81' OFK Beograd
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Mladost Lucani · Mladost Lucani
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' OFK Beograd · OFK Beograd
FTFULL TIME Mladost Lucani 0–0 OFK Beograd
FTMladost Lucani 0–0 OFK Beograd · OFK Beograd win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

Mladost Lucani win34%

Draw30%

OFK Beograd win36%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:00

VenueStadion Mladost

Line-ups

Mladost Lucani

5-4-1

OFK Beograd

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mladost Lucani

OFK Beograd

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Mladost Lucani	10	−2	16
11	OFK Beograd	10	−8	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Mladost Lucani

5-4-1

1 S. Stamenković

17 A. Varjačić

7 N. Andrić

30 N. Ćirković

33 V. Jovanović

37 F. Mladenović

88 Vasil Tasovski

29 D. Jovančić

39 J. Uzuegbunam

32 B. Jovičić

22 João

Coach · R. Ćurčić

Substitutes

9 · Petar Bojić

14 · T. Bondarenko

25 · J. Ćirić

44 · M. Cvetković

36 · D. Djokic

12 · M. Joksimović

10 · O. Krsmanovic

27 · Nenad Radić

40 · Nikola Ćirović

24 · V. Marković

99 · Ž. Samčović

OFK Beograd

3-4-2-1

97 N. Stojišić

4 A. Pavlovic

14 M. Momčilović

15 N. Maraš

27 H. Aderoju

6 S. Peña

3 E. Addo

2 S. Despotovski

19 D. Rankovic

47 S. Stojković

9 Ethan Hoard

Coach · Radoslav Batak

Substitutes

31 · Vuk Draškić

11 · T. De Barr

23 · M. Rodić

20 · J. Šljivić

24 · U. Stojanović

18 · H. Touré

45 · A. Vukičević

7 · T. Wouter

17 · M. Bešić

91 · A. Vasilić

77 · M. Gobeljić

Our number · ofk beograd winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

36% The market38%

Us36%

~~Market~~38%

We make OFK Beograd a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ofk beograd win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mladost Lucani win	34%	33%	+1
Draw	30%	29%	+1
OFK Beograd win	36%	38%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	45%	−2
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	70%	69%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	25%	−3
Mladost Lucani or draw	64%	62%	+2
Mladost Lucani clean sheet	30%	–	–
OFK Beograd clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.3 9.9 6.7 2.8 1 9.5 13.9 7.8 3.2 2 6.3 7.6 4.6 3 2.5 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mladost Lucani down, OFK Beograd across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,570 Super Liga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.4% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.20 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mladost Lucani at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). OFK Beograd away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Mladost Lucani, 1.23 for OFK Beograd. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 18:49. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.20

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MLA 0–0 OFK · OFK 1–1 MLA · OFK 1–0 MLA · OFK 0–0 MLA

Form · last six in Super Liga

MLADOST LUCANI

WWLWLW1–0 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 2–1

OFK BEOGRAD

LWLDLL0–2 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	11	+24	31
2	Vojvodina	11	+14	25
3	IMT Novi Beograd	11	+6	18
4	Železničar Pančevo	10	+7	17
5	Radnicki 1923	10	+5	17
6	Mladost Lucani	10	−2	16
7	Radnik Surdulica	11	−2	14
8	Novi Pazar	11	−2	13
9	Cukaricki	11	−6	12
10	FK Partizan	10	−1	11
11	OFK Beograd	10	−8	9
12	Macva	11	−11	9
13	Radnicki NIS	10	−8	8
14	Zemun	11	−16	3