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Model 1.2

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Macva v OFK Beograd

Macva
1–1Full time
OFK Beograd

Super Liga · SAT 17 OCT · Gradski Stadion Sabac

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:34
Macva 1–1 OFK Beograd OFK BEOGRAD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said OFK Beograd win41%
The market said46%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.761
The market’s Brier score0.804

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said OFK Beograd win at 41%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: OFK Beograd 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 30–29–40
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Macva v OFK Beograd
  4. 6′We said OFK Beograd at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 12–18–70
  5. 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Macva 0–1 OFK Beograd
  6. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' OFK Beograd win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
  7. 7′OFK Beograd find the net on 6′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–18–70
  8. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' OFK Beograd win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
  9. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Strahinja Stojković · OFK Beograd
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 9–19–72
  11. 35′8 shots for Macva, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 27–37–35
  12. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Macva 1–1 OFK Beograd
  13. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' OFK Beograd win: 41% at kick-off, 35% now
  14. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was OFK Beograd win 34%)
  15. 41′L. Pejović scores for Macva on 34′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 27–40–34
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Macva 1–1 OFK Beograd
  17. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' OFK Beograd · On: J. Šljivić · Off: Tayrell·Wouter
  18. 45′SECOND HALF Macva 1–1 OFK Beograd
  19. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' OFK Beograd · On: Uroš Stojanović · Off: Strahinja Stojković
  20. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' OFK Beograd win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
  21. 54′We said OFK Beograd at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 23–47–29
  22. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Đ. Ranković · OFK Beograd
  23. 65′We said OFK Beograd at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 19–57–24
  24. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Nemanja Stevanović · Macva
  25. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Macva · On: stefan colovic · Off: mitar ergelas
  26. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Macva · On: Vasilije Đurić · Off: Đorđe Đorđić
  27. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' OFK Beograd win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
  28. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' OFK Beograd · On: Tjay De Barr · Off: Đ. Ranković
  29. 72′We said OFK Beograd at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 16–65–19
  30. 78′We said OFK Beograd at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 12–74–14
  31. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' OFK Beograd win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
  32. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Macva · On: Kristijan Tojcic · Off: Bosko Vrastanovic
  33. 83′We said OFK Beograd at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
  34. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Macva · On: Nikša Delibašić · Off: Milan Vidakov
  35. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Macva · On: V. Ilić · Off: Nikola Lainović
  36. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Stefan Despotovski · OFK Beograd
  37. 90′We said OFK Beograd at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  38. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Kristijan Tojcic · Macva
  39. FTFULL TIME Macva 1–1 OFK Beograd
  40. FTMacva 1–1 OFK Beograd · OFK Beograd win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

OFK Beograd are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Macva 30%, draw 29%, OFK Beograd 41%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Macva v OFK BeogradBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Macva win30%
Draw29%
OFK Beograd win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueGradski Stadion Sabac

Line-ups

Macva

4-2-3-1

OFK Beograd

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Macva

OFK Beograd

7Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

Last match: 12 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
11OFK Beograd11−810
12Macva11−119

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Macva

4-2-3-1

89 V. Jovanović

17 N. Lainović

19 I. Ristivojević

15 S. Sladojević

44 N. Stevanović

34 Danilo Knežević

8 B. Vraštanović

10 M. Ergelaš

30 Đorđe Đorđić

27 L. Pejović

9 M. Vidakov

Coach · N. Glušica

Substitutes

50 · B. Matić

4 · V. Ilic

26 · U. Drezgić

99 · N. Delibasic

33 · U. Blagojević

35 · Issa Kone

12 · K. Rakonic

5 · Darko Terzić

22 · K. Tojčić

55 · S. Čolović

21 · Vasilije Đurić

OFK Beograd

4-4-2

31 Vuk Draškić

47 S. Stojković

4 A. Pavlovic

15 N. Maraš

2 S. Despotovski

19 D. Rankovic

14 M. Momčilović

6 S. Peña

7 T. Wouter

42 Y. Silue

9 Ethan Hoard

Coach · Radoslav Batak

Substitutes

17 · M. Bešić

11 · T. De Barr

26 · M. Fall

16 · L. Ivanovic

24 · U. Stojanović

97 · N. Stojišić

18 · H. Touré

91 · A. Vasilić

45 · A. Vukičević

20 · J. Šljivić

Our number · ofk beograd winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
41% The market46%
Us41%
Market46%

We make OFK Beograd a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Macva v OFK Beograd1.12 – 1.35
Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 AugW1 D3 L2 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 9 v 1012 v 11
The market · OFK Beograd win46% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 16:56
Our probability · OFK Beograd win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Macva win30%26%+4
Draw29%28%+1
OFK Beograd win41%46%−5
Over 2.5 goals45%48%−3
Both teams to score50%52%−2
Over 1.5 goals71%71%0
Over 3.5 goals24%29%−5
Macva or draw59%54%+5
Macva clean sheet27%––
OFK Beograd clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%
0123450 10.0 10.3 7.6 3.5 1 8.5 13.6 8.3 3.8 2 5.4 7.0 4.6 2.1 3 2.1 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Macva down, OFK Beograd across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.33
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsMAC 2–0 OFK · MAC 1–1 OFK · OFK 2–1 MAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug

MACVA

WDDLLD1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2

OFK BEOGRAD

WLDLLD1–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–5 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1FK Crvena Zvezda11+2431
2Vojvodina11+1425
3IMT Novi Beograd11+618
4Železničar Pančevo10+717
5Radnicki 192310+517
6Radnik Surdulica12+117
7Mladost Lucani11−217
8Novi Pazar11−213
9Cukaricki11−612
10FK Partizan10−111
11OFK Beograd11−810
12Macva11−119
13Radnicki NIS11−118
14Zemun11−163

The competition's standings before kick-off.