IMT Novi Beograd v Železničar Pančevo prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31

IMT Novi Beograd 0–1 Železničar Pančevo ŽELEZNIČAR PANČEVO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Železničar Pančevo win~~35%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.642

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.631

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Železničar Pančevo win at 35%.
1′KICK-OFF IMT Novi Beograd v Železničar Pančevo
2′Much as we predicted: Železničar Pančevo was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 34% now. 0–0 · 34–31–34
4′We published Železničar Pančevo at 35%. Our model now makes it 66%. 0–1 · 14–20–66
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' IMT Novi Beograd 0–1 Železničar Pančevo
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Železničar Pančevo win: 35% at kick-off, 66% now
5′Železničar Pančevo score on 4′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–20–66
5′5′: David Akpan Ankeye on the scoresheet for Železničar Pančevo, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–20–66
21′SUBSTITUTION · 20' IMT Novi Beograd · On: Daniel Aghahowa · Off: Charly Keita
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Nemanja Vidojevic · Železničar Pančevo
25′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Iván Martos · IMT Novi Beograd
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Daniel Aghahowa · IMT Novi Beograd
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 10–21–69
34′We published Železničar Pančevo at 35%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
45′SECOND HALF IMT Novi Beograd 0–1 Železničar Pančevo
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' IMT Novi Beograd · On: François Kamano · Off: Vladimir Radocaj
48′HALF-TIME IMT Novi Beograd 0–1 Železničar Pančevo
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+4' Uros Tegeltija · Železničar Pančevo
53′We published Železničar Pančevo at 35%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Železničar Pančevo win: 35% at kick-off, 75% now
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Železničar Pančevo · On: Davorin Tošić · Off: kristian sekularac
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Železničar Pančevo · On: Nikola jovanovic · Off: Aleksa Kuljanin
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Železničar Pančevo · On: Kwaku Karikari · Off: David Akpan Ankeye
60′7 shots for IMT Novi Beograd, 2 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 4–19–77
62′IMT Novi Beograd have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 4–18–78
65′We published Železničar Pančevo at 35%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
74′We published Železničar Pančevo at 35%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 1–14–85
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Železničar Pančevo win: 35% at kick-off, 85% now
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Stefan Šapić · IMT Novi Beograd
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' IMT Novi Beograd · On: Tadija Cojic · Off: Djordje Radivojevic
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' IMT Novi Beograd · On: Karl Kezy Fabien · Off: Josué Tiendrébéogo
80′We published Železničar Pančevo at 35%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' IMT Novi Beograd · On: Julián Delmás · Off: Stefan Šapić
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Železničar Pančevo · On: Milos Pantovic · Off: Srđan Plavšić
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Železničar Pančevo · On: Stefan Obradović · Off: Mamane Moustapha Amadou Sabo
87′We published Železničar Pančevo at 35%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Železničar Pančevo win: 35% at kick-off, 95% now
93′IMT Novi Beograd have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–2–98
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Karl Kezy Fabien · IMT Novi Beograd
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Nikola jovanovic · Železničar Pančevo
FTFULL TIME IMT Novi Beograd 0–1 Železničar Pančevo
FTIMT Novi Beograd 0–1 Železničar Pančevo · Železničar Pančevo win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Železničar Pančevo just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: IMT Novi Beograd 34%, draw 31%, Železničar Pančevo 35%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on IMT Novi Beograd v Železničar PančevoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

IMT Novi Beograd win34%

Draw31%

Železničar Pančevo win35%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadion FK IMT

Line-ups

IMT Novi Beograd

4-2-3-1

Železničar Pančevo

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

IMT Novi Beograd

Železničar Pančevo

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	IMT Novi Beograd	12	+7	21
4	Železničar Pančevo	11	+8	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

IMT Novi Beograd

4-2-3-1

1 O. Čančarević

45 Ismael Casas

5 M. Sissako

65 S. Šapić

3 Iván Martos

20 D. Radivojevic

22 Vasilije Novicic

27 V. Radočaj

18 W. Tiendrébéogo

7 N. Glišić

99 C. Keita

Coach · Z. Popović

Substitutes

2 · Julián Delmás

29 · K. Fabien

40 · F. Kamano

14 · I. Kebe

94 · V. Kiankaulua

37 · Daniel Aghahowa

21 · Matej Pribišić

28 · A. Milanovic

24 · Luka Gutic

19 · T. Cojic

23 · D. Akrofi

Železničar Pančevo

4-1-4-1

1 Z. Popović

19 U. Tegeltija

6 M. Milikić

5 N. Vidojević

33 N. Đuričić

26 M. Amadou Sabo

17 A. Kuljanin

20 J. Jevremović

77 K. Šekularac

95 S. Plavšić

21 D. Ankeye

Coach · R. Koković

Substitutes

47 · Yassin Sbai

12 · A. Yusif

27 · M. Pantović

63 · S. Obradović

66 · J. Miladinović

88 · C. Lhernault

90 · K. Kwaku

11 · N. Jovanović

14 · D. Tosic

70 · Leo Agostinho

7 · M. Ćurić

Our number · železničar pančevo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

35% The market35%

Us35%

~~Market~~35%

We make Železničar Pančevo a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · IMT Novi Beograd v Železničar Pančevo~~1.13 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 20~~3 v 4

~~The market · Železničar Pančevo win~~35% · ours 35%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Železničar Pančevo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
IMT Novi Beograd win	34%	35%	−1
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Železničar Pančevo win	35%	35%	0
Over 2.5 goals	39%	45%	−6
Both teams to score	46%	51%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	67%	70%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	19%	26%	−7
IMT Novi Beograd or draw	65%	65%	0
IMT Novi Beograd clean sheet	33%	–	–
Železničar Pančevo clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 11.9 10.7 6.7 2.6 1 10.7 14.3 7.4 2.8 2 6.7 7.4 4.2 3 2.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+IMT Novi Beograd down, Železničar Pančevo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,578 Super Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

IMT Novi Beograd at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Železničar Pančevo away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for IMT Novi Beograd, 1.13 for Železničar Pančevo. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 16:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ZEL 1–0 IMT · IMT 1–4 ZEL · IMT 0–1 ZEL · IMT 1–1 ZEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 30 Aug

IMT NOVI BEOGRAD

WDLDWW2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

ŽELEZNIČAR PANČEVO

LWLWWW0–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	12	+28	34
2	Vojvodina	12	+16	28
3	IMT Novi Beograd	12	+7	21
4	Železničar Pančevo	11	+8	20
5	Radnicki 1923	11	+3	17
6	Radnik Surdulica	12	+1	17
7	Mladost Lucani	12	−6	17
8	Cukaricki	12	−3	15
9	Novi Pazar	12	−3	13
10	FK Partizan	11	−2	11
11	OFK Beograd	12	−8	11
12	Macva	12	−11	10
13	Radnicki NIS	11	−11	8
14	Zemun	12	−19	3