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IMT Novi Beograd v Radnik Surdulica

IMT Novi Beograd

1–0Full time

Radnik Surdulica

Super Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion FK IMT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

IMT Novi Beograd 1–0 Radnik Surdulica IMT NOVI BEOGRAD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said IMT Novi Beograd win~~44%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.469

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.351

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said IMT Novi Beograd win at 44%.
2′Little has changed for our model: IMT Novi Beograd 44% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
2′KICK-OFF IMT Novi Beograd v Radnik Surdulica
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' IMT Novi Beograd 1–0 Radnik Surdulica
20′⚽ GOAL · 21' IMT Novi Beograd 1–0 Radnik Surdulica
21′Karl Kezy Fabien scores for IMT Novi Beograd on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' IMT Novi Beograd win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
23′We said IMT Novi Beograd at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Miloš Popović · Radnik Surdulica
23′SUBSTITUTION · 24' IMT Novi Beograd · On: Vladimir Radocaj · Off: Karl Kezy Fabien
25′SUBSTITUTION · 24' IMT Novi Beograd · On: Vladimir Radocaj · Off: Karl Kezy Fabien
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Filip Zunic · Radnik Surdulica
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Lazar Radojičić · Radnik Surdulica
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' vasilije novicic · IMT Novi Beograd
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Radnik Surdulica · On: Luka Jovanović · Off: Emmanuel Quarshie
48′SECOND HALF IMT Novi Beograd 1–0 Radnik Surdulica
56′We said IMT Novi Beograd at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' IMT Novi Beograd · On: Andrej Milanović · Off: Aleksandar Sedlar
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' IMT Novi Beograd · On: Daniel Aghahowa · Off: Charly Keita
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Radnik Surdulica · On: Djordje Jovanovic · Off: Milos Spasic
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Radnik Surdulica · On: Darko Stojanović · Off: Aleksandar Pejović
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Moussa Sissako · IMT Novi Beograd
71′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Josué Tiendrébéogo · IMT Novi Beograd
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Radnik Surdulica · On: Otabek Shukurov · Off: Uros Lazic
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' IMT Novi Beograd · On: François Kamano · Off: nikola glisic
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' IMT Novi Beograd · On: Ibrahima Kebe · Off: Josué Tiendrébéogo
FTFULL TIME IMT Novi Beograd 1–0 Radnik Surdulica
FTIMT Novi Beograd 1–0 Radnik Surdulica · IMT Novi Beograd win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

IMT Novi Beograd win44%

Draw30%

Radnik Surdulica win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Stadion FK IMT

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

IMT Novi Beograd

4-2-3-1

1 Ognjen Čančarević

2 Julián Delmás

15 Aleksandar Sedlar

5 Moussa Sissako

45 Ismael Casas

18 Josué Tiendrebeogo

22 Vasilije Novičić

29 Karl Fabien

19 Tadija Cojić

7 Nikola Glišić

99 Charly Keita

Coach · Z. Popović

Substitutes

27 · Vladimir Radočaj

28 · Andrej Milanović

37 · Aghaowa Daniel Agboghidi

14 · Ibrahima Kébé

40 · François Kamano

12 · Kadir Gicić

24 · Luka Gutic

23 · Daniel Akrofi

20 · Đorđe Radivojević

Radnik Surdulica

4-2-3-1

99 Stefan Ranđelović

22 Uroš Lazić

6 David Stojanović

37 Sadick Abubakar

21 Uroš Filipović

5 Miloš Popović

28 Aleksandar Pejović

47 Emmanuel Quarshie

30 Martin Novaković

27 Miloš Spasić

9 Vukašin Bogdanović

Coach · Zoran Rendulic

Substitutes

18 · Filip Žunić

20 · Luka Jovanović

7 · Darko Stojanović

88 · Đorđe Jovanović

29 · Otabek Shukurov

23 · Lazar Radojičić

34 · Niksa Blagojevic

14 · Uroš Ilić

25 · Teo Lakić

3 · Luka Zorić

92 · Ayouba Kosiah

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

IMT Novi Beograd

4-2-3-1

1 Ognjen Čančarević

2 Julián Delmás

15 Aleksandar Sedlar

5 Moussa Sissako

45 Ismael Casas

18 Josué Tiendrebeogo

22 Vasilije Novičić

29 Karl Fabien

19 Tadija Cojić

7 Nikola Glišić

99 Charly Keita

Coach · Z. Popović

Substitutes

27 · Vladimir Radočaj

28 · Andrej Milanović

37 · Aghaowa Daniel Agboghidi

14 · Ibrahima Kébé

40 · François Kamano

12 · Kadir Gicić

24 · Luka Gutic

23 · Daniel Akrofi

20 · Đorđe Radivojević

Radnik Surdulica

4-2-3-1

99 Stefan Ranđelović

22 Uroš Lazić

6 David Stojanović

37 Sadick Abubakar

21 Uroš Filipović

5 Miloš Popović

28 Aleksandar Pejović

47 Emmanuel Quarshie

30 Martin Novaković

27 Miloš Spasić

9 Vukašin Bogdanović

Coach · Zoran Rendulic

Substitutes

18 · Filip Žunić

20 · Luka Jovanović

7 · Darko Stojanović

88 · Đorđe Jovanović

29 · Otabek Shukurov

23 · Lazar Radojičić

34 · Niksa Blagojevic

14 · Uroš Ilić

25 · Teo Lakić

3 · Luka Zorić

92 · Ayouba Kosiah

Our number · imt novi beograd winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

44% The market52%

Us44%

~~Market~~52%

We make IMT Novi Beograd a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · imt novi beograd win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
IMT Novi Beograd win	44%	52%	−8
Draw	30%	27%	+3
Radnik Surdulica win	26%	22%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	40%	47%	−7
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	71%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	27%	−7
IMT Novi Beograd or draw	74%	78%	−4
IMT Novi Beograd clean sheet	39%	–	–
Radnik Surdulica clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 11.6 8.6 4.7 1 12.4 13.9 6.1 2 9.0 8.4 4.0 3 4.0 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+IMT Novi Beograd down, Radnik Surdulica across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,564 Super Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.40 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

IMT Novi Beograd at home: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Radnik Surdulica away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for IMT Novi Beograd, 0.95 for Radnik Surdulica. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 13:40. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~IMT 0–0 RAD · RAD 2–0 IMT · IMT 5–2 RAD · RAD 0–1 IMT

Form · last six in Super Liga

IMT NOVI BEOGRAD

DLWDLD0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

RADNIK SURDULICA

WLWDDD1–0 · 1–5 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 4–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	10	+21	28
2	Vojvodina	10	+11	22
3	Radnicki 1923	9	+8	17
4	Mladost Lucani	10	−2	16
5	IMT Novi Beograd	10	+5	15
6	Železničar Pančevo	9	+4	14
7	Radnik Surdulica	10	−1	14
8	Novi Pazar	10	−1	13
9	Cukaricki	10	−6	11
10	OFK Beograd	10	−8	9
11	FK Partizan	9	−2	8
12	Radnicki NIS	9	−5	8
13	Macva	10	−11	8
14	Zemun	10	−13	3