FK Partizan v Novi Pazar prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

FK Partizan 1–0 Novi Pazar FK PARTIZAN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FK Partizan win~~60%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.235

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.198

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FK Partizan win at 60%.
0′Little has changed for our model: FK Partizan 60% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–20–18
1′Little has changed for our model: FK Partizan 60% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–20–19
1′KICK-OFF FK Partizan v Novi Pazar
45′HALF-TIME FK Partizan 0–0 Novi Pazar
45′SECOND HALF FK Partizan 0–0 Novi Pazar
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Novi Pazar · On: Kaheim Dixon · Off: Johnson Agwom Dauda
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' FK Partizan · On: Milan aleksic · Off: Iddrisu Baba
63′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Aleksandar Miljković · Novi Pazar
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' FK Partizan · On: Nikola Cumic · Off: Zubairu Ibrahim
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' FK Partizan · On: Jeferson Marinho dos Santos · Off: Erik Kojzek
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' FK Partizan · On: B. Kostić · Off: Igor Miladinovic
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Novi Pazar · On: Fejsal Mulic · Off: Adem Ljajić
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Novi Pazar · On: Mihajlo Petrovic · Off: Skima Togbe
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Novi Pazar · On: stefan malentijevic · Off: Ivan Davidovic
80′⚽ GOAL · 81' FK Partizan 0–0 Novi Pazar · Jeferson Marinho dos Santos
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' FK Partizan 1–0 Novi Pazar · Jeferson Marinho dos Santos
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Novi Pazar · On: Nikola skrobonja · Off: Jovan Marinkovic
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' FK Partizan · On: Mateja Milovanovic · Off: Mario Jurčevič
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Demba Seck · FK Partizan
FTFULL TIME FK Partizan 1–0 Novi Pazar
FTFK Partizan 1–0 Novi Pazar · FK Partizan win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

FK Partizan win60%

Draw22%

Novi Pazar win18%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueStadion Partizana

Line-ups

FK Partizan

4-2-3-1

Novi Pazar

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FK Partizan

Novi Pazar

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Novi Pazar	10	−1	13
12	FK Partizan	9	−2	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FK Partizan

4-2-3-1

1 M. Milošević

20 Samson Nwulu

21 Sidney Lima

40 N. Simić

4 M. Jurčevič

10 I. Miladinović

14 I. Baba

19 D. Seck

39 Z. Ibrahim

8 A. Zekovic

9 E. Kojzek

Coach · Sasa Ilic

Substitutes

17 · M. Aleksić

90 · Z. Alilović

27 · N. Čumić

24 · V. Đurđević

89 · Jeh

99 · B. Kostić

31 · M. Krunić

44 · S. Milić

5 · M. Milovanović

23 · S. Mitrović

32 · N. Trifunović

Novi Pazar

4-2-3-1

1 Bogdan Matijašević

2 A. Miljković

4 Allan De León

23 J. Marinković

14 N. Stankovic

8 Skima Togbe

24 I. Davidović

10 D. Sadi

6 P. Gadio

26 D. Johnson Agwom

22 A. Ljajić

Coach · Strahinja Pandurovic

Substitutes

11 · Nikola Skrobonja

12 · M. Preković

21 · M. Petrović

99 · F. Mulić

3 · V. Mirosavić

5 · S. Melentijević

9 · V. Kotzebue

18 · H. Kadrić

20 · K. Dixon

32 · Bojan Adžić

17 · M. Malekinušić

Our number · fk partizan winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

60% The market64%

Us60%

~~Market~~64%

We make FK Partizan a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fk partizan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Partizan win	60%	64%	−3
Draw	22%	21%	+1
Novi Pazar win	18%	16%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	63%	65%	−1
Both teams to score	60%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	84%	83%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	41%	45%	−4
FK Partizan or draw	82%	84%	−2
FK Partizan clean sheet	33%	–	–
Novi Pazar clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.8 3.5 2.4 1 7.5 9.8 5.0 2 8.9 9.6 5.3 3 6.4 6.9 3.8 4 3.5 3.8 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Partizan down, Novi Pazar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,567 Super Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Partizan at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Novi Pazar away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.17 goals for FK Partizan, 1.11 for Novi Pazar. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:44. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 13

~~Both scored~~6 of 13

~~Last meetings~~FKP 2–1 NOV · NOV 2–3 FKP · FKP 2–0 NOV · NOV 2–1 FKP

Form · last six in Super Liga

FK PARTIZAN

LLWLLD0–1 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 4–4

NOVI PAZAR

WLDWDD2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	11	+24	31
2	Vojvodina	10	+11	22
3	IMT Novi Beograd	11	+6	18
4	Radnicki 1923	10	+5	17
5	Mladost Lucani	10	−2	16
6	Železničar Pančevo	9	+4	14
7	Radnik Surdulica	11	−2	14
8	Novi Pazar	10	−1	13
9	Cukaricki	11	−6	12
10	OFK Beograd	10	−8	9
11	Macva	11	−11	9
12	FK Partizan	9	−2	8
13	Radnicki NIS	9	−5	8
14	Zemun	10	−13	3