FK Partizan v Cukaricki prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

FK Partizan 0–2 Cukaricki FK PARTIZAN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FK Partizan win~~57%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.019

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.015

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FK Partizan win at 57%.
0′KICK-OFF FK Partizan v Cukaricki
2′Little has changed for our model: FK Partizan 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–20
35′A goal for Cukaricki on 34′. 0–0 · 49–31–20
35′Milan djokovic scores for Cukaricki on 35′. 0–0 · 49–31–20
35′We said FK Partizan at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–26–51
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' FK Partizan 0–1 Cukaricki · Milan djokovic
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' FK Partizan win: 57% at kick-off, 23% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Cukaricki win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was FK Partizan win 49%)
36′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 22–27–51
39′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Cukaricki · On: Uroš Nikolić · Off: Marko Docić
43′We said FK Partizan at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–27–54
45′Cukaricki ahead on 45′ through Milan djokovic. 0–2. 0–2 · 5–13–82
45′HALF-TIME FK Partizan 0–2 Cukaricki
45′SECOND HALF FK Partizan 0–2 Cukaricki
46′We said FK Partizan at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–12–82
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' FK Partizan 0–2 Cukaricki
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' FK Partizan win: 57% at kick-off, 5% now
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FK Partizan · On: Zubairu Ibrahim · Off: Nikola Cumic
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FK Partizan · On: Iddrisu Baba · Off: Nemanja Trifunovic
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FK Partizan · On: Mateja Milovanovic · Off: stefan petrovic
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FK Partizan · On: Erik Kojzek · Off: aleks zekovic
50′We said FK Partizan at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–12–84
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Uros·Miladinovic · Cukaricki
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Nikola·Stankovic · Cukaricki
56′12 shots for FK Partizan, 7 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 3–10–87
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Cukaricki · On: Mateja Prokopijevic · Off: karel mustmaa
65′16 shots for FK Partizan, 7 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FK Partizan · On: Milan aleksic · Off: Igor Miladinovic
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Mateja Prokopijevic · Cukaricki
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Cukaricki · On: L Đorđević · Off: Uros·Miladinovic
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Cukaricki · On: Remy Rees-Dottin · Off: Đorđe Jovanović
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Cukaricki · On: Aboubacar Cisse · Off: Lazar Marković
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Jeferson Marinho dos Santos · FK Partizan
78′20 shots for FK Partizan, 7 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–97
81′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Sambou Sissoko · Cukaricki
FTFULL TIME FK Partizan 0–2 Cukaricki
FTFK Partizan 0–2 Cukaricki · FK Partizan win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FK Partizan are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Partizan 57%, draw 23%, Cukaricki 20%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on FK Partizan v CukarickiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FK Partizan win57%

Draw23%

Cukaricki win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadion Partizana

Line-ups

FK Partizan

Cukaricki

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Partizan

Cukaricki

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Cukaricki	12	−3	15
10	FK Partizan	11	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FK Partizan

Formation not confirmed

27 N. Čumić

1 M. Milošević

8 A. Zekovic

32 N. Trifunović

40 N. Simić

33 S. Petrović

20 Samson Nwulu

10 I. Miladinović

21 Sidney Lima

99 B. Kostić

89 Jeh

Coach · Sasa Ilic

Substitutes

17 · M. Aleksić

90 · Z. Alilović

14 · I. Baba

24 · V. Đurđević

9 · E. Kojzek

31 · M. Krunić

46 · M. Lekic

44 · S. Milić

5 · M. Milovanović

23 · S. Mitrović

39 · Z. Ibrahim

Cukaricki

Formation not confirmed

26 M. Đoković

5 M. Docić

99 djordje jovanovic

23 I. Maiga

8 L. Marković

10 U. Miladinović

18 Karel Mustmaa

3 Z. Šehović

14 S. Sissoko

24 N. Stanković

81 V. Čarapić

Coach · M. S. Jakšić

Substitutes

20 · A. Cisse

9 · Luka Đorđević

73 · N. Miletić

27 · A. Nanque

1 · Đ. Nikolić

72 · U. Nikolić

50 · M. Pavkov

87 · Mateja Prokopijević

51 · Remy Rees-Dottin

4 · N. Tomović

77 · A. Bajović

Our number · fk partizan winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

57% The market57%

Us57%

~~Market~~57%

We make FK Partizan a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FK Partizan v Cukaricki~~2.02 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 15~~10 v 9

~~The market · FK Partizan win~~57% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FK Partizan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Partizan win	57%	57%	0
Draw	23%	23%	0
Cukaricki win	20%	20%	0
Over 2.5 goals	60%	61%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	40%	−2
FK Partizan or draw	80%	80%	0
FK Partizan clean sheet	33%	–	–
Cukaricki clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.3 4.2 2.8 1 8.1 10.5 5.4 2.1 2 8.8 9.7 5.4 2.0 3 5.9 6.5 3.6 4 3.0 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Partizan down, Cukaricki across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,582 Super Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.8% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Partizan at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Cukaricki away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for FK Partizan, 1.12 for Cukaricki. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CUK 0–0 FKP · FKP 0–0 CUK · CUK 4–1 FKP · CUK 0–1 FKP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug

FK PARTIZAN

WLLDWL3–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 4–4 · 1–0 · 0–1

CUKARICKI

LLDLDW0–5 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	12	+28	34
2	Vojvodina	12	+16	28
3	Železničar Pančevo	12	+9	23
4	IMT Novi Beograd	13	+6	21
5	Radnicki 1923	12	+4	20
6	Radnik Surdulica	13	0	17
7	Mladost Lucani	12	−6	17
8	Novi Pazar	13	−1	16
9	Cukaricki	12	−3	15
10	FK Partizan	11	−2	11
11	OFK Beograd	12	−8	11
12	Macva	13	−12	10
13	Radnicki NIS	12	−13	8
14	Zemun	13	−18	6