FK Crvena Zvezda v Mladost Lucani prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

FK Crvena Zvezda 5–1 Mladost Lucani FK CRVENA ZVEZDA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FK Crvena Zvezda win~~82%

~~The market said~~88%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.051

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.024

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FK Crvena Zvezda win at 82%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FK Crvena Zvezda 82% before kick-off, 82% now. 0–0 · 82–13–5
1′KICK-OFF FK Crvena Zvezda v Mladost Lucani
26′8 shots for FK Crvena Zvezda, 0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 74–19–6
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' FK Crvena Zvezda win: 82% at kick-off, 72% now
36′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 70%. 0–0 · 70–23–7
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Mohammad Abu Fani · FK Crvena Zvezda
38′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 69%. 0–0 · 69–24–7
38′FK Crvena Zvezda have had 13 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 69–24–7
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' FK Crvena Zvezda 1–0 Mladost Lucani
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' FK Crvena Zvezda win: 82% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME FK Crvena Zvezda 1–0 Mladost Lucani
45′SECOND HALF FK Crvena Zvezda 1–0 Mladost Lucani
46′Aleksandar Katai scores for FK Crvena Zvezda on 43′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 93–6–1
48′47′: Marko Arnautović on the scoresheet for FK Crvena Zvezda, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
48′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' FK Crvena Zvezda 2–0 Mladost Lucani · Marko Arnautović
49′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Matej Strika · FK Crvena Zvezda
58′Mohammad Abu Fani scores for FK Crvena Zvezda on 56′. 2–0 · 99–1–0
58′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 56' FK Crvena Zvezda 3–0 Mladost Lucani · Mohammad Abu Fani
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FK Crvena Zvezda · On: Kim Ye-geon · Off: Mohammad Abu Fani
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FK Crvena Zvezda · On: Mirko Ivanić · Off: Kristiyan Balov
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Mladost Lucani · On: David Djokic · Off: Vasil Tašovski
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Mladost Lucani · On: Vukasin Markovic · Off: Jovan ciric
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FK Crvena Zvezda · On: Rade Krunić · Off: Muhammed Cham Saracevic
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FK Crvena Zvezda · On: Timi Elsnik · Off: Mahmudu Bajo
74′73′: Osman Bukari on the scoresheet for FK Crvena Zvezda. 3–0 · 100–0–0
75′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 73' FK Crvena Zvezda 4–0 Mladost Lucani · Osman Bukari
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Mladost Lucani · On: ognjen bondzulic · Off: mihailo todosijevic
77′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Mladost Lucani · On: Taras Bondarenko · Off: Vukašin Jovanović
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' FK Crvena Zvezda 4–1 Mladost Lucani
78′77′: Vukasin Markovic on the scoresheet for Mladost Lucani, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
80′FK Crvena Zvezda ahead on 79′ through Timi Elsnik. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' FK Crvena Zvezda 5–1 Mladost Lucani · Timi Elsnik
81′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FK Crvena Zvezda · On: Andrej Sibinovic · Off: Marko Arnautović
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Mladost Lucani · On: Nenad Radić · Off: Nemanja Petrović
FTFULL TIME FK Crvena Zvezda 5–1 Mladost Lucani
FTFK Crvena Zvezda 5–1 Mladost Lucani · FK Crvena Zvezda win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FK Crvena Zvezda are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Crvena Zvezda 82%, draw 13%, Mladost Lucani 5%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on FK Crvena Zvezda v Mladost LucaniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FK Crvena Zvezda win82%

Draw13%

Mladost Lucani win5%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueRajko Mitić Stadion

Line-ups

FK Crvena Zvezda

3-1-4-2

Mladost Lucani

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Crvena Zvezda

Mladost Lucani

3Days since last match6

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 12 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FK Crvena Zvezda

3-1-4-2

50 S. Radanović

30 F. Tebo Uchenna

13 M. Veljković

27 M. Strika

6 M. Bajo

14 O. Bukari

70 M. Cham

15 M. Abu Fani

8 K. Balov

7 M. Arnautović

10 A. Katai

Coach · Riera

Substitutes

9 · B. Dieng

21 · T. Elšnik

45 · S. Gudelj

77 · I. Guteša

4 · M. Ivanić

19 · Kim Ye-geon

33 · R. Krunić

37 · V. Lučić

3 · Y. Nakayama

55 · D. Saric

66 · Andrej Sibinovic

Mladost Lucani

5-4-1

99 Ž. Samčović

44 M. Cvetković

33 V. Jovanović

30 N. Ćirković

12 M. Joksimović

3 N. Petrović

88 Vasil Tasovski

32 B. Jovičić

5 V. Kijevčanin

25 J. Ćirić

22 João

Coach · R. Ćurčić

Substitutes

11 · O. Bondžulić

14 · T. Bondarenko

1 · S. Stamenković

24 · V. Marković

10 · O. Krsmanovic

36 · D. Djokic

77 · M. Kerkez

27 · Nenad Radić

40 · Nikola Ćirović

39 · J. Uzuegbunam

9 · Petar Bojić

Our number · fk crvena zvezda winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

82% The market88%

Us82%

~~Market~~88%

We make FK Crvena Zvezda an 82% chance to win. The market has them at 88%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.8–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FK Crvena Zvezda v Mladost Lucani~~2.78 – 0.57

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 23 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 31 v 17~~1 v 7

~~The market · FK Crvena Zvezda win~~88% · ours 82%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FK Crvena Zvezda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 88% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Crvena Zvezda win	82%	88%	−6
Draw	13%	9%	+4
Mladost Lucani win	5%	4%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	65%	71%	−6
Both teams to score	41%	35%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	85%	87%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	43%	51%	−8
FK Crvena Zvezda or draw	95%	96%	−1
FK Crvena Zvezda clean sheet	57%	–	–
Mladost Lucani clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.5%

0123450 4.2 1 9.4 6.1 2 13.5 7.6 2.2 3 12.3 6.9 2.0 4 8.6 4.8 5 4.9 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Crvena Zvezda down, Mladost Lucani across0–5 goals a side shown (93.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,575 Super Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.6% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Crvena Zvezda at home: 3.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mladost Lucani away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.78 goals for FK Crvena Zvezda, 0.57 for Mladost Lucani. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FKC 4–0 MLA · MLA 1–4 FKC · FKC 3–1 MLA · MLA 0–2 FKC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 23 Aug

FK CRVENA ZVEZDA

WDWWWW2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 3–0

MLADOST LUCANI

WLWLWD3–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	11	+24	31
2	Vojvodina	12	+16	28
3	IMT Novi Beograd	11	+6	18
4	Železničar Pančevo	10	+7	17
5	Radnicki 1923	11	+3	17
6	Radnik Surdulica	12	+1	17
7	Mladost Lucani	11	−2	17
8	Cukaricki	12	−3	15
9	Novi Pazar	11	−2	13
10	FK Partizan	10	−1	11
11	OFK Beograd	12	−8	11
12	Macva	12	−11	10
13	Radnicki NIS	11	−11	8
14	Zemun	12	−19	3