Cukaricki v Zemun prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Cukaricki 3–0 Zemun CUKARICKI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cukaricki win~~60%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.246

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.173

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cukaricki win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cukaricki was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–24–16
1′KICK-OFF Cukaricki v Zemun
16′Cukaricki find the net on 16′. 0–0 · 56–27–17
17′We published Cukaricki at 60%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–12–5
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Cukaricki 1–0 Zemun
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Cukaricki win: 60% at kick-off, 83% now
18′17′: Marko Knezevic puts it into the Zemun net, and it is 1–0. 1–0 · 83–12–5
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Ognjen Ilic · Zemun
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 83–13–4
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Mykhailo Meskhi · Zemun
45′HALF-TIME Cukaricki 2–0 Zemun
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Zemun · On: Đorđe Jovanović · Off: Ivan Ostojić
45′SECOND HALF Cukaricki 2–0 Zemun
46′We published Cukaricki at 60%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
46′Cukaricki ahead on 45′ through karel mustmaa. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Cukaricki 2–0 Zemun
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Cukaricki win: 60% at kick-off, 97% now
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Zemun · On: Godswill Vadze · Off: Ognjen Ilic
49′karel mustmaa scores for Cukaricki on 45′. 3–0 · 100–0–0
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Cukaricki 3–0 Zemun
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Cukaricki win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
50′We published Cukaricki at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
50′Uros·Miladinovic scores for Cukaricki on 48′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
51′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Milan Jokić · Zemun
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Zemun · On: Dimitrije Tabaković · Off: nemanja kalat
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Zemun · On: Andrej Milosevic · Off: Nikola Dovedan
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Cukaricki · On: Andrej bajovic · Off: karel mustmaa
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Cukaricki · On: Veljko Radosavljevic · Off: Mateja Prokopijevic
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cukaricki · On: Remy Rees-Dottin · Off: Lazar Marković
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Cukaricki · On: Milan Pavkov · Off: Đorđe Jovanović
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Cukaricki · On: L Đorđević · Off: Uros·Miladinovic
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Andrej bajovic · Cukaricki
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Remy Rees-Dottin · Cukaricki
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Zemun · On: Đorđe Petrović · Off: Milan Jokić
90′Full time, 3–0. We called Cukaricki at 60% — that one lands. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Cukaricki 3–0 Zemun
FTCukaricki 3–0 Zemun · Cukaricki win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cukaricki are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cukaricki 60%, draw 24%, Zemun 16%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Cukaricki v ZemunBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cukaricki win60%

Draw24%

Zemun win16%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueFK Čukarički Stadion

Line-ups

Cukaricki

4-2-3-1

Zemun

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cukaricki

Zemun

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Cukaricki	11	−6	12
14	Zemun	11	−16	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cukaricki

4-2-3-1

81 V. Čarapić

24 N. Stanković

23 I. Maiga

26 M. Đoković

3 Z. Šehović

14 S. Sissoko

87 Mateja Prokopijević

18 Karel Mustmaa

10 U. Miladinović

8 L. Marković

99 Đ. Jovanović

Coach · M. S. Jakšić

Substitutes

77 · A. Bajović

20 · A. Cisse

73 · N. Miletić

27 · A. Nanque

1 · Đ. Nikolić

50 · M. Pavkov

86 · Veljko Radosavljević

51 · Remy Rees-Dottin

4 · N. Tomović

9 · Luka Đorđević

19 · A. Ouedraogo

Zemun

4-2-3-1

1 M. Knežević

11 S. Knezevic

15 O. Stoimenovski

21 I. Ostojić

88 A. Kadijević

8 O. Ilić

32 M. Meskhi

31 N. Kalat

23 M. Jokić

14 N. Dovedan

10 N. Belaković

Coach · Gjorgji Mojsov

Substitutes

29 · A. Milosevic

27 · U. Ljubomirac

45 · M. Šarić

16 · M. Spremo

99 · M. Dubljanić

19 · G. Vadze

66 · V. Bakić

5 · Đ. Jovanović

20 · D. Petrovic

7 · Dimitrije Tabaković

9 · N. Petrusic

Our number · cukaricki winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

60% The market66%

Us60%

~~Market~~66%

We make Cukaricki a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cukaricki v Zemun~~1.87 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 3~~9 v 14

~~The market · Cukaricki win~~66% · ours 60%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cukaricki win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cukaricki win	60%	66%	−6
Draw	24%	21%	+3
Zemun win	16%	13%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	51%	57%	−6
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	78%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	37%	−8
Cukaricki or draw	84%	87%	−3
Cukaricki clean sheet	43%	–	–
Zemun clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.3%

0123450 7.8 4.8 2.5 1 11.3 11.3 4.5 2 11.2 9.5 4.1 3 7.0 5.9 2.5 4 3.4 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cukaricki down, Zemun across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,572 Super Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.3% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Cukaricki at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Zemun away: 0.60 scored, 2.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Cukaricki, 0.86 for Zemun. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug

CUKARICKI

LLLDLD0–4 · 0–5 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

ZEMUN

LLLDDL0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	11	+24	31
2	Vojvodina	11	+14	25
3	IMT Novi Beograd	11	+6	18
4	Železničar Pančevo	10	+7	17
5	Radnicki 1923	10	+5	17
6	Radnik Surdulica	12	+1	17
7	Mladost Lucani	11	−2	17
8	Novi Pazar	11	−2	13
9	Cukaricki	11	−6	12
10	FK Partizan	10	−1	11
11	OFK Beograd	11	−8	10
12	Macva	11	−11	9
13	Radnicki NIS	11	−11	8
14	Zemun	11	−16	3