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Cukaricki v Macva

Cukaricki

2–2Full time

Macva

Super Liga · SAT 10 OCT · FK Čukarički Stadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Cukaricki 2–2 Macva CUKARICKI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cukaricki win~~55%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.873

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.959

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 44 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cukaricki win at 55%.
1′Cukaricki ahead on 1′ through Uroš Nikolić. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–13–6
4′We published Cukaricki at 55%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–13–6
8′Đorđe Jovanović scores for Cukaricki on 7′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–4–1
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Cukaricki win: 55% at kick-off, 94% now
12′We published Cukaricki at 55%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Cukaricki win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
19′⚽ GOAL · 1' Cukaricki 2–0 Macva · Zlatan Šehović (assist Lazar Marković)
19′⚽ GOAL · 7' Cukaricki 2–0 Macva · Đorđe Jovanović (assist Remy Rees-Dottin)
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Milan djokovic · Cukaricki
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Cukaricki 2–1 Macva · Đorđe Jovanović
35′⚽ GOAL · 36' Cukaricki 2–1 Macva · mitar ergelas
36′36′ and it is 2–1: mitar ergelas on the scoresheet for Macva. 2–1 · 82–14–4
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Cukaricki win: 55% at kick-off, 96% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Cukaricki win: 55% at kick-off, 82% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Cukaricki win: 55% at kick-off, 82% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Cukaricki win: 55% at kick-off, 96% now
38′36′ and it is 2–1: mitar ergelas on the scoresheet for Macva. 2–1 · 82–14–4
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Cukaricki win: 55% at kick-off, 96% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Cukaricki win: 55% at kick-off, 82% now
43′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 82–14–3
45′HALF-TIME Cukaricki 2–1 Macva
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Macva · On: Milan Vidakov · Off: Nikša Delibašić
45′SECOND HALF Cukaricki 2–1 Macva
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Cukaricki win: 55% at kick-off, 82% now
46′HALF-TIME Cukaricki 2–1 Macva
46′SECOND HALF Cukaricki 2–1 Macva
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Macva · On: Nemanja Stevanović · Off: Uroš Blagojević
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Cukaricki win: 55% at kick-off, 82% now
47′⚽ GOAL · 1' Cukaricki 2–1 Macva · Zlatan Šehović (assist Lazar Marković)
47′⚽ GOAL · 7' Cukaricki 2–1 Macva · Đorđe Jovanović (assist Remy Rees-Dottin)
47′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Milan djokovic · Cukaricki
47′⚽ GOAL · 36' Cukaricki 2–1 Macva · mitar ergelas (assist Bosko Vrastanovic)
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Remy Rees-Dottin · Cukaricki
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Marko Docić · Cukaricki
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Milan Vidakov · Macva
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Macva · On: Vasilije Đurić · Off: Đorđe Đorđić
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Macva · On: stefan colovic · Off: mitar ergelas
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Cukaricki · On: L Đorđević · Off: Lazar Marković
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Cukaricki · On: karel mustmaa · Off: Remy Rees-Dottin
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Cukaricki · On: A. Ouedraogo · Off: Zlatan Šehović
73′🟥 RED CARD · 73' Macva
74′🟥 RED CARD · 74' Macva
75′🟥 RED CARD · 73' Marko Docić · Cukaricki
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Macva · On: Darko Terzić · Off: Bosko Vrastanovic
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Cukaricki · On: Nemanja Miletić · Off: Đorđe Jovanović
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Nikola Lainović · Macva
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Cukaricki 2–2 Macva · Vasilije Đurić
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' L Đorđević · Cukaricki
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Cukaricki · On: Milan Pavkov · Off: Milan djokovic
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Uros·Miladinovic · Cukaricki
FTFULL TIME Cukaricki 2–2 Macva
FTCukaricki 2–2 Macva · Cukaricki win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cukaricki win55%

Draw27%

Macva win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

Venue · FK Čukarički Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Cukaricki

4-2-3-1

81 Vladan Čarapić

24 Nikola Stanković

23 Ismael Maiga

26 Milan Đoković

3 Zlatan Šehović

72 Uroš Nikolić

5 Marko Docić

51 Remy Rees-Dottin

10 Uroš Miladinović

8 Lazar Marković

99 Đorđe Jovanović

Coach · M. S. Jakšić

Substitutes

19 · Assane Ouedraogo

18 · Karel Mustmaa

9 · Luka Đorđević

73 · Nemanja Miletić

50 · Milan Pavkov

12 · Lazar Kaličanin

4 · Nenad Tomović

77 · Andrej Bajović

20 · Aboubacar Cisse

86 · Veljko Radosavljević

87 · Mateja Prokopijević

Macva

4-2-3-1

89 Vukašin Jovanović

17 Nikola Lainović

26 Uroš Drezgić

35 Issa Kone

33 Uroš Blagojević

34 Danilo Knežević

8 Boško Vraštanović

10 Mitar Ergelaš

30 Đorđe Đorđić

27 Luka Pejović

99 Nikša Delibašić

Coach · N. Glušica

Substitutes

44 · Nemanja Stevanović

9 · Milan Vidakov

55 · Stefan Čolović

21 · Vasilije Đurić

5 · Darko Terzić

12 · Kosta Rakonić

28 · Strahinja Jović

23 · Matija Županjac

4 · Vladimir Ilić

11 · Vladimir Rakić

50 · Bojan Matić

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cukaricki

4-2-3-1

81 Vladan Čarapić

24 Nikola Stanković

23 Ismael Maiga

26 Milan Đoković

3 Zlatan Šehović

72 Uroš Nikolić

5 Marko Docić

51 Remy Rees-Dottin

10 Uroš Miladinović

8 Lazar Marković

99 Đorđe Jovanović

Coach · M. S. Jakšić

Substitutes

19 · Assane Ouedraogo

18 · Karel Mustmaa

9 · Luka Đorđević

73 · Nemanja Miletić

50 · Milan Pavkov

12 · Lazar Kaličanin

4 · Nenad Tomović

77 · Andrej Bajović

20 · Aboubacar Cisse

86 · Veljko Radosavljević

87 · Mateja Prokopijević

Macva

4-2-3-1

89 Vukašin Jovanović

17 Nikola Lainović

26 Uroš Drezgić

35 Issa Kone

33 Uroš Blagojević

34 Danilo Knežević

8 Boško Vraštanović

10 Mitar Ergelaš

30 Đorđe Đorđić

27 Luka Pejović

99 Nikša Delibašić

Coach · N. Glušica

Substitutes

44 · Nemanja Stevanović

9 · Milan Vidakov

55 · Stefan Čolović

21 · Vasilije Đurić

5 · Darko Terzić

12 · Kosta Rakonić

28 · Strahinja Jović

23 · Matija Županjac

4 · Vladimir Ilić

11 · Vladimir Rakić

50 · Bojan Matić

Our number · cukaricki winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

55% The market60%

Us55%

~~Market~~60%

We make Cukaricki a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cukaricki win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 60% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cukaricki win	55%	60%	−5
Draw	27%	24%	+2
Macva win	18%	15%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	45%	47%	−3
Both teams to score	46%	46%	0
Over 1.5 goals	71%	71%	0
Over 3.5 goals	24%	27%	−4
Cukaricki or draw	82%	85%	−3
Cukaricki clean sheet	44%	–	–
Macva clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 10.0 6.1 3.0 1 12.8 12.4 4.7 2 11.2 9.0 3.8 3 6.2 4.9 2.1 4 2.6 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cukaricki down, Macva across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,564 Super Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Cukaricki at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Macva away: 0.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Cukaricki, 0.83 for Macva. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:36. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Super Liga

CUKARICKI

WLLLDL2–0 · 0–4 · 0–5 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–2

MACVA

LWDDLL1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	10	+21	28
2	Vojvodina	10	+11	22
3	Radnicki 1923	9	+8	17
4	Mladost Lucani	10	−2	16
5	IMT Novi Beograd	10	+5	15
6	Železničar Pančevo	9	+4	14
7	Radnik Surdulica	10	−1	14
8	Novi Pazar	10	−1	13
9	Cukaricki	10	−6	11
10	OFK Beograd	10	−8	9
11	FK Partizan	9	−2	8
12	Radnicki NIS	9	−5	8
13	Macva	10	−11	8
14	Zemun	10	−13	3