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TSC Backa Topola v Metalac GM

TSC Backa Topola
5–1Full time
Metalac GM

Prva Liga · SAT 17 OCT · TSC Arena

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40
TSC Backa Topola 5–1 Metalac GM TSC BACKA TOPOLA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said TSC Backa Topola win56%
The market said72%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.290
The market’s Brier score0.121

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said TSC Backa Topola win at 56%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: TSC Backa Topola was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–25–19
  3. 1′KICK-OFF TSC Backa Topola v Metalac GM
  4. 5′A goal for TSC Backa Topola on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–12–7
  5. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' TSC Backa Topola 1–0 Metalac GM
  6. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' TSC Backa Topola win: 56% at kick-off, 81% now
  7. 6′We published TSC Backa Topola at 56%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–12–6
  8. 15′Metalac GM score on 14′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 53–28–19
  9. 15′⚽ GOAL · 14' TSC Backa Topola 1–1 Metalac GM
  10. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' TSC Backa Topola win: 56% at kick-off, 53% now
  11. 16′15′: O. Lukovic on the scoresheet for Metalac GM, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 53–28–19
  12. 24′TSC Backa Topola find the net on 23′. 2–1. 2–1 · 81–14–5
  13. 24′⚽ GOAL · 23' TSC Backa Topola 2–1 Metalac GM
  14. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' TSC Backa Topola win: 56% at kick-off, 81% now
  15. 30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 81–14–5
  16. 45′HALF-TIME TSC Backa Topola 2–1 Metalac GM
  17. 46′SECOND HALF TSC Backa Topola 2–1 Metalac GM
  18. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Metalac GM
  19. 62′We published TSC Backa Topola at 56%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  20. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 57' TSC Backa Topola · On: M. Soprenic · Off: A. Petrovic
  21. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 57' TSC Backa Topola · On: N. Nikolic · Off: B. Burmaz
  22. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Metalac GM · On: V. Djordjevic · Off: Y. Koffi
  23. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Metalac GM · On: D. Milinkovic · Off: P. Ntim
  24. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' TSC Backa Topola win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
  25. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Metalac GM
  26. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Metalac GM
  27. 71′A goal for TSC Backa Topola on 70′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  28. 71′We published TSC Backa Topola at 56%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  29. 71′⚽ GOAL · 70' TSC Backa Topola 3–1 Metalac GM
  30. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' TSC Backa Topola win: 56% at kick-off, 99% now
  31. 72′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  32. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' TSC Backa Topola · On: A. Stancic · Off: V. Krstic
  33. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Metalac GM · On: J. Vojnovic · Off: J. Kalicanin
  34. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Metalac GM · On: E. Egeoluoha · Off: O. Lukovic
  35. 73′TSC Backa Topola score on 73′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  36. 73′We published TSC Backa Topola at 56%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  37. 73′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  38. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' TSC Backa Topola 4–1 Metalac GM
  39. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Metalac GM · On: L. Puzovic · Off: S. Vukasinovic
  40. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' TSC Backa Topola · On: S. Mladenovic · Off: M. Neskovic
  41. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' TSC Backa Topola · On: V. Becze · Off: S. Jovanovic
  42. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' TSC Backa Topola
  43. 86′TSC Backa Topola find the net on 86′. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  44. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' TSC Backa Topola 5–1 Metalac GM
  45. 87′6 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  46. FTFULL TIME TSC Backa Topola 5–1 Metalac GM
  47. FTTSC Backa Topola 5–1 Metalac GM · TSC Backa Topola win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

TSC Backa Topola are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: TSC Backa Topola 56%, draw 25%, Metalac GM 19%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on TSC Backa Topola v Metalac GMBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

TSC Backa Topola win56%
Draw25%
Metalac GM win19%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueTSC Arena

Line-ups

TSC Backa Topola

Metalac GM

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

TSC Backa Topola

Metalac GM

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Prva Liga

Last match: 10 Oct · Prva Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2TSC Backa Topola13+1427
8Metalac GM13+118

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

TSC Backa Topola

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Simic

4 V. Krstic

5 L. Stojsavljevic

7 M. Radin

8 S. Jovanovic

9 B. Burmaz

11 M. Neskovic

24 A. Stojanovic

30 A. Stojkovic

33 D. Tegeltija

80 A. Petrovic

Coach · Nenad Milijas

Substitutes

23 · N. Jorgic

73 · N. Bursac

12 · N. Nikolic

15 · S. Mladenovic

16 · A. Stancic

22 · S. Jovanovic

27 · A. Milasinovic

36 · U. Mihailovic

37 · L. Djurdjevic

55 · M. Soprenic

77 · V. Becze

Metalac GM

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Premovic

4 I. Milicevic

5 L. Milojevic

6 S. Vukasinovic

9 Y. Koffi

18 V. Topalovic

22 J. Kalicanin

23 S. Bastic

29 P. Ntim

32 B. Mijailovic

45 O. Lukovic

Coach · Srdjan Bugarski

Substitutes

12 · V. Curcic

2 · J. Vojnovic

3 · V. Djordjevic

7 · I. Kovacevic

11 · S. Veselinovic

14 · D. Starcevic

19 · A. Lazarevic

21 · L. Puzovic

24 · D. Vrbic

35 · E. Egeoluoha

99 · D. Milinkovic

Our number · tsc backa topola winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off
56% The market72%
Us56%
Market72%

We make TSC Backa Topola a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · TSC Backa Topola v Metalac GM1.79 – 0.93
Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 11 SeptW3 D3 L0 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 27 v 182 v 8
The market · TSC Backa Topola win72% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70%75% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 16:05
Our probability · TSC Backa Topola win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
TSC Backa Topola win56%72%−16
Draw25%19%+6
Metalac GM win19%9%+10
Over 2.5 goals51%56%−5
Both teams to score51%44%+7
Over 1.5 goals76%77%−1
Over 3.5 goals29%36%−7
TSC Backa Topola or draw81%91%−10
TSC Backa Topola clean sheet40%––
Metalac GM clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%
0123450 8.0 5.2 2.9 1 10.8 11.8 5.0 2 10.4 9.5 4.4 3 6.2 5.7 2.6 4 2.9 2.6 5
under 2% 5% 12%+TSC Backa Topola down, Metalac GM across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting4.50
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsTSC 1–2 MET · MET 2–4 TSC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 11 Sept

TSC BACKA TOPOLA

WDDDWW4–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 4–1

METALAC GM

WWWWDL5–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Borac Cacak13+728
2TSC Backa Topola13+1427
3OFK Vršac14+425
4Javor13+1524
5Semendrija 192413+724
6Dubočica13−119
7FK Vozdovac13+218
8Metalac GM13+118
9Loznica13−218
10Napredak13−218
11FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV13−615
12Naftagas13+414
13Teleoptik14−713
14Grafičar13−711
15Jedinstvo Ub13−128
16OFK Bor 191913−178

The competition's standings before kick-off.