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Teleoptik v TSC Backa Topola

Teleoptik

1–2Full time

TSC Backa Topola

Prva Liga · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:31

Teleoptik 1–2 TSC Backa Topola TSC BACKA TOPOLA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said TSC Backa Topola win~~45%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.448

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.268

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said TSC Backa Topola win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: TSC Backa Topola 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 29–25–45
1′KICK-OFF Teleoptik v TSC Backa Topola
11′A goal for TSC Backa Topola on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–17–71
11′We said TSC Backa Topola at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 12–17–71
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Teleoptik 0–1 TSC Backa Topola
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' TSC Backa Topola win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' TSC Backa Topola
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Teleoptik
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 10–18–72
41′Teleoptik score on 41′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 27–35–38
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Teleoptik 1–1 TSC Backa Topola
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' TSC Backa Topola win: 45% at kick-off, 38% now
43′GOAL DISALLOWED · 43' Teleoptik
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' TSC Backa Topola win: 45% at kick-off, 73% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' TSC Backa Topola
45′HALF-TIME Teleoptik 0–1 TSC Backa Topola
46′SECOND HALF Teleoptik 0–1 TSC Backa Topola
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' TSC Backa Topola
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' TSC Backa Topola win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
54′Teleoptik score on 54′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 25–41–34
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Teleoptik 1–1 TSC Backa Topola
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' TSC Backa Topola win: 45% at kick-off, 34% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was TSC Backa Topola win 75%)
56′We said TSC Backa Topola at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 24–43–33
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' TSC Backa Topola · On: S. Jovanovic · Off: M. Neskovic
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' TSC Backa Topola · On: B. Burmaz · Off: M. Milosavic
64′We said TSC Backa Topola at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 21–50–29
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' TSC Backa Topola
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' TSC Backa Topola win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
71′We said TSC Backa Topola at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 18–58–24
74′TSC Backa Topola find the net on 73′. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–84
74′We said TSC Backa Topola at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–2 · 2–14–84
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Teleoptik 1–2 TSC Backa Topola
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' TSC Backa Topola win: 45% at kick-off, 84% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' TSC Backa Topola win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 61%)
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Teleoptik · On: D. Radovic · Off: M. Ninic
76′We said TSC Backa Topola at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' TSC Backa Topola win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
78′TSC Backa Topola ahead on 74′ through M. Soprenic. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–12–87
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Teleoptik · On: D. Janackovic · Off: N. Popovic
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Teleoptik · On: D. Makevic · Off: S. Scepovic
82′We said TSC Backa Topola at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' TSC Backa Topola · On: A. Todoroski · Off: N. Nikolic
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' TSC Backa Topola · On: L. Stojsavljevic · Off: A. Stancic
88′We said TSC Backa Topola at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' TSC Backa Topola win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Teleoptik · On: F. Ristic · Off: F. Ivelja
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Teleoptik · On: D. Obrenovic · Off: L. Radosavljevic
93′SUBSTITUTION · 89' TSC Backa Topola · On: S. Jovanovic · Off: A. Stojanovic
FTFULL TIME Teleoptik 1–2 TSC Backa Topola
FTTeleoptik 1–2 TSC Backa Topola · TSC Backa Topola win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

TSC Backa Topola are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Teleoptik 29%, draw 25%, TSC Backa Topola 45%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Teleoptik v TSC Backa TopolaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Teleoptik win29%

Draw25%

TSC Backa Topola win45%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Teleoptik

TSC Backa Topola

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Prva Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · Prva Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tsc backa topola winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market58%

Us45%

~~Market~~58%

We make TSC Backa Topola a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Teleoptik v TSC Backa Topola~~1.35 – 1.73

~~Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 30~~13 v 1

~~The market · TSC Backa Topola win~~58% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · TSC Backa Topola win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Teleoptik win	29%	20%	+9
Draw	25%	23%	+2
TSC Backa Topola win	45%	58%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	59%	61%	−2
Both teams to score	61%	59%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	80%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	40%	−3
Teleoptik or draw	55%	42%	+13
Teleoptik clean sheet	18%	–	–
TSC Backa Topola clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.9 7.0 6.9 4.0 1 5.3 11.6 9.0 5.2 2.3 2 4.2 7.0 6.0 3.5 3 3.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Teleoptik down, TSC Backa Topola across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,596 Prva Liga matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Prva Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 112 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Teleoptik at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). TSC Backa Topola away: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Teleoptik, 1.73 for TSC Backa Topola. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 16 Sept

TELEOPTIK

LLLWWL0–2 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–1

TSC BACKA TOPOLA

DDDWWW1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 4–1 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	TSC Backa Topola	14	+18	30
2	Borac Cacak	14	+7	29
3	Javor	14	+18	27
4	Semendrija 1924	14	+7	25
5	OFK Vršac	14	+4	25
6	Napredak	14	−1	21
7	FK Vozdovac	14	+2	19
8	Loznica	14	−2	19
9	Dubočica	14	−2	19
10	Metalac GM	14	−3	18
11	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	14	−6	16
12	Naftagas	14	+4	15
13	Teleoptik	14	−7	13
14	Grafičar	14	−9	11
15	Jedinstvo Ub	14	−10	11
16	OFK Bor 1919	14	−20	8