Semendrija 1924 v Naftagas prediction · Prva Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Semendrija 1924 1–1 Naftagas SEMENDRIJA 1924 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Semendrija 1924 win~~46%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.781

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.080

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Semendrija 1924 win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Semendrija 1924 was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–29–25
1′KICK-OFF Semendrija 1924 v Naftagas
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Naftagas
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Semendrija 1924 win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Semendrija 1924 win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME Semendrija 1924 0–0 Naftagas
46′SECOND HALF Semendrija 1924 0–0 Naftagas
49′We said Semendrija 1924 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–22
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Semendrija 1924
55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–48–20
59′Naftagas score on 59′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 7–23–70
59′We said Semendrija 1924 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–23–70
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Semendrija 1924 0–1 Naftagas
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Semendrija 1924
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Semendrija 1924 win: 46% at kick-off, 7% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Naftagas win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 23%)
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Semendrija 1924 win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Semendrija 1924 · On: M. Vranjanin · Off: L. Kolarevic
65′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Semendrija 1924 · On: T. Joseph · Off: L. Milunovic
65′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Semendrija 1924 · On: A. Preradov · Off: A. Lutovac
67′We said Semendrija 1924 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Naftagas · On: M. Kovacevic · Off: V. Siladji
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Naftagas
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Semendrija 1924 · On: N. Zaric · Off: V. Karajcic
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Semendrija 1924
79′Semendrija 1924 find the net on 79′. 1–1. 1–1 · 14–76–10
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Naftagas · On: M. Arsovic · Off: M. Stankovic
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Naftagas · On: N. Gavric · Off: M. Arsovic
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Semendrija 1924 1–1 Naftagas
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Semendrija 1924 win: 46% at kick-off, 14% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Naftagas win 10%)
80′We said Semendrija 1924 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–78–9
80′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 13–78–9
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Naftagas
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Semendrija 1924 win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
FTFULL TIME Semendrija 1924 1–1 Naftagas
FTSemendrija 1924 1–1 Naftagas · Semendrija 1924 win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Semendrija 1924 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Semendrija 1924 46%, draw 29%, Naftagas 25%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Semendrija 1924 v NaftagasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Semendrija 1924 win46%

Draw29%

Naftagas win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueStadion FK Smederevo

Line-ups

Semendrija 1924

Naftagas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Semendrija 1924

Naftagas

5Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · Prva Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · Prva Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Semendrija 1924	13	+7	24
12	Naftagas	13	+4	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Semendrija 1924

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Mirkovic

3 S. Petkoski Cimbaljevic

6 S. Mitrovic

7 V. Karajcic

11 N. Kodzic

13 A. Popov

14 M. Orescanin

15 L. Kolarevic

26 L. Drobnjak

30 A. Lutovac

40 L. Milunovic

Coach · Nenad Mijailovic

Substitutes

12 · D. Knezevic

2 · N. Zaric

5 · M. Vranjanin

8 · N. Stojkovic

16 · T. Joseph

18 · A. Sawadogo

22 · B. Rmus

23 · L. Cakovan

24 · U. Filipovic

27 · A. Preradov

29 · V. Radojevic

Naftagas

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Peric

2 K. Opoku Ackah

3 D. Bajic

4 B. Blagojevic

5 M. Ozegovic

9 V. Siladji

11 M. Savanovic

15 I. Jelicic

24 M. Stevanovic

27 S. Ilic

55 M. Stankovic

Coach · –

Substitutes

25 · N. Galin

6 · L. Rochester

7 · M. Kovacevic

10 · S. Trajkovic

16 · N. Gavric

19 · M. Goronjic

21 · D. Dodic

22 · G. Mendy

29 · M. Arsovic

77 · L. Vucurovic

88 · N. Pantic

Our number · semendrija 1924 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market68%

Us46%

~~Market~~68%

We make Semendrija 1924 a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 22 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Semendrija 1924 v Naftagas~~1.44 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 10 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 14~~5 v 12

~~The market · Semendrija 1924 win~~68% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Semendrija 1924 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Semendrija 1924 win	46%	68%	−22
Draw	29%	22%	+7
Naftagas win	25%	11%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	44%	48%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	41%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	71%	71%	0
Over 3.5 goals	23%	28%	−5
Semendrija 1924 or draw	75%	89%	−14
Semendrija 1924 clean sheet	37%	–	–
Naftagas clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.2 7.6 4.4 1 11.3 13.5 6.2 2.1 2 9.0 8.8 4.4 3 4.4 4.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Semendrija 1924 down, Naftagas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,589 Prva Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Prva Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Semendrija 1924 at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Naftagas away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Semendrija 1924, 1.00 for Naftagas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~NAF 2–1 SEM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 10 Sept

SEMENDRIJA 1924

LWWWWL1–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

NAFTAGAS

DDLWWD1–1 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 3–0 · 6–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borac Cacak	13	+7	28
2	TSC Backa Topola	13	+14	27
3	OFK Vršac	14	+4	25
4	Javor	13	+15	24
5	Semendrija 1924	13	+7	24
6	Dubočica	13	−1	19
7	FK Vozdovac	13	+2	18
8	Metalac GM	13	+1	18
9	Loznica	13	−2	18
10	Napredak	13	−2	18
11	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	13	−6	15
12	Naftagas	13	+4	14
13	Teleoptik	14	−7	13
14	Grafičar	13	−7	11
15	Jedinstvo Ub	13	−12	8
16	OFK Bor 1919	13	−17	8