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Napredak v Dubočica

Napredak
1–0Full time
Dubočica

Prva Liga · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40
Napredak 1–0 Dubočica NAPREDAK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Napredak win50%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.381
The market’s Brier score0.386

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Napredak win at 50%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Napredak 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–29–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Napredak v Dubočica
  4. 19′SUBSTITUTION · 18' Dubočica · On: N. Ela · Off: D. Ivic
  5. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Napredak
  6. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Dubočica
  7. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Napredak win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
  8. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Dubočica
  9. 45′We said Napredak at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–42–20
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Napredak 0–0 Dubočica
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Napredak 0–0 Dubočica
  12. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Napredak win 37%)
  13. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dubočica · On: D. Zivkovic · Off: M. Fara
  14. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' N. Ela · Dubočica
  15. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Dubočica
  16. 54′We said Napredak at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–18
  17. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Napredak
  18. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 34–48–18
  19. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Napredak win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
  20. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Napredak · On: D. Miladinovic · Off: N. Stevanovic
  21. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Napredak · On: F. Stuparevic · Off: P. Gigic
  22. 63′We said Napredak at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
  23. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dubočica · On: M. Miraljemovic · Off: L. P. Sidibe M.
  24. 70′We said Napredak at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–13
  25. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Dubočica
  26. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Napredak win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  27. 75′We said Napredak at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
  28. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Napredak · On: P. Bogdanovic · Off: N. Sreckovic
  29. 79′A goal for Napredak on 79′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 91–8–0
  30. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Napredak 1–0 Dubočica
  31. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Napredak win: 50% at kick-off, 91% now
  32. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Napredak win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 8%)
  33. 80′We said Napredak at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–0 · 92–8–0
  34. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Napredak win: 50% at kick-off, 92% now
  35. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Dubočica · On: A. Markovic · Off: F. Klaric
  36. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Dubočica · On: M. Andjelkovic · Off: L. Stojanovic
  37. 84′We said Napredak at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  38. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Napredak
  39. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Napredak · On: A. Andrejevic · Off: M. Zuvic
  40. FTFULL TIME Napredak 1–0 Dubočica
  41. FTNapredak 1–0 Dubočica · Napredak win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Napredak are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Napredak 50%, draw 28%, Dubočica 22%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Napredak v DubočicaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Napredak win50%
Draw28%
Dubočica win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 14

Line-ups

Napredak

Dubočica

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Napredak

Dubočica

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Prva Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · Prva Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Dubočica13−119
10Napredak13−218

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Napredak

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Balevic

4 F. Krstic

11 S. Milosevic

18 N. Stevanovic

20 N. Marinkovic

27 N. Bukumira

33 V. Bogdanovic

44 L. Miladinovic

77 N. Sreckovic

88 P. Gigic

95 M. Zuvic

Coach · Sasa Micovic

Substitutes

84 · F. Novakovic

5 · D. Danicic

6 · S. Ristic

7 · P. Bogdanovic

9 · F. Stuparevic

17 · A. Vlaisavljevic

22 · A. Andrejevic

55 · D. Miladinovic

70 · A. Novakovic

89 · L. Krstovic

99 · A. Stamenkovic

Dubočica

Formation not confirmed

32 A. Milojevic

3 F. Klaric

4 S. Santos

5 M. Stojanovic

6 L. P. Sidibe M.

9 D. Ivic

21 M. Novakovic

22 L. Stojanovic

23 A. Pavlovic

30 M. Zlatkovic

33 M. Fara

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Mladenovic

2 · A. Markovic

8 · M. Miraljemovic

11 · D. Zivkovic

14 · M. Petrovic

18 · A. Umar

20 · M. Andjelkovic

25 · B. Balaz

41 · N. Ela

50 · M. Ljubenovic

91 · P. Bezarevic

Our number · napredak winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
50% The market49%
Us50%
Market49%

We make Napredak a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Napredak v Dubočica1.50 – 0.91
Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 11 SeptW1 D2 L3 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 18 v 1910 v 6
The market · Napredak win49% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 16:05
Our probability · Napredak win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Napredak win50%49%+1
Draw28%28%0
Dubočica win22%23%−1
Over 2.5 goals43%47%−4
Both teams to score47%50%−3
Over 1.5 goals70%70%0
Over 3.5 goals23%27%−4
Napredak or draw78%77%+1
Napredak clean sheet41%––
Dubočica clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%
0123450 10.5 7.1 3.8 1 12.3 13.2 5.5 2 10.0 8.9 4.1 3 5.1 4.5 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Napredak down, Dubočica across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 11 Sept

NAPREDAK

LLLDWD0–1 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 0–0

DUBOČICA

LWDDDW0–5 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Borac Cacak13+728
2TSC Backa Topola13+1427
3OFK Vršac14+425
4Javor13+1524
5Semendrija 192413+724
6Dubočica13−119
7FK Vozdovac13+218
8Metalac GM13+118
9Loznica13−218
10Napredak13−218
11FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV13−615
12Naftagas13+414
13Teleoptik14−713
14Grafičar13−711
15Jedinstvo Ub13−128
16OFK Bor 191913−178

The competition's standings before kick-off.